Chapter 287: AP Poll
The TV was on SportsCenter. Andrew, Steve, Leonard, Howard, Haley, Rachel, and Monica were spread out across the couches.
"It’s about to start, five minutes..." Steve said enthusiastically, glancing at the clock.
"If UCLA doesn’t show up in the top, I’m complaining on Twitter," Howard commented.
Monica nodded, completely in agreement, for once on the same page as him.
"What was this poll for again?" Haley asked, sitting cross-legged, phone in hand, barely looking up with disinterest.
Andrew, as if wound up, leaned slightly forward.
He explained that the AP Poll was a weekly ranking of the best college football teams, put together by the Associated Press, listing the top 25 teams at the moment. He clarified that it wasn’t done by a computer, but voted on by roughly sixty sports journalists, each with their own top 25.
He went on to detail how each journalist ranked teams from number one to twenty-five, assigning points based on position: twenty-five points for first place, twenty-four for second, and so on. Then all the votes were added up, and the team with the highest total score became the number one team in the country.
"And that’s basically it," Andrew concluded, looking at his cousin, expecting some kind of reaction.
"Oh... I see," Haley said, without much interest, returning her attention to her phone.
Andrew blinked once, a slight twitch in his eye.
But before he said something, Rachel spoke from beside him, her tone curious. "But what do they base it on?" she asked. "The teams haven’t even played a game yet."
"Good question," Andrew said, leaning forward again slightly.
Rachel rested her chin on her hand, watching him closely. More than the answer itself, she liked the way he spoke, so enthusiastic about what was, essentially, just a ranking.
Andrew explained that since no games had been played yet, voters relied on other factors: last season’s performance, coaching staff changes, the quality of the recruiting class, and, to a large extent, the level of expectation surrounding the team.
Rachel nodded, processing. "So UCLA gets hurt because of last season..."
Andrew gave a small nod.
"But the new staff should be a positive, right?" Rachel added.
"Exactly," Andrew replied, clearly pleased that she was following and reasoning it out well. "Mora comes from the NFL, that carries weight. And then there’s Chow, who’s considered an offensive guru. That helps."
The coaching change was, in fact, a point in their favor. If the previous coach had stayed, the outlook would be different. Four years without solid results weighed heavily, even with a strong influx of talent. The change had been well received.
But what really tipped the scale was something else.
The recruiting class.
UCLA had finished as the number two class in the country, something extremely difficult to achieve. And within that class was Andrew, almost unanimously considered the best high school prospect in history.
That’s where the program’s projections took off.
Talent and expectation.
"And does it update after that?" Rachel asked.
Andrew nodded. "Every week, after the weekend games, the journalists vote again."
If you win, you move up. If you start, for example, at number 24 and win, you can climb one or several spots depending on how the game went, margin of victory, the opponent you faced, all of that matters.
If you lose, the same applies in reverse. It’s not the same to lose by a few points to a strong team as it is to lose to a weaker one. In the first case, you drop a little; in the second, quite a bit more.
It’s important because it defines a team’s reputation. It doesn’t directly determine the champion, but it heavily influences how each program is perceived and the official rankings that are used later.
And, above all, it’s what everyone looks at.
In NCAA Division I there are 124 teams, so making that top 25 is already a significant achievement.
That’s why when two ranked teams face each other, those games tend to be the most watched.
"We could just check the rankings online, they should already be out," Howard suggested.
Howard already knew that, in reality, the rankings were usually published first on the web, on sports sites, a few minutes before the TV segment began.
"Of course not!" Steve, Monica, and Andrew said in unison.
"It takes away the mystique," Steve added.
Monica nodded several times. "It’s much more exciting to watch it on TV."
Andrew nodded as well, in agreement.
Howard looked at them, a bit surprised. "Jesus... alright," he said, setting his phone aside.
"What are your predictions?" Monica asked, looking specifically at Steve and Andrew.
"Number one between USC or Alabama," Andrew replied.
Steve nodded, agreeing.
"As for us... I’d say somewhere between 20 and 25. If I had to pick a number, 22," Andrew added.
"I’m going to be more ambitious: number 20," Steve said.
Andrew looked at Monica. "You?"
"Number nineteen," she replied.
Andrew nodded slightly, a faint smile forming. He wasn’t sure if she was saying it based on analysis or because 19 was him number.
Then he noticed Rachel looking at him expectantly.
"And you?" Andrew asked, giving her the floor.
"Number seventeen!" Rachel answered, having come up with it while they were talking.
She didn’t have much reference for the rest of the teams, but her confidence didn’t seem to need it.
Leonard and Howard glanced at each other for a second, ’And we don’t matter?’ they both thought almost at the same time.
