I organized my thoughts.
If the news of the 50,000 strong advance force itself is a "bait," then it's not hard to speculate why it had to be exactly 50,000.
Even though it's not a castle, but a fortress, in battle, the side defending is typically much stronger than the attacking side. It's not that we can't stop them, but we can't overwhelm them either, and in the end, it will just turn into a drawn-out war of attrition, right? That was probably why Jinor suggested, "If it turns into a prolonged war, we are the ones who will lose."
For Brans' army to decisively secure victory, they would need to bring at least 70,000 to 80,000 soldiers. I imagine they could muster 20,000 to 30,000 from their side, as Brans’ army is large, and the population and borders are wide, so they likely have the manpower to spare.
At that point, Epinnel would probably give up the resistance and retreat to the fortress. With the combined forces inside, it would be much more rational to just hold up there.
That’s when I realized something like a "solution."
"If Epinnel wouldn't retreat unless they had 50,000 men... Was it to match that number?"
If the goal was to make it seem "possible" to fight, using 50,000 as the bait, the number 53,000 was brilliantly chosen. In fact, it was almost proven when Epinnel yielded.
"Wait."
If that advance force is bait for us, their real target isn't this fortress, which means...
So, what exactly is their goal?
Once again, two predictions surfaced, both seemingly correct.
The retreat of the soldiers was "a somewhat close countermeasure." Winning the battle depends on the will of the heavens—meaning it depends on how our army acts.
If our army "chooses" something, we win. And removing the soldiers from the fortress and retreating to Valharat Castle is a "countermeasure somewhat close to the correct answer."
"Does this mean... our army has to do something to win, including pulling back soldiers?"
But if that's the case, isn't the sentence a little strange? What do we have to do to win? What will make us lose if we don't do it?
"A situation where we lose if we don't do something... a situation where we win only by doing something..."
Again, I began to gather all possible actions Brans' army might take in my mind. The more I eliminated the impossible ones, the clearer the truth would become.
What would Brans' army have done? How did they act to make these two predictions lead to this result?
Again...
***
"...Hah."
Chel, upon hearing Parfalle's explanation, was left speechless, unable to say anything.
"What do you think?"
"How should I put it... It's so bold... Is it really possible?"
"It is possible. No, in fact, this is the only option. To strike a quick blow to the Aishus army without waiting for the 30,000 soldiers."
Parfalle spoke in a very serious tone.
"Of course, this method can only be used right now, at this very moment. I understand the risks if it fails. But I believe now is the time to make a decision."
"Hmm..."
Chel stroked his chin, lost in thought.
Parfalle’s suggestion. Indeed, it was likely the most unconventional yet efficient way to handle the current situation. The problem was clear. The massive loss our army would face if it failed.
Thanks to Airen's betrayal, over 30,000 soldiers instantly switched from Brans’ army to Aishus' army. If we lost the current forces as well, it could result in something irreversible. Wouldn’t it be a question of whether the southern or northern borders get breached?
"...This seems too reckless... No matter how I think about it, taking the fortress slowly and steadily through conventional means seems safer. Although I’m concerned about Swen’s ability, as you mentioned, if he could use it freely, he would have invaded Raklein Fortress by now, right? I heard Swen himself said that he couldn't use his ability at will when he was with our army."
"Then, let’s assume, as the general suggests, that Swen is unable to use his ability."
Parfalle placed his hand on the map again and began explaining.
"If it turns into a long battle, we will win, but we don’t know how long it will take. Aishus’ army has many talented generals. Of course, if we drag it out, we will eventually win, but in the meantime, there’s no telling what the southern nations and Serpina's army to the north will do. If our lord’s will is to punish Aishus first, as it’s clear—then finishing this as quickly as possible seems like the best option. The only way to avoid wasting time is the method I just mentioned."
"But... what if your plan doesn’t work?"
"Of course, that’s a possibility, but I consider the odds of failure to be extremely low."
"Could you explain why?"
Parfalle nodded and said, "The current commander of the fortress, Epinnel Rosenkross, is a battle-hardened general with a very rigid personality. She prefers direct confrontation over relying on schemes. She will likely argue to hold the fortress, and since she has significant standing within Aishus, her opinion will probably carry weight. I gathered this information through cross-checking sources from the eastern border, and I am confident it’s accurate."
"So, in the end..."
