Chapter 45: The Potential of the Three Cities
A month has passed, Ernest was at Helmarte Upper District. He was on his way to Oriel along with his parents, Victor and Anna. While on their way there, he was reading in his notebook about what they discovered on the three plants where he’ll build the soap manufacturing plant.
He never really went to the location due to various reasons. First being he is the Chief Operator of the plant and couldn’t go due to him handling day-to-day operations. Though there are others who are not getting the hang of his job, they still couldn’t act independently when a problem arises in the plant.
So who did the research on those three locations? Well, he hired a team of scholars from the University of Belfast in Helmarte to gather information about those cities.
"Ernest, you have been staring at that notebook since we got out of home," Victor pointed.
Ernest looked up to see Victor looking at him with a stern look. He didn’t know whether he was chiding him or whatever, he has this sharp gaze that is bearing pressure on him.
"Sorry father, this is about work. You heard that we are expanding in three cities right now. This book is related to the survey reports."
Victor sighed.
"You’re always working."
"Well, someone has to make sure thirty million riels doesn’t disappear."
That earned a short laugh from Anna.
The carriage continued moving through the cleaner stone roads of the upper district while Ernest closed the notebook temporarily.
Actually, the past month had been extremely busy.
The investment agreement was signed.
The funds were transferred.
And immediately afterward, Helmarte Soap Works shifted from being a successful company into something much larger.
An expansion company.
A company preparing to become national.
The scholars he hired from the University of Belfast had spent weeks traveling between cities, gathering information, interviewing merchants, surveying rivers, and compiling reports.
Expensive reports.
Useful reports.
And now those reports sat inside the notebook resting on Ernest’s lap.
Anna looked curious.
"What exactly did they discover?"
Ernest reopened the notebook.
"Well, Northport remains the strongest candidate."
Victor nodded.
"That was the port city?"
"Correct."
The scholars had returned with far more information than population numbers alone.
the more detailed reports from the university scholars revealed something interesting.
The population numbers shown on the kingdom maps were wrong.
Not completely wrong.
Just outdated.
Very outdated.
Most official records came from tax surveys conducted years earlier.
The problem?
Cities grew faster than governments updated records.
And thanks to the Merchant Guild’s funding, Ernest had access to something much better.
Actual field surveys.
Merchant records.
Food consumption estimates.
Property counts.
Slaughterhouse volumes.
Port traffic.
Labor registrations.
All of which painted a much larger picture.
Northport was the first example.
Official population on the map:
300,000.
Estimated actual population:
Between 360,000 and 390,000.
The scholars settled on roughly 375,000.
That immediately changed the calculations.
Assuming five people per household:
375,000 ÷ 5
= 75,000 households.
If only twenty percent purchased soap regularly:
75,000 × 20%
= 15,000 households.
If each household consumed four bars monthly:
15,000 × 4
= 60,000 bars monthly.
And that was using conservative assumptions.
Actually, the Helmarte experience suggested household consumption increased significantly after customers became accustomed to soap.
Some families purchased six to eight bars monthly.
Especially wealthier households.
Then came the industrial consumers.
Bathhouses.
Inns.
Merchant ships.
Military garrisons.
Hospitals.
Those customers consumed soap far faster than ordinary families.
The scholars estimated Northport alone could absorb approximately 90,000 to 120,000 bars monthly within three years.
Not including exports.
Victor whistled softly.
"That’s almost our current production."
"Exactly."
Then Ernest flipped to the next city.
Ravenford.
Official population:
250,000.
Actual estimate:
340,000.
Apparently textile manufacturing attracted migrants from surrounding regions for years.
The government records simply never caught up.
Households:
340,000 ÷ 5
= 68,000 households.
Potential initial market:
68,000 × 20%
= 13,600 households.
At four bars monthly:
54,400 bars monthly.
Again, conservative.
Then Ernest pointed toward one particular note.
"What interests me isn’t the population."
"What is it?"
"The workers."
Actually, Ravenford might possess the most valuable labor force in the kingdom outside Helmarte.
Textile mills.
Metal workshops.
Coal merchants.
Water-powered factories.
Workers already understood schedules.
Production quotas.
Machinery.
Specialized labor.
Things ordinary rural workers struggled with.
The scholars estimated nearly 8,000 workers could be recruited without major disruption to local industries.
Average wage:
9,500 to 10,500 riels monthly.
Slightly below Helmarte.
Meaning operating costs would actually be lower.
Then Ernest flipped another page.
"Lastly, Eastgate."
Victor immediately nodded.
"The coal city."
"Exactly."
Actually, Eastgate ended up surprising Ernest the most.
Not because of its population.
Not because of its market.
But because of what sat beneath the ground.
Coal.
An absurd amount of coal.
The scholars spent nearly three weeks gathering information from mine owners, local merchants, river captains, and guild records.
And the conclusion was simple.
Eastgate possessed enough coal reserves to power industries for generations.
Official population:
220,000.
Estimated actual population:
Around 310,000.
Apparently the city had experienced rapid growth over the past decade due to expanding mining operations.
Thousands of workers migrated there seeking employment.
Government records simply failed to keep pace.
Using the same household calculation:
310,000 ÷ 5
= 62,000 households.
Twenty percent market penetration:
62,000 × 20%
= 12,400 households.
At four bars monthly:
49,600 bars monthly.
Comparable to Ravenford.
But what caught Ernest’s attention sat several pages later.
Coal production.
The scholars estimated Eastgate’s mines produced nearly seventy percent of the kingdom’s commercial coal supply.
Some mine operators reportedly extracted over two hundred tons daily.
Others even more.
The city also possessed extensive iron deposits, which can be used for industrialization. Everything required for heavy industry.
But don’t be mistaken, there’s no industrialization yet or steam engines. But why is the demand for coal so high?
Well, Eastgate happened to sit at the center of several industries that consumed enormous amounts of fuel every single day.
Smelters.
Foundries.
Shipyards.
Iron workshops.
Glassmakers.
Brick kilns.
Even household heating during winter.
Unlike Helmarte, where coal remained a secondary fuel source, Eastgate practically lived and breathed coal.
The scholars estimated that nearly fifty thousand tons of coal passed through the city annually.
A ridiculous amount by the standards of the Kingdom of Belfast.
And every year, that number continued growing.
And before they even realize it, they finally arrive in Oriel.
