Chapter 86: Hector’s Calculation
Hector came to the briefing room at the third hour.
He had the assessment in his head, not on clay. Lysander had learned this about Hector over two years — he did not commit military calculations to tablets. He ran them, checked them, ran them again, and then spoke them from memory. The tablets were for administration. The calculations were his.
Priam was already seated. Lysander along the wall.
Hector stood.
He said: "Troy’s current defensive capacity is sufficient to repel an initial assault on the walls. That is the best part of this assessment. Everything else is more complicated."
He paused. Priam did not move.
"The combined force — Troy, Lycia, Caria, using the military commitments we have discussed — can hold the walls against a Mycenaean coalition assault for an extended period. The walls are sound. The harbor barrier limits approach from the sea. The coastal watch network gives us early warning. These advantages are real."
"But," Priam said.
"A sustained siege is a different problem. Agamemnon does not need to breach the walls. He needs to wait. If he controls the sea approaches — which his naval capacity currently allows — he interrupts our supply lines. The fleet we are building would change that equation. The fleet we currently have does not."
"The supply situation," Priam said.
"Six months. At current population, current consumption, and partial harbor access. If the harbor becomes fully unreliable — four months."
Priam was still.
"Four months," he said.
"Yes."
"In the previous assessment it was eight."
"The buffer zone population. The displacement arrivals. We have absorbed approximately four thousand people in the past six months. They consume. They also contribute — the fishing capacity increase, the Carian timber contacts, Maea’s network. But on the supply side, the net effect is negative."
"By how much."
"Eight months became six in the assessment before the second wave. Six became four when I recalculated this week with the current buffer population."
Priam looked at the table.
Lysander looked at Hector.
’He is giving Priam the numbers without softening them,’ Lysander thought. ’Priam asked for an honest assessment. Hector is constitutionally incapable of giving any other kind.’
’Four months.’
’Six weeks ago I thought it was six. It was six. Then the buffer zone filled and Maea’s community arrived and the numbers moved.’
’The numbers keep moving and they keep moving in the wrong direction.’
Hector continued.
"The options for extending the supply window. First: reduce the buffer zone population. Not possible without reversing everything we have built and creating a humanitarian crisis that destabilizes the region."
"No," Priam said.
"Agreed. Second: accelerate the fleet construction to the point where we can contest the sea approaches. Current timeline — eighteen months minimum with the Carian timber testing complete and the smaller vessel program running. If we push the pace and accept higher failure rates in construction—"
"We end up with vessels that fail in the conditions we need them most," Lysander said.
"Yes."
"Twelve months is the minimum for a fleet that functions under pressure."
"And we have six months before Agamemnon moves."
"Ampelos’s estimate is six to eight. I believe six is more accurate."
Priam said: "So the fleet will not be ready."
"Not at the required scale. No."
"What else."
"Third option: break a siege before it becomes permanent. An offensive sortie — using what fleet we have and the Lycian naval capacity — to disrupt the Mycenaean sea control before the siege settles. High risk. Requires precise timing. Requires Lycia to commit military assets, not just the commercial and intelligence commitments we currently have."
"Has Sarpedon’s king been asked."
"No. The current commitments do not extend to military alliance. That is a different conversation."
"When does that conversation need to happen."
"Before Agamemnon moves. Which means before six months."
Priam looked at the table for a long moment.
He said: "Fourth option."
"There is a fourth option," Hector said. "I did not want to present it until the first three were clear."
"Tell me."
"Negotiation. Not Agamemnon’s terms — different terms. Finding the specific thing Agamemnon actually wants that is not the thing he has been asking for, and offering that specific thing before the military pressure begins."
"What does he actually want."
"The strait. Not Troy — the strait. Troy is the mechanism. The strait is the objective. Control of the passage between east and west. The Dardanelles revenue. The trade leverage."
"And if we offer him a formal arrangement on the strait access. Not submission — a structured arrangement. Revenue sharing. Navigation rights. His name associated with the passage without controlling the city."
"Would he accept it."
