Chapter 354: Getting Further and Further Away from the Truth
On the morning of October 25, 1864, Franz, who had just awakened from his sleep, was stunned by the news of the Prussian government declaring war on the Kingdom of Denmark.
To be precise, the two countries had already declared war the previous afternoon. The news only reached Vienna late at night, so the quick-witted staff delayed reporting it until Franz awoke.
With absolutely no prior indication, the two nations had suddenly gone to war. As for Prussias casus belli of liberating German compatriots, Franz dismissed it outright.
A pretext was just pretext. Historically, the Prussians had also carried the banner of upholding German sovereignty, but under Franzs butterfly effect, the Prussian government no longer dared to wave that flag.
With Austrias resurgence, slogans and mottos related to German unification gradually disappeared from the official documents of the Prussian government.
Especially after the Paris Peace Conference, both the Kingdom of Prussia and the newly established German Federal Empire tacitly suppressed the idea of greater unification.
No one was a fool if they kept propagating it, theyd just be tailoring a wedding dress for Austria.
Once the idea of greater unification takes root, they would become the targets of that unification. While unification may seem beneficial to the populace, for the rulers, its an entirely different story.
Despite the significant powers granted to the various states governments within the new Holy Roman Empire, compared to being their own masters, the rulers authority was significantly reduced.
Driven by self-interest, the international agreements from the Paris Peace Conference that divided the German territories became the legal basis for Prussias departure from the German territories.
Legally speaking, the Kingdom of Prussia, like Belgium, the Netherlands, and Switzerland, is an independent country.
Continuing to carry the banner of maintaining sovereignty over the German territories would not only signal to the world that the Kingdom of Prussia remains part of Germany but also provide Austria with a legal basis for annexing them, wouldnt it?
The Prussian government wont engage in such foolishness. While the pretext of liberating German compatriots may seem a bit of a stretch, its still preferable to planting a political bomb.
This Prusso-Danish War involved the Duchies of Schleswig and Holstein, so the Austrian government will definitely need to take a stance.
After a simple breakfast, Franz convened a cabinet meeting in the palace.
Foreign Minister Wessenberg analyzed, Your Majesty, based on the intelligence weve gathered, we can preliminarily conclude that Prussia had premeditated this war, including its involvement in the recent Polish independence movement.
The Prussian governments daring declaration of war against Denmark likely has the shadow of Britain and France behind it; they may seek to capitalize on this opportunity to strike at the Russians.
The situation of the Russian government is currently precarious, with ongoing domestic reforms, the Central Asian War underway, and the outbreak of the Polish independence movement.
With so much happening simultaneously, the Russian governments finances would find it difficult to sustain another war.
If they were to intervene in the Prusso-Danish War, Britain and France would likely support Prussia in a proxy war against them, further draining their resources and disrupting the Russian governments reforms.
If Russia chooses to concede, its international reputation will suffer a significant blow. If they fail to protect their ally Denmark, the Russians would lose their status as a continental hegemon.
Whatever choice the Russian government makes, it will come with significant costs.
Perhaps the British are more inclined towards a proxy war to weaken Russias strength, while the French are more eager to seize the opportunity to pull down the Russians from their hegemonic position.
From a superficial analysis, the sudden declaration of war by the Prussian government against the Kingdom of Denmark undoubtedly suggests collusion between Britain, France, and Prussia. Otherwise, the Prussian government would not have the courage to challenge the Russians.
Only a few individuals are aware of the actions taken by the Junker aristocracy, and these individuals are unlikely to leak such information.
Many people within the Prussian military, including high-ranking officials, believe that this operation was planned jointly by the king, the cabinet, and the military, and nobody considers it a decision made independently by the military high command.
Certainly, only the top leadership could have planned this operation to cover up the most basic loopholes. If it had been planned by the lower ranks of the military, they would likely have foolishly launched the attack chanting slogans of For the unification of Germany.
This is also why Franz did not anticipate the actions of the Prussians in advance. Otherwise, he would have surely employed secret channels and launched an attack against the Danes under the banner of unifying Germany.
Those lacking political acumen could never foresee the ramifications of such a slogan. To them, it would suffice as long as it could arouse passion and bolster morale!
Political propaganda slogans cannot be shouted randomly; once they are out, they cannot be taken back.
Prime Minister Felix asked doubtfully, But why would the Prussian government play into the hands of Britain and France?
Just for the Duchies of Schleswig and Holstein, they have become mortal enemies with the Russians. Even if the Russian government currently cannot afford to deal with them, they will surely seek revenge in the future.
Even if the Prussian government is anti-Russian, they cannot ignore the power disparity between the two countries and blindly antagonize the Russians, can they?
The current situation is different from history. In the original timeline, during the Crimean War, the Russians lost their status as hegemon in Europe. At that time, the importance of the Kingdom of Denmark to the Russian government has decreased. Its merely a matter of prestige.
