Chapter 1086: Chapter 95: Major Upheaval in Transportation
The national economy of East Africa is currently primarily borne by these seven major urban clusters. According to Ernst’s opinion, the upcoming industrial development in East Africa will continue to revolve around these seven urban clusters as the core.
Although East African industries are concentrated in these seven main regions, this also reflects the East Africa Central Government’s coordination in regional economic development.
Although it doesn’t match Germany, compared to other great powers, the distribution of East African industries is relatively balanced. This is closely related to the geography, resource distribution, and transportation layout of East African countries.
Germany’s industrial distribution is balanced, which cannot be separated from these factors. German industries are mostly distributed in river valleys and other terrains, unable to concentrate like those in the United States or France. Due to historical reasons, the overall economic pattern of the country had already been established as early as the Era of Many States.
Although the overall terrain of East Africa is relatively flat, it is also divided into several plateaus, coastal plains, and basins. This makes the East African economy and population present their current distribution effect. However, these regions are moderate in size. For instance, the East African Plateau is nearly one million square kilometers, which is neither too big nor too small compared to the national territory of East Africa. No geographical unit in East Africa’s main territory holds an absolute advantage.
If it were early East Africa, it would naturally be concentrated on the East African Plateau because, at that time, the core territory of East Africa was centered on the plateau. However, as the territory of East Africa rapidly expanded, the East African Plateau no longer held these conditions.
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After analyzing the overall national economic pattern, the Ministry of Transport and the Ministry of Railways began summarizing the work during the second five-year plan.
During the second five-year plan, the East African railway continued to develop at a high speed, reaching a length of 200,000 kilometers, consolidating its position as the second-largest railway network in the world. However, its status in national transportation has declined.
The Minister of Transport, Raschel, stated: "In the past few years, the railway network nationwide has become relatively complete. The total railway mileage reached 200,000 kilometers. Road development is even faster, with an increasing share in transportation modes, even forming competitiveness with the railways."
Before the development of the automobile, the advantage of railway transportation in land transport was almost unshakable. Now, with the booming development of East Africa’s automotive industry, East Africa is rapidly moving toward becoming an automobile powerhouse, thereby exerting strong competitive pressure on the railway.
"By the end of 1909, our national automobile holdings had reached 7.52 million vehicles. During the second five-year plan, the annual average car production was 1.2 million vehicles. Next year, our national automobile holdings will exceed 10 million vehicles. Since the end of the first five-year plan, East African annual car production has consistently exceeded one million."
"This has a huge impact on the transportation industry. Automobile transportation is more flexible than railway, especially in medium and short-distance transportation, where the automobile undoubtedly has an advantage."
The strong position of the East African automobile manufacturing industry is difficult to overthrow in a short time. For reference, after the First World War, the registered passenger cars in the United States were above 5 million, so the US automobile retention at that time should be above this number, but it could not exceed the current East African level.
The current production cost of automobiles in East Africa has been suppressed to below 2000 Rhine Shields. Cars have already transitioned from luxury goods to necessary and common transportation tools in East Africa. It should be noted that at that time, the population of East Africa was just over a hundred million, which means most East African families could afford cars.
"Today, cars are very common across the whole country, whether in cities or rural areas, for travel or transport, cars have become the most common tool and even the most remote city has cars."
"This is inseparable from the vigorous development of our national road transportation. By the end of 1909, the total length of hardened roads in our country reached more than 4 million kilometers, basically meeting the transportation needs of the country."
"It is no exaggeration to say that road transportation has replaced the railway as the number one mode of transportation in our country, while also becoming a strong driving force for our oil production and import."
Raschel continued: "At the same time, our nation’s inland waterway and maritime scale are also expanding rapidly. During the second five-year plan, the navigable river segments of our inland waterways increased by 25% compared to the first five-year plan. Although it doesn’t match the railway and road transport, there has been substantial development. In terms of maritime transportation, the construction of ports in coastal areas is becoming increasingly complete, greatly improving our maritime service capabilities."
Through two five-year plans, modern transportation in East Africa has made great progress, but behind this progress are the bones of millions of Black laborers. Large numbers of Black laborers participated in the construction of roads and canals, which is one of the reasons for the rapid decline of the Black population in East Africa.
Compared to Raschel’s high spirits, the railway department is relatively deflated. As Raschel said, although East Africa’s railways have achieved brilliant results over the past decade, this is not entirely the case domestically. The rapid development of road and water transport has posed a huge challenge to railway transportation.
Of course, the Ministry of Railways at this time could not yet foresee that in the future they would encounter another challenger not inferior to roads, which is aviation. Now in East Africa, aircraft manufacturing technology is advancing rapidly. In Ernst’s vision, even if the scale of East African aviation could not reach the astonishing proportion of the United States, it will not be too far off.
And precisely because of understanding the development of modes of transportation like roads and aviation, Ernst limited the blind and aggressive development of domestic railways unlike the United States and European countries before the first five-year plan.
And this is undoubtedly the right move. As of now, road transportation has already formed a strong competitiveness with the railway, and the scale of road transportation is still rapidly expanding.
Of course, although the competition brought by roads and other modes of transportation makes the Ministry of Railways a bit frustrated, it cannot be denied that the advantages of railways make it impossible to be entirely replaced.
The Minister of Railways, Joris, said: "From the first five-year plan to the second five-year plan, our railway system has expanded to more than double that of the entire 19th century, with 110,000 kilometers of new railways being built over the two five-year plans. Its dominant position in national transportation modes is still irreplaceable, playing a role in linking the major cities of the country and undertaking the major tasks of transporting timber, grain, minerals, and other bulk goods, also making great contributions to national defense."
"At the same time, during the second five-year plan, the Ministry of Railways actively promoted railway technological innovation, including the railway information system, locomotive innovation, and so on."
"Although road and other transportation modes are on the rise, the role of railways in long-distance transportation nationwide cannot be replaced, not even by the most cost-effective water transportation."
Ernst affirmed: "Railways play a huge role in the transportation industry. Although road and other modes of transportation have rapidly risen and to some extent replaced the railways, as long as they are reasonably arranged, railways will not decline because of this. I have long said, the national railway mileage is expected to be around 300,000 kilometers. Although it doesn’t match America, it will be sufficient."
American railways have already reached an astonishing 400,000 kilometers. Moreover, it cannot be ignored that mainland America is several million square kilometers smaller than East Africa, so the railway density in America has a significant advantage over East Africa.
But this advantage is only for now. About four years later, with the opening of the Panama Canal, American railways will face a major crisis, especially the freight railway connecting the two oceans; many might choose to detour through the Panama Canal.
Moreover, although America’s automotive industry has been severely impacted by East Africa, it is also thriving. When America’s road transportation develops to the current level of East Africa, it will give the American railway a second impact, of course, provided that the American railway does not timely adjust.