But they didn’t get to say anything, because from the TV came the unmistakable ESPN music.
The program was starting.
The conversations cut off instantly and everyone turned their heads toward the TV.
[Good afternoon. The preseason AP Top 25 is out...] announced the host, the well-known Rece Davis.
There weren’t many introductions, but alongside him were Kirk Herbstreit, David Pollack, and Jesse Palmer.
On screen, the graphics appeared: a clean grid, with team logos arranged from 1 to 25.
Everyone’s eyes moved at the same time.
Searching.
Even Haley put her phone aside, leaning slightly forward, now actually interested.
And then they found it. The Bruins logo.
Number 17.
"Seventeen! I win!" Rachel exclaimed immediately, raising her hands with a huge smile.
It wasn’t real competitiveness. Just excitement from getting it right almost at random.
"Tch... by two," Monica muttered, crossing her arms, clearly not pleased about losing, even though it wasn’t even a real competition.
"Better than expected..." Steve said quietly, bringing a hand to his chin.
Andrew didn’t say anything.
He stayed looking at the screen, going over the full ranking, not just their position.
But his gaze kept returning there.
Like Steve, he was somewhat surprised by how high they had landed. He had thought they’d be somewhere between 20 and 25.
It had been years since UCLA appeared in that ranking. The last time had been in 2008, barely at number 25.
Now they were back.
The hype was much higher than he had imagined. He had already been feeling it, in the atmosphere, on social media, around the university itself, but seeing it reflected in the most important journalist-voted poll made it feel much more real.
[As expected, USC starts the season at number one, even ahead of Alabama. What do you think about that?] Rece asked, turning to his colleagues.
Jesse, a former NFL quarterback, spoke up, [Deserved. Barkley stayed, and they have, without a doubt, one of the best offenses in the country, if not the best. Plus, they return 18 starters.]
The others on the panel nodded, some with more conviction than others.
"Returning starters?" Rachel asked.
"Players who started last season and are still on the team this year," Andrew replied, without taking his eyes off the TV. "In college, it matters a lot because the roster changes constantly. Every three or four years, almost everything turns over."
Teams that manage to keep many starters generate more confidence, more experience, better chemistry, and generally make fewer mistakes.
Kirk Herbstreit then chimed in, [Even so, I think number one should’ve been Alabama. They’re the reigning national champions.]
The debate over the number one and two spots started immediately. It was the most compelling way to open the show before working down the rankings.
USC was coming off a 10–2 season, finishing the year at a very high level. If not for sanctions, they would have played for the Pac-12 championship and a major bowl. Now, without those restrictions, the general feeling was clear: USC was back.
And not just that.
Matt Barkley had already completed three years in the program, which allowed him to declare for the NFL Draft in April 2012. However, he decided to stay. He talked about having "unfinished business": a national title, and the Heisman. Something uncommon for a quarterback of his level, who would normally make the jump at that point.
USC’s offense was simply brutal. Two running backs who had rushed for over a thousand yards the previous season. Two receivers with over a thousand yards as well. And a quarterback who had thrown for more than 3,500 yards.
All within a system already established under Lane Kiffin.
The only question mark was the defense. It wasn’t elite, and it remained to be seen whether they could carry the weight of expectations.
On the other side, Alabama Crimson Tide football came in at 12–1 with the national title in hand after dominating LSU in the championship.
Nick Saban’s system remained practically perfect. But they had lost key pieces to the NFL and didn’t have a media figure like Barkley.
Probably the best team, but not the most eye-catching.
"Tch, Redd shouldn’t be allowed to start at USC," Steve complained.
Monica nodded. "Their university covers up crimes, but they let him transfer and play immediately, hypocrites," she huffed.
Andrew didn’t say anything. He looked more thoughtful, but he agreed.
"Look, the NCAA made an ad hoc exception, it didn’t change the general rule," Howard added.
Leonard adjusted his glasses. "Exactly. And the players weren’t responsible for the scandal."
Rachel and Haley exchanged a glance, not understanding, then turned back to them.
"Explain it for normal people," Haley said curiously.
Andrew looked at her. "Explain it so you can say ’oh... I see’ and go back to your phone?" he replied, mimicking her earlier tone.
Rachel couldn’t help but let out a small laugh.
"I don’t sound like that," Haley scoffed. "And this sounds more interesting than a poll... come on, what’s it about? A sanction?"
Andrew sighed, but gave in and started explaining, while on ESPN the rankings continued to drop, getting closer to number 17.