"Yes. If we fail, the loss to us will be significant, but even if we engage in direct confrontation, without knowing what exactly Swen’s ability is, the odds are slim that we would succeed. If both scenarios have risks, shouldn’t we pursue the one with the greater reward?"
"..."
"Chel, I will stop here. Even if you don’t follow my advice, I will serve you to the best of my ability."
Though Parfalle held a high position as the national strategist, in the end, it was Chel, the general, who commanded the army.
Chel thought for a while and then, seemingly having made up his mind, nodded and said, "...We will—"
***
I cleared my mind completely.
Then, I inserted only the two facts that had emerged from my recent predictions.
First, that the outcome of the battle depended entirely on our army's choice.
Second, that withdrawing the troops was, to some extent, the correct course of action.
These two propositions were absolute truths. A brain with 100 Intelligence only says things that are undeniably true.
In other words, both withdrawing the troops and taking some action on our part were necessary to secure victory in this battle.
I stared at the map for a long time.
The forests scattered around the area. Raklein Fortress. The stronghold. And the narrow path leading to Valharat Castle.
As I slowly examined the map, I began eliminating each possible outcome.
Every strategy that Brans' army could use against us.
Every countermeasure our army could take against Brans' army.
As I eliminated all of them one by one, a single possibility began to stand out sharply in the darkness.
'...!'
It was then.
My mind, tangled with complex thoughts, suddenly cleared, and I felt like I understood why my brain, with 100 Intelligence, had made such a prediction.
It felt like something akin to a divine revelation—something overwhelming that enveloped me.
"...A surprise attack."
I unknowingly muttered that word.
Yes.
A surprise attack.
The enemy’s goal isn't this fortress.
The advance force sent to the fortress is just bait.
The enemy’s real goal is the capital of Aishus' army, the only stronghold, Valharat Castle—where the military has already moved forces out to fight against the Aleffel army.
'The enemy is planning a surprise attack on Valharat Castle.'
It’s likely that the number of soldiers sent out wasn’t actually 50,000. It’s not hard to spread false information like that.
Even if it is 50,000, ultimately, the forces that arrive at the fortress will be the enemy’s. The remaining soldiers could make their way through the forest and then bypass to Valharat Castle.
Once I considered this, the fragmented facts that seemed completely unrelated before started to align perfectly.
So.
So, that’s why my brain, with 100 Intelligence, said it "depends on the will of the heavens."
Because if we prepare for the surprise attack, we’ll win. But if we fail to prepare, we’ll lose.
That’s why my brain also said it was "somewhat close."
If we withdraw the troops from the fortress and position them at Valharat Castle, we can at least prevent the surprise attack.
But Brans' army isn't foolish. If they notice the reinforcements, they won't initiate a battle and will pull their forces back immediately.
Jinor's suggestion was a half-truth. It would preserve our troops safely, but it wouldn't harm Brans' forces—essentially, it was a kind of status quo.
The term "somewhat close" is probably the best fit for this situation.
The real answer.
The answer my brain with 100 Intelligence predicts is: preparing for a surprise attack and counterattacking.
If the surprise attack fails, the enemy will fall into immediate confusion. It will be as easy as pie to mop up the disorganized soldiers.
A method that preserves our troops while dealing a decisive blow to Brans' army.
That is the true answer—preparing for a surprise attack on Valharat Castle.
"...Hah."
I let out a long sigh as I leaned back in the chair.
I didn't even realize it, but sweat was dripping from my body.
It felt like walking on thin ice. I couldn’t quite understand it, but extracting what’s going on from a set of facts that are undeniably true required an enormous amount of energy.
Even so.
In the end, I had successfully found what seemed to be the right path.
"This is just half of it."
Yes.
From the moment I figured it out, I knew it was only half of the solution.
This wasn’t Luna’s army, which would almost certainly listen to me.
Even if what I said was completely correct, it wouldn’t matter if they didn’t follow through.
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Moreover, this wasn’t Aishus' army, a cold and ruthless faction where even someone like Jinor was considered too inexperienced and discarded.
"But I still have to convince them."
I, as a rookie officer, wouldn’t be able to sway Epinnel’s mind.
So, the person I first need to approach... in the end, it’s Jinor.
Jinor is the national strategist. Even though Epinnel may have disregarded Jinor's advice once, as the national strategist, his chances of convincing Epinnel were much higher than mine.
"We don't have time. Let's move quickly."
I stood up from my chair and walked toward where Jinor was.