However, at this time, for the Russians, the Kingdom of Denmark is not just a matter of prestige but also a matter that preserves their position as the European hegemon.
Hegemony isnt just about having strength; it also requires gaining everyones recognition.
If a small kingdom like the Kingdom of Prussia can challenge its hegemony, what right does the Russian Empire have to claim European dominance?
Even if Alexander II swallows it for now due to domestic reforms, in the future, if Russia wants to vie for European hegemony again, they must make an example of the Kingdom of Prussia.
In this sense, the Prussian governments actions are very unwise. Even if they gain short-term benefits, endless troubles await in the future.
If unlucky, the Russian government may throw caution to the wind and attack. Even with English and French support, even if they may win the war, they would suffer crippling losses.
After mulling it over, Franz replied, It seems that from the very beginning, the Prussian government regarded the Russians as mortal enemies, regardless of whether they offended them or not.
I recall that in Russias European expansion strategy, the first target was Prussian Poland.
Prussian Poland occupies 46.3% of the Kingdom of Prussias territory. From the perspective of the Prussians, there is simply no room for compromise.
Faced with a powerful and potentially hostile Russian Empire, they had no choice but to align themselves with Britain and France.
Now, with the backing of these two great powers, they are being encouraged to cause trouble for the Russians, with the reward being the Schleswig and Holstein Duchies.
The Prussian government also does not want to see Russias reforms succeed. Since they have backers, they might as well strike first and catch Russia off-guard.
Theyre not without a chance of victory. If they take the risk and defeat Russia once, not only can they swallow the two duchies, but also make Prussian Poland independent as a buffer between them, dramatically changing their strategically passive position.
Franzs level of imagination was quite decent many in the Prussian government shared this view, though getting further and further away from the truth.
The Junker nobility responsible for planning this operation could guarantee with their family honor that they never intended to go as far as Franz imagined. Their motives were purely self-serving.
Defeating the Russians was never part of their plan.
Moltkes strategic plan was simply to quickly defeat the Danes and then hold the border fortresses against the Russian advance.
After all, the current Russian government was impoverished, with conservative factions at home obstructing reforms. Just drag things out for a few months and the Russian military would collapse on its own.
Furthermore, theres the Polish independence movement to contend with. Before suppressing the Polish uprising, the Russian armys incursion into Prussia could easily be cut off by the insurgents.
In the eyes of many, by the time the Russian government suppresses the Polish uprising, their coffers would already be depleted, leaving no funds to continue fighting.
However, the truth of the matter does not directly influence the decisions of the Austrian government. Even if the Prussians suddenly act irrationally, it doesnt affect Austrias choices.
After struggling to embrace the Prussian perspective, Prime Minister Felix spoke up: Your Majesty, since Prussia and Russia are on the verge of conflict, we too must make a choice.
With the involvement of the Duchies of Schleswig and Holstein, we are compelled to support Prussia in the upcoming conflict.
However, due to the Russo-Austrian alliance, in the potential war that follows, we may find ourselves supporting Russia. We are now at a crossroads, facing a difficult decision.
I suggest kicking the ball to the Russians. If they seek Austrias assistance, then let Russia and Austria divide Prussia. Russia can obtain the Polish territories of Prussia, while we gain the German territories. The disparity in benefits can be compensated with cash.
If the Russians do not agree to these terms, then we declare neutrality and refrain from participating in this Prusso-Russian conflict.
Franz rolled his eyes. This wasnt about dividing Prussia between the two nations; it was clearly about getting the Russians to express support for Austrias unification of the German territories.
Just look at the map: if Austria were to occupy the German territories of Prussia, the German Federal Empire would be surrounded by the Holy Roman Empire.
In such a scenario, if Franz still could not use political means to split up and gradually absorb the German Federal Empire, he would be ashamed to call himself master of the Habsburg monarchy.
Although the remaining German territories are not large in terms of land area, they are mostly fertile lands with a high level of economic development compared to the rest of Europe.
In addition to their economic significance, these regions also have sizable populations. Even without the Polish territories of Prussia, the remaining half of the Kingdom of Prussia along with the German Federal Empire still account for a population of around 17 to 18 million people.
When combined with the 60 million population of the new Holy Roman Empire, the merged Holy Roman Empire would surpass the total population of Britain and France. In terms of economic output alone, it would also surpass John Bull.
Unless the Russian government has gone collectively mad, such terms are simply not up for negotiation. Letting loose such a Central European behemoth would just be asking for trouble, wouldnt it?
Prime Minister Felixs real purpose is still to shut the Russians up and prevent them from asking Austria for help.
Otherwise, with the Russo-Austrian alliance treaty in hand, how will Austria respond to constant requests from the Russian government for loans and assistance?
If they give in, it could easily provoke resentment among German nationalists; if they dont, it would violate the alliance treaty, which wouldnt sit well morally.
Now by raising this issue, if Russia rejects supporting Austrias unification of the German territories, then the Russian government can no longer make demands for aid with a straight face.
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