Penn State Nittany Lions football is one of the most important programs in the country. They play in the Big Ten, in a massive stadium with over a hundred thousand people. The famous "White Out," with the entire stadium dressed in white, is one of the most imposing atmospheres in college sports.
But last year, 2011, everything changed.
One of the most serious scandals in college sports history came to light. The central figure was Jerry Sandusky, a longtime defensive assistant and right-hand man to the legendary Joe Paterno. He was a respected figure, almost untouchable within the program.
In November of that year, he was arrested and charged with sexually abusing multiple minors over more than a decade. Some of those abuses took place within the university’s own facilities.
An independent investigation revealed that top officials, including Paterno himself, had been aware of allegations years earlier and failed to report them to the police, in part to avoid damage to the program’s image.
Days after the arrest, Paterno was fired after more than forty years as head coach. The university president also lost his position.
And that was just the beginning.
The NCAA imposed severe sanctions: a massive fine directed toward prevention programs, a four-year bowl ban, scholarship reductions, and something that hit fans especially hard, the vacating of all the program’s wins over more than a decade.
Haley and Rachel listened in silence, visibly shaken.
"They should watch more TV..." Howard commented, looking at them in disbelief. It was a story that had gone far beyond sports.
Rachel shook her head slightly, still processing. "That’s... insane."
Now, in June, the trial against Jerry Sandusky would take place. He was facing dozens of charges for child sexual abuse, and everything pointed to him receiving a sentence of several decades in prison, in practice, the rest of his life, considering his age.
"They should give him the death penalty," Steve said, frowning.
"Impossible," Leonard replied with a sigh. "Even though it exists in Pennsylvania, it’s reserved for first-degree murder cases."
Andrew stepped in before the conversation drifted into something heavier.
"The point," he said, getting back on track, "is that, beyond the sanctions, the NCAA allowed Penn State players to transfer and play immediately. That’s an exception. Normally, if you transfer, you have to sit out a year."
Rachel nodded, understanding.
That decision had been heavily criticized. It broke one of the system’s core rules. That one-year "sit-out" period existed to prevent constant transfers and keep competitive balance. However, in this case, the NCAA chose to make an exception.
And that directly benefited other programs.
Like USC, which added Silas Redd, a running back coming off a 1,000-yard season, without having to wait the mandatory year.
"At least they lost their best players, right?" Rachel said naturally. "You could see that as another kind of punishment."
There was a brief silence.
Everyone looked at her.
Steve smiled and gave her a light pat on the shoulder. "Looking at it that way... that’s solid logic."
He preferred Penn State to completely collapse and take years to recover.
The attention shifted back to the TV when—
[UCLA...] said Rece Davis, leaving a deliberate pause he hadn’t used for the other teams.
[Number seventeen,] he finally continued, turning to the panel. [Thoughts?]
[Deserved. They have one of the best classes in the country, and the GOAT of high school,] Jesse replied without hesitation.
Kirk tilted his head. [I don’t know... I’d say they’re a bit overrated. I’d put them as a solid top 20.]
[Before we talk about overrated or underrated...] David jumped in, [First, what do we expect from UCLA? Record? Bowl?]
[Based on the roster, even if they’re freshmen, we already know who the starting quarterback is...] Jesse began.
The names were already public knowledge. In just one day, UCLA had officially named Andrew as QB1, and the offense included several freshmen, including Steve.
[I’ve seen him work magic for two years in high school. They have to make a bowl, and not just any bowl. Holiday Bowl, or Alamo Bowl. At minimum, with the level that kid has,] Jesse continued.
[For that, they’ll need around a 9–3 record,] Rece added.
[Difficult, but not impossible,] Kirk joined in. [They have the talent. Even if it’s one of the offenses with the most freshman starters, they should be capable of it. If they end up in a lower-tier bowl, it would be a disappointment.]
Rachel couldn’t help but look at Andrew.
He was right there beside her, the same guy those experienced analysts were talking about with such certainty, with clear praise and expectations. Even without knowing him personally, they spoke with the confidence of people who recognized something special.
Haley frowned slightly. ’Those expectations are really high...’ she thought.
It wasn’t that she doubted her cousin, but context mattered.
Matt Barkley, for example, had also started as a freshman. But he did it at USC, a program already established, used to competing at the top, to being in the top 25 almost every year.
UCLA wasn’t that.
In his first year, Barkley finished with an 8–4 record. And even that wasn’t enough to get into a truly major bowl.
USC ended up playing in the Emerald Bowl, a lower-tier game. A good season, but far from elite.
The bowl system in college football was structured like this:
At the top were the BCS Bowls: Rose Bowl, Sugar Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, Orange Bowl, and the National Championship Game, the most prestigious of all. To get there, in most cases, you had to be a conference champion or one of the best teams in the country.