"I do not know. Two years ago — perhaps. Now, after the refusal and the second envoy — I am less certain."
"It is a different kind of arrangement than what he offered us."
"Yes. What he offered was dominance framed as partnership. What I am describing is genuine partnership framed as recognition. The distinction matters to us. Whether it matters to him—"
"That is the question," Priam said.
"Yes."
The room was quiet.
Hector had finished.
He stood at the end of his own assessment with the expression he had after battle — not relieved, not troubled. Present. The expression of someone who had done what needed doing and was now available for what came next.
Priam said: "Give me two days."
He stood and went out.
________________________________________
Hector and Lysander walked out together.
In the corridor Hector said: "Miros."
"Yes."
"I have been running a separate assessment. Smaller. About the formation."
"Tell me."
"The floating role. The way the formation responds to irregular pressure. Miros has been developing it for two years." He paused. "It has developed further than I initially understood. He has built something that functions differently when you have seen it work than when you have read the description of it."
"Show me."
"Tomorrow. Training compound. Early."
He turned and went toward the garrison.
________________________________________
Arsini was at the supply office when Lysander returned.
She was not at his table — at the side table, reviewing the knowledge catalogue records that Deia had submitted the previous day. She looked up when he came in.
"The assessment," she said.
"Yes."
"Four months."
He looked at her.
"I passed Hector in the corridor afterward," she said. "He told me."
’Hector told her,’ Lysander thought. ’Directly. Which means he has decided she needs to know. Which means he has been watching what she contributes long enough to assess that she is part of the operational picture.’
"Yes," Lysander said. "Four months."
She looked at the knowledge catalogue.
"Deia’s records," she said. "The water women. The disagreement she recorded." She held up the tablet. "One of the women — her name is Sena — has been managing a specific kind of groundwater source for thirty years. The method she uses is not written anywhere. It exists in her hands and her memory." She set the tablet down. "If we lose Sena before the method is fully recorded, we lose thirty years of accumulated practice."
"How much has Deia recorded."
"Two sessions. Approximately a third."
"Prioritize Sena."
"Already done." She picked up her own tablet. "The session re-enrollments. Seven families returned this week. The observation program — twelve families have watched sessions. Ten of them re-enrolled or enrolled for the first time."
"Ten of twelve."
"Yes."
"What happened to the other two."
"One family moved to the outer eastern district. Too far for the daily walk. I am looking at whether we can open a seventh school location." She looked at him. "The second family — I spoke to the mother. She said: I trust the school. I do not trust what is outside the school."
"She means the situation."
"Yes. She is afraid of what happens to her daughter’s education if—" She stopped.
"If the situation changes," Lysander said.
"Yes."
He sat down.
"She is not wrong to be afraid of that," he said.
"No. She is not."
"What did you tell her."
"I told her the school has survived two years of significant change and the method Deia used to teach her daughter is something her daughter now carries in herself. What Deia teaches does not stay at the school. It goes with the child." She looked at her tablet. "I do not know if that was the right thing to say."
"It was true," he said.
"Yes. But true and right are sometimes different things."
He looked at her.
"Yes," he said. "They are."
She gathered her tablets.
At the door she stopped. Her stop — the light one.
"Four months," she said. "And you came back and worked through the supply reports."
"Yes."
"Without stopping."
"Yes."
She looked at him.
"I counted the lamp refills," she said.
He looked at her.
"From the school window," he said.
"Yes."
"For the water allocation."
"For the water allocation," she said.
She went out.
He sat in the supply office.
’She counted the lamp refills,’ he thought. ’Three refills in an evening means approximately six hours. She knows how long I work when the numbers are bad because she has been watching the lamp from the school window.’
’For the water allocation.’
’Obviously.’
He pulled the coastal watch report toward him.
Four months.
He read the third column — the rate of arrival at the northern stations. Still decreasing. Three weeks of lower numbers now.
’Three weeks,’ he thought. ’Hector said three weeks is a pattern. Cassandra said this season.’
’The wave might be slowing. Or gathering further east.’
’Watch while you wait.’
He picked up his shard.
