Chapter 1136: Chapter 145: East Africa’s Concerns
For the French government’s small schemes, Ernst is naturally happy to see them succeed. Only by intensifying the competition between Germany and France can East Africa benefit by playing both sides.
As for the French’s little tactics, Ernst believes they have a negligible impact on Germany. After all, East Africa is currently in a rapid phase of capacity expansion, with massive development funds obtained through large loans, driving various industries into high-growth stages.
What France calls a major deal is, in East Africa’s eyes, nothing more than a light drizzle. Unlike Russia, East Africa doesn’t inherently lack funds.
Moreover, Germany’s dependence on East Africa far exceeds the expectations of other countries. It’s not something that can be affected by just a few orders. Take cotton, rubber, oil, rare minerals, and so on as examples; the range of trade between East Africa and Germany is extensive.
Just cotton alone amounts to over hundreds of thousands of tons imported by Germany from East Africa annually, and France clearly cannot disrupt the cotton trade between Germany and East Africa by simply spending money. That would be an astronomical number.
In the current period of East Africa’s rapid capacity expansion, other countries simply cannot affect East Africa’s exports to other nations through trade mechanisms, because it’s impossible to purchase everything. However, France also has no other choice.
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In response to France’s efforts to woo East Africa, Germany, naturally, is not willing to be outdone. After 1913, Germany has spared no effort to win over East Africa.
Germany has always hoped to bind East Africa to Germany’s chariot, but the East African government’s willingness in this regard has not been strong. This has always been a rather troubling problem for Germany. In the eyes of the German government, if East Africa could join forces with Germany, there would be practically no country in the world capable of confronting this commanding "German Alliance."
Shortly after seeing off Tom Thomson, Kamon, Germany’s ambassador to East Africa, communicated with the East African government almost as a matter of routine.
Kamon began by painting a rosy picture for East Africa: "If East Africa allies with Germany, it would gain British colonies like India and Australia, becoming the overlord of the Indian Ocean and Africa, emerging as the world’s premier superpower. A world order led by Germans would also be established globally."
It must be said that the conditions offered by the Germans are indeed very tempting. Achieving any one of these would raise East Africa’s national power to a new level, but whether this grand promise can be fulfilled is clearly something the East African government has its own thoughts about.
East Africa’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Frier, said: "Although East Africa has always supported Germany, we cannot bear the risks of war, so we can only provide Germany with all support except for war."
For the East African government, the United Kingdom is certainly no paper tiger. As soon as the East African Royal Army arrives, those British colonies can easily be taken over.
East Africa mainly considers two aspects: one is the United States and the other is Russia. Given the presence of the United States, East Africa is not optimistic about Germany’s situation, while with Russia, East Africa is worried that cooperation between East Africa and Germany could lead to some cooperation between the United Kingdom and Russia in the Indian Ocean.
In the Indian Ocean region, one must absolutely not ignore Russia, a country that has always had a strong ambition for the Indian Ocean. The main reason Russia has long been unable to gain an outlet to the Indian Ocean is British suppression of Russia.
If East Africa turns hostile with the United Kingdom in the Indian Ocean region, the United Kingdom might reach a cooperation agreement with Russia, jointly opposing East Africa along the northern shore of the Indian Ocean.
Moreover, the United Kingdom controls the key nodes of the Red Sea, Malacca, and the Cape of Good Hope, effectively controlling East Africa’s main trade routes. If the United Kingdom dares to forgo some interests in the Indian Ocean, it can completely prevent East Africa’s external expansion.
Take the Malacca Strait, for example: even if East Africa wanted to conquer the strait, it would have to be prepared for a prolonged war because Malacca is too far from East Africa. Additionally, the United Kingdom could use the terrain and fortifications to stall East Africa, and beyond that, it could enlist support from Japan and the United States to ensure the security of this transport hub.