One level below were important bowls, but not elite: Holiday Bowl, Alamo Bowl, Cotton Bowl, Outback Bowl. Solid teams that hadn’t won their conference but were still highly competitive.
Then came the mid-tier: Sun Bowl, Las Vegas Bowl, Insight Bowl. Teams with records like 7–5.
And finally, the lower-tier bowls, for teams that barely reached the minimum requirement: six wins. A 6–6 record that just kept you in the conversation.
Even so, it wasn’t all that linear.
It wasn’t just about the record.
Conference standing also mattered, along with tiebreakers and how bowl invitations were distributed. You could have a solid record and still end up in a lower-tier bowl if other teams with the same record had priority.
Just like it had happened to USC Trojans that year. They finished 8–4, a strong record, and still didn’t make the Holiday Bowl, which was exactly the kind of bowl analysts were now expecting Andrew to lead UCLA to after several years of not even competing in third-tier bowls.
Although, to be fair, UCLA Bruins had appeared in one recently.
In 2010, still under Rick Neuheisel, they played in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl, a third-tier bowl. But the context had been unusual: they finished the season 4–8 and got in due to a lack of eligible teams. And they lost it.
Then, in 2011, something even more unusual happened. Because of sanctions against USC, UCLA ended up playing in the Pac-12 Championship Game, a scenario they likely wouldn’t have reached under normal circumstances. They lost that as well.
Still, that same year they had managed to reach six wins, so even without that situation, they probably would have ended up in some kind of bowl.
That’s why, for Haley, all that analysis on TV felt like too big of a leap.
Going from that context to demanding a 9–3 record and a major bowl.
It wasn’t impossible.
But it wasn’t as simple as they made it sound.
It sounded ambitious.
And everything seemed to rest on Andrew’s shoulders. He was the one who had to lead, the reference point on which all those expectations were built.
Haley knew that, in pure talent, Andrew was above someone like Matt Barkley. But she also understood that Barkley had three full years playing college football, in a program like USC, established, competitive, with structure and experience. It wasn’t all about talent.
Andrew, on the other hand, had chosen UCLA. A program coming off years of struggles.
That’s where her concern came from.
Next to her, Steve was thinking the exact opposite.
’These bastards don’t take us seriously,’ he thought, annoyed as he listened to the analysts.
If Haley saw the weight of expectations, Steve saw disrespect.
On ESPN, USC was being treated as the clear winner of the Pac-12 South. Almost a given.
And that meant something very concrete: since UCLA was in the same division, their ceiling already seemed defined before the season even started. USC would win the South, go to the conference championship against the best of the North, Stanford or Oregon, and the rest would just watch.
It was, essentially, assuming UCLA could only compete, and lose.
To bow their heads.
Steve clenched his jaw.
He wasn’t stupid. He understood the analysis. USC was the number one team in the country, loaded with talent and experience on offense. Of course they commanded respect.
But from there to assuming they’d get run over again...
No.
Not that.
He wasn’t going to allow another 50–0 like last year. This was a new generation, and not with Andrew leading.
Steve glanced at him.
His best friend.
A quarterback he trusted to an almost irrational degree.
If someone told him UCLA wouldn’t score a single point against USC, Steve would bet his own hand they were wrong.
Andrew kept listening to the analysis. ’Poor fools...’ he thought, without changing his expression.
He knew something they didn’t.
USC wasn’t going to be the dominant team everyone imagined.
They had started as number one in the preseason and would end up being one of the biggest disappointments of the year, if not the biggest.
Barkley included. Staying one more year wouldn’t help him; his draft stock would drop significantly.
Andrew didn’t think it with mockery.
More with a certain sense of pity.
If Barkley had declared that year, he would’ve been a first-round pick without question, probably in the top 10. Now, if things followed the same path, he’d fall several rounds. Less money, less backing.
’Well... maybe that’ll motivate them more against us,’ Andrew thought, raising an eyebrow slightly.
USC now had something different in the picture: their crosstown rival was starting to rise.
UCLA was showing up again. With hype. With a recruiting class that had even surpassed them that year.
That alone would change the dynamic.
Maybe not enough to completely alter the course of the season, the roster was still largely the same, but enough to provoke a reaction.
A small butterfly effect.
On the program, the analysts finished going through all 25 teams and moved on to discussing the ones generating the most hype.
And, unsurprisingly, they lingered on UCLA.
For too long.
Comments, replays, and more analysis of the same thing. Expectations, doubts, and then expectations all over again.
Without saying anything, Haley grabbed the remote and turned off the TV.
"That’s enough. I think we’ve seen enough for today."
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