Chapter 362: Strategic Gamble
After returning to the European continent, Stephen and Garibaldi went their separate ways. One wanted to go and cause an uproar for independence, while the other wanted to find a place to observe the situation.
Stephen and his group did not immediately return to Hungary. Their experience in exile told them they had to be cautious, as any carelessness could be fatal.
Despite more than a decade passing and everyone undergoing significant changes, no one could guarantee that they wouldnt be recognized by their acquaintances.
Once the news leaked out, they would all be taken down together. In Montenegro, Stephen and his group got off the boat and disguised themselves as merchants to investigate the market in Montenegro.
Then they sent out several young members who had never passed through Austria to gather intelligence in Hungary.
Adversity is most conducive to growth. The current Hungarian Independence Organization is different from a decade ago. Not only had they learned to understand themselves and their enemies, but their ability to survive had also improved by many levels.
At a time when a wave of rebels was sweeping across the European continent, the Prussian-Danish War was also nearing its end. Fortunately, the Russian government took action in time.
This could not be actually considered timely. The Russian government should have taken action more than two months earlier. Unfortunately, the Russians wanted to suppress the Polish uprising first before dealing with the Prussians.
As a result, although the Polish rebels were defeated, the rebellion continued. There were too many supporters behind the Polish rebellion this time, and the strength of the rebels exceeded the expectations of the Russians.
Defeating them was easy, but eliminating them was difficult. The existence of the Polish rebellion bought time for the Prussians.
It was not until the Danes could no longer hold out that the Russian government had to intervene. Otherwise, if the Kingdom of Denmark fell, the prestige of the Russian Empire would be lost.
On December 28, 1864, the Russian government issued an ultimatum to the Kingdom of Prussia, ordering them to withdraw from Denmark within 24 hours.
In Berlin, although they were mentally prepared, the Prussian government still felt repressed when that day finally arrived.
This time, the enemy was the European hegemon the Russian Empire, which was completely incomparable to the Danes.
Things had reached this point, and now they could no longer retreat. Otherwise, they would not only offend the Russians but also the English and French who were secretly supporting them.
William I couldnt afford to be at odds with the military anymore. If they lost this war, even if the Russians didnt swallow Prussia whole, they would at least take a big bite out of them.
Are you ready? Do you have confidence in defeating the Russians?
The Minister of War and the Navy, Roon, replied, We have completed a national mobilization, and all reserves have been recalled to active duty. 427,000 Prussian troops can be deployed for battle at any time.
The most important thing now is to seek more loans from the English and French. As long as we solve the funding problem, we can fight a war of attrition with the Russians.
While it is true that the Kingdom of Prussia mobilized 427,000 troops, it does not mean that all these troops could be deployed in the war against Russia.
Having such powerful neighbors was a tragedy. Each of the three neighbors can crush them, so the Prussian government must proceed with caution.
It was no problem to send the main force against the Russians, but how to ensure they would not be taken advantage of by the French and Austrians was a big issue.
Even if everyone needed them to fight against the Russians, and the French and Austrians would not take action against them for the time being, what about after the war ended?
Whether they failed or succeeded, there was a possibility of facing attacks from the French and Austrians.
If they were defeated, needless to say, the Russians would want a share, and the French and Austrians would want some as well. Unless Prussia paid a heavy price, they could not escape.
Winning this war did not equate to victory either; the Russian government can still come back stronger. The days ahead were long!
The European continent was too small to accommodate so many strong nations. Neither France nor Austria wanted to see the emergence of a powerful Prussia.
After defeating the Russians, Prussias role would be over, and it would be perfectly normal for them to be stabbed in the back by then.
Precautions must be taken, and the Prussian government has to prepare in advance. In case of unexpected circumstances, they need to be able to react.
With so many realistic problems in front of them, the Prussian military naturally dared not take risks. They not only had to win but also had to minimize losses as much as possible to deal with possible opportunistic attacks from the French and Austrians after the war.
In this era, the international environment for the Kingdom of Prussia was much harsher than in history, and there were too few options for them.
In history, Bismarck was able to lead Prussia to unify Germany, but that was based on the premise of Russia losing the Crimean War and Austria losing the Franco-Austrian War.