If Japan or the United States were really to take control of the Malacca Strait, it would be a heavy blow to East Africa. Not only would it lose overseas territories like Alaska and Lan Fang, but East Africa could also lose the opportunity to expand eastward into the Pacific Ocean.
The complex international relations make East Africa cautious, and the long-standing overlord status of the United Kingdom gives it considerable initiative. At least in most strategic locations, the United Kingdom can resist. This isn’t something East Africa can easily resolve through a few wars, and as long as East Africa can be delayed, the United Kingdom can leverage other nations’ powers to thwart East Africa’s plans.
Ultimately, the world system the United Kingdom has established over the past several hundred years is difficult to overthrow. If war were to break out, the vast majority of countries would stand on the United Kingdom’s side. This is also the brilliance of British colonialism. In almost every region colonized by the United Kingdom, it has cultivated a large number of compradors and loyal lapdogs.
So, at present, without ensuring a decisive blow to the world system established by the United Kingdom, East Africa certainly cannot act as the trailblazer.
Even if East Africa could now break this system, the ultimate beneficiaries could instead be countries like the United States, Russia, and Japan, among others.
In such circumstances, it’s better to let the United Kingdom continue to hobble along until East Africa is ready to deliver a heavy punch to the British hegemonic system.
After all, the United Kingdom is already a setting sun, visibly declining. East Africa should now use the United Kingdom to maintain its system in the Indian Ocean region, gradually infiltrate, and after all preparations are complete, smoothly take over the British legacy.
If the order established by the United Kingdom in the Indian Ocean were to suddenly collapse now, it would not be good for East Africa. Apart from potentially drawing the United States, Japan, Russia, and other competitors, the colonial order established by the United Kingdom, if it collapses, may also suddenly lead to the independence of a large number of countries, which would not be easy for East Africa to control.
After all, if the United Kingdom collapses, East Africa becomes one of their greatest threats. Under such circumstances, they might as well continue to cooperate with the United Kingdom, the United States, or Japan, at least these countries are far away, and instead can offer them a sense of security.
In summary, East Africa does not wish for the British colonial system in the Indian Ocean to suddenly collapse at this time, much like some European countries in the past life didn’t want the sudden dissolution of the Soviet Union.
When the Soviet Union existed, they could benefit from both sides, living comfortably. After the Soviet Union disappeared, however, the United States became overwhelmingly dominant.
Take France, for instance. With the Soviet Union’s presence, France could emerge as a notable great power, even leading the establishment of the European Union. Once the Soviet Union dissolved, France’s influence visibly waned, becoming a target of American reprimands at times. This is one of the reasons France later hoped the Far East Empire would assume a global responsibility to confront the United States.
And because East Africa was established late, its influence on the international stage has always been quite limited. In recent years, although East Africa has actively expanded its influence in other countries and regions, the process will take a long time.
Take the Persian Gulf coast, for example; East Africa has only just acquired territory in the Beibu Gulf, and other local forces continue to look up to the United Kingdom. In India, Southeast Asia, and other Indian Ocean coastal areas, East Africa’s influence is even weaker.
So for East Africa to acquire supremacy in the Indian Ocean, there are many factors to consider. It cannot be as easily settled as Kamon suggests with just one war.
Of course, the fundamental reason is that East Africa is not optimistic about Germany’s chances of achieving victory in Europe unless Germany can simultaneously defeat the three great powers of the United Kingdom, France, and Russia while keeping the United States confined to the Atlantic coast. However, Germany alone is clearly not capable of such feats.
The likelihood of Germany failing in Europe is too high, and if Germany fails, East Africa might face encirclement from other nations. Although existential risk might not be on the table, transforming East Africa into a larger "Korea" is very likely, and modern East Africa definitely does not want to go through another period of seclusion.
In the end, it’s because East Africa is unwilling to bear the risks of war. As long as East Africa can remain neutral, it can benefit. Any sensible person knows which choice to make, and East Africa doesn’t possess the gambling spirit of countries like Germany and Japan.
