Chapter 75: War Is Meant to Serve Politics
Kossuth, not being an economist, and the senior officials of the republican government lacking economic acumen themselves, have never truly pondered the significance of 200 million shields for Hungary!
Their ignorance does not imply that everyone present is equally clueless. Representative Howell from the banking consortium directly confronted them, asking:
“Mr. Kossuth, do you know what 200 million shields signify?”
This question caught Kossuth off guard. While he had anticipated that the aristocrats and big capitalists would haggle, he did not expect them to ask this question.
In terms of currency value, 1 shield is approximately equivalent to 11.69 grams of silver. So 200 million shields would be equivalent to 46.76 million taels of silver. In this era, silver has not depreciated in value, so when converted to pounds, it would still be over 20 million pounds. (The gold-silver ratio is around 1:10.)
In 1847, Austria's fiscal revenue was only 155 million shields (excluding Hungary), and the fiscal revenue of the British was just over 50 million pounds.
Prior to the revolution, it was considered quite good for Hungary to have a fiscal revenue of 100 million shields. However, after the establishment of the republic, they quickly depleted this entire fortune of 100 million shields.
These funds were mainly obtained through the sale of a large number of state-owned assets, along with government-imposed taxes. This included the assets of the emperor and the public property owned by the nation.
This question hasn't been raised before because everyone here is a beneficiary, having acquired industries at low prices. No one would refuse money that comes knocking on their door.
Not being aware is not a problem either. Thick skin is a key attribute of politicians. If one still cares about their reputation, then they shouldn't be a politician, especially in a republican country.
"Of course, 200 million shields is indeed a significant figure, but for everyone present here, it's not beyond their means!" Kossuth calmly replied.
Indeed, for everyone present, not to mention 200 million shields, even if it were increased three or fivefold, they would still be able to afford it.
Being able to afford and being willing to contribute are two different concepts. No one is willing to dig into their own pockets and give away their money, no matter how high the interest rate may be. The fear of borrowing without repayment is hard to overcome.
Considering the speed at which the new government is spending money, no amount of funds can fill this bottomless pit. This is also why many revolutionary governments around the world have failed.
Idealistic governments often have grand ambitions, but they end up achieving very little, while draining the resources of the nation in the process.
"Mr. Kossuth, when you were in school, you probably didn't do well in economics. Please take the trouble to find out how much currency is circulating in the Hungarian market and then answer this question!" Howell mocked.
Having wealth does not necessarily mean having an equal amount of currency. In reality, there are limitations on the currency circulating in the market. If there is too much circulating currency, it will depreciate, and if there is too little, a financial crisis may occur.
From an economic perspective, suddenly withdrawing 200 million shields from Hungary would trigger a monetary crisis, followed by a bank run, financial crises, and eventually, the Great Depression.
In this era, unlike later times where everyone used credit currency and could directly transfer money through banks, buying bonds required cash. It was not a matter of whether they wanted to spend the money or not, but rather that it was simply impossible for them to come up with the cash.
(Information: In 1848, Austria's national savings amounted to 48 million shields, while the United Kingdom had 28.2 million pounds (1 pound ≈ 9.6 shields).
There is no doubt that Kossuth has embarrassed himself this time, or one could say that his team is inexperienced and has made such a glaring mistake.
Of course, there are many others who have made similar mistakes. It is a common trait among those who talk big but often have a narrow perspective when considering issues.
… …
Before Kossuth could resolve the financial issues, the war had already begun.
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On May 8, 1848, the Austrian army from the province of Croatia launched the first attack on the Hungarian Republic.
On May 9, the Austrian armies from Bohemia and Transylvania also initiated attacks on the Hungarian Republic.
On May 10th, the anti-rebellion army led by Albrecht arrived at the frontlines, and the Austro-Hungarian War broke out in full force.
Adding fuel to the fire did not work, and Kossuth's prediction proved true this time. Four armies launched simultaneous attacks, and if logistical transport units were included, the total military force truly exceeded four hundred thousand.
However, only half of the troops were actually committed to the offensive, and even with that, the Hungarian Republic couldn't hold on.
Vienna.
The Hungarian battlefield was full of good news. Under absolute strength, it was not possible to reverse the unfavorable situation by shouting slogans.
In order to ensure victory, Franz also used the need of the overall situation as an excuse to transfer back the commander-in-chief of the Bohemian army, Prince Windisch-Gr?tz, to serve as the Minister of War, and replaced him with Julius as the commander-in-chief.
Prince Windisch-Gr?tz took up the command baton and confidently pointed and gestured on a map hanging on the wall, saying:
"Your Majesty, Governor Jela?i?'s Croatian Corps has already reached Lake Balaton and captured the fortress of Kalocsa.
General Albrecht's Austrian Corps is currently attacking Komárom.
General Julius's Bohemian Corps has just defeated the Hungarian People's Army and is now less than a hundred kilometers away from Budapest.
General Vécsey's Transylvanian Corps, due to transportation issues, is still in Debrecen at this time.
Overall, so far, this campaign against the rebellion has been progressing very smoothly. The Bohemian Corps has a force of one hundred thousand troops, and if everything goes well, we can launch the assault on Budapest as early as the day after tomorrow."
He had reasons to be proud as this war was conducted under his leadership. However, due to the limitations of communication during this era, the Army Headquarters could only establish a general strategy.
The specific tactics and execution are left to the commanders in the field, and they have some autonomy in following the military orders.
Regarding Prince Windisch-Gr?tz’s military abilities, Franz didn't rush to draw conclusions. Although he had experienced defeat in suppressing the Hungarian rebellion in history, the operational plans he is currently devising are still feasible.
"The plan to attack Budapest is temporarily postponed. It is sufficient for General Julius to contain the enemy and wait for the Austrian Army to join forces with them before launching the offensive!"
Don't underestimate the Hungarian insurgents. In history, it was the Austrian army that ultimately met with failure and had to seek assistance from the Russians to resolve the situation.
At least the strongest fighting force in the Hungarian Republic, the Student Army, has not yet appeared on the battlefield.
Franz is also unsure about the current public sentiment in the Hungarian Republic. If the government has the full support of the people, then Budapest will become a battleground.
"Your Majesty, the rebels are nothing more than a disorganized mob. Within a week, we can capture Budapest and suppress this rebellion!" said Prince Windisch-Gr?tz, passionately, as if accusing Franz of interfering in military affairs and delaying the opportunity.
Franz calmly explained, "Your Highness, the military serves the political agenda. War is merely a means to an end, not the end itself."
MWFSun will be the new schedule for the novel. I might be able to translate more in the future, stay tuned!
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