The current situation was completely different. The Franco-Austrian War had not even happened. The Kingdom of Sardinia wanted to use the cession of territory to lure the French into attacking Austria, but the Austrian government directly sold out the entire Kingdom of Sardinia.
Although France, which had swallowed the Kingdom of Sardinia, seemed to have profited greatly on the surface, it had fallen into a strategically passive position and become isolated by European countries.
To some extent, this was also a good thing for the Kingdom of Prussia. With France in a diplomatic predicament, they would not dare to have designs on the Rhineland in the short term, greatly reducing the pressure on their national defense.
The formidable Russians, on the other hand, were different. Despite suffering greater losses in the Near East War than in the Crimean War in history, they emerged victorious!
The Russian people werent afraid of heavy losses, and the Russian governments occupation of Constantinople had been met with great satisfaction across society, overshadowing any losses incurred.
The Russian army, having been baptized by the flames of war, possesses a combat capability that cannot be compared to what it was in the original history. Not only did they have weaponry that surpassed those of the same period in history, but their morale and military spirit were also on a different level.
It was not surprising that the Prussian military chose a conservative approach. After all, the Russian government had no shortage of soldiers, and with the Austro-Russian alliance, even if Austria did not support the Russians, it would not prevent them from selling weaponry.
Under such circumstances, it would obviously be unwise to engage in a test of strength with the Russians. Russia could lose three or five times without issue, but if Prussia lost even once, they would be finished.
War is no childs play. Whether it was Roon or Moltke, they were the most outstanding military strategists of this era. Their perspective was naturally not just about winning a single battle but winning the war.
The biggest weakness of the Russian government was poverty. Prussia had financial backers, so the first to be unable to hold out in a war of attrition would definitely be the Russians.
Prime Minister Franck raised a question, How can we ensure we can stop the Russians? From a practical standpoint, we must keep the enemy outside our borders.
Youre all well aware of the quality of the Cossack cavalry. Once they penetrate into our territory and wreak havoc, the consequences would be unimaginable.
This was the most troubling problem. The Prussian-Russian border was too long, and the Polish Plain was flat and open. These areas were also the base of the Junker nobility, and could not be lost.
Not to mention the entry of large Russian forces, even if just thousands of cavalry broke through and caused destruction, the Prussian government would not be able to afford the losses.
Moltke said gravely, We need to abandon the border, moving all civilians within 50 kilometers of the Prussian-Russian border to the rear areas.
Then we will carry out a second mobilization, increasing the service period of soldiers to five years and adjusting the service age to 16-55. We can add another 300,000 troops, give them simple training, and use them to deal with a Russian invasion.
Everyones expressions changed drastically. It was easy to say abandon the border, but doing so would incur a heavy price.
The Kingdom of Prussia was not large, and retreating fifty kilometers might sound easy, but in practice, it meant relocating millions of people. One-fifth of the countrys territory would become a no mans land.
William I said sternly, This is impossible. Your plan to abandon the countryside has exceeded our capacity to bear. If we were to proceed with it, we would be the first to collapse, not the Russians.
Moltke sighed and said, If thats the case, we can only take the risk and launch an offensive, keeping the battlefield in Poland as much as possible.
In this era, trenches and barbed wire have not yet appeared, and there are no such cheap defense facilities. With the Prussian-Russian border being so long, fortifications can only be built in key areas.
The enemys large forces wouldnt dare to bypass these fortifications and launch attacks deep into enemy territory, but its a different story for smaller units.
Of course, there are also defensive fortifications in the rear. The nobles castles are the best fortresses, and dealing with small enemy forces without heavy firepower is not a big problem.
The main reason for abandoning the areas was to reduce casualties. After all, civilians could not stay in castles indefinitely, and everyone needed to live.
The cavalry comes and goes like the wind, and even with prior notice, it still takes time to prepare. Retreating fifty kilometers to the rear is to buy this time.
William I began to hesitate. The greatest risk of taking a gamble wasnt the military aspect. With the Polish Independence Organization now an ally of Prussia, even if the war were to be fought within Polish territory, they would still have the support of the people.
The trouble was that it would anger the Russians and turn a regional war into an all-out war between the two countries. It was not that the Prussians were timid. The biggest problem was that after completing military reforms, they had not experienced a major war and lacked confidence.
Prime Minister Franck said, Your Majesty, since we have come this far, why hesitate? Winning this war, the independent Kingdom of Poland will serve as a buffer between Prussia and Russia in the future; losing this war, the Kingdom of Prussia will lose its future.
As a member of the Junker nobility, the Prime Minister ultimately stood on the side of the Junkers at a critical moment. No matter what, class interests had to be protected.
Prussias path of retreat was blocked, but the Junkers path of retreat still existed. These battle-ready nobles were still highly sought after in this era and did not have to worry about finding a way out.
William I nodded heavily and said, Go ahead and do it boldly!
With things having reached this point, he decided to take a big gamble. Placing the battlefield in Russian-controlled Polish territory could not only reduce losses on home soil but also offer a chance to take a bite out of Russia after the war.
The British supported their expansion in the Baltic region. Since there was no opportunity for expansion in the German region, eastward expansion became the only choice.
European nations wouldnt mind seeing a Prussian Empire emerge that would stand toe-to-toe with Russia and take on the responsibility of containing the Russian Empire. That was why John Bull wouldnt stand by and watch Prussia fall.
Prime Minister Franck proposed, Your Majesty, we must seek more supporters, at least ensuring Austria remains neutral.
A Russian Empire supported by Austria is completely different from one without Austrian support. We cannot take on two empires at the same time.
Since it was going to be a war of attrition, they naturally had to consider the comparison of strength between the two sides. Although Austria may not have as much money as Britain and France, Austrias industrial strength was no weaker than Frances.
Support didnt necessarily have to be in the form of money; providing materials could be just as effective. As long as there was an ample supply of food, weapons, ammunition, and necessary military supplies, the Russians could sustain themselves indefinitely.
In this era, most conscripted European soldiers did not receive salaries, and the salaries of the noble officers could also be owed first they would not go on strike just because the king could not pay them.
William I thought for a moment and said, Hmm, send someone to negotiate with the Austrian government. Unless its a core issue, everything can be discussed.
In Vienna, Franz was still unaware that Austria had once again become the focus of contention among various parties. At this time, both Prussia and Russia were in need of Austrias support.
Geopolitics was always an unavoidable topic. The role that nearby Austria could play was unmatched by distant powers like Britain and France.
He was still worrying about the letter in his hand. Maximilian, who had encountered difficulties, finally realized the need for help, putting Franz in a difficult position.
With the Prussian-Russian war about to erupt, the Austrian government had to be on high alert. As the outcome of the American Civil War between the North and the South was about to be decided, Austrias forces in the Americas had to be mobilized for intervention in the aftermath.
Interfering further in Mexican affairs would simply be asking for trouble.
Directly refusing would seem somewhat unkind, considering that Maximilian simply believed that diplomatic support would suffice, unaware that behind every instance of diplomatic support lay a power struggle.
Diplomacy without the backing of power was hardly worth mentioning. After much hesitation, Franz decided to give Maximilian some encouragement to inspire him to strive on his own.
As a supportive elder brother, Franz still provided some practical advice.
He deeply analyzed the internal contradictions of the Mexican Empire and suggested that Maximilian first win over the constitutionalists to establish a stable government, leaving the issue of reform for later.
When it came to lacking funds, it was simpler: boldly ask the French for a loan. Use influence, trade routes, fiscal revenue, mineral resources... as long as the price was right, everything could be used as collateral.
Whether Maximilian listened or not was beyond Franzs control. At least he had given his advice. If Maximilian followed these suggestions, although it would not make the Mexican Empire strong, at least it could ensure the stability of Maximilians throne.
It would increase the difficulty of future reforms, but Franz ignored that. In the face of survival, any other factor could be abandoned.
The saying that the one who lends money is the uncle may not necessarily apply in this era, but at least it ensured that Napoleon III would not easily abandon his support for him.
The issue of repaying the debt would have to wait until the throne was secure. If Maximilian were ousted halfway through, these debts would no longer concern him.
It was the Mexican government borrowing money, not Maximilian himself. If he were to be driven from power by his enemies, leaving them with a mess would be a small form of retaliation.
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