Chapter 351: Disappearing Foresight, Change In Mentality
Intentionally or unintentionally, the Russians soon paid the price for their actions, as the Polish independence movement erupted more swiftly than in history.
Britain and France increased financial aid to the independence organizations. After the uprising broke out, the independence organizations rapidly raised an army and began sweeping across the region.
As a mere onlooker, Franz soon received a letter of protest from the Russian government.
In disbelief, Franz asked, Prime Minister, are you sure the contents of this letter of protest are genuine?
It was shocking for Franz to learn that in this Polish uprising, Austria had four hundred volunteers participating, most of whom were retired officers from Austrian-controlled Polish territories.
It was unbelievable that under the nose of the Austrian government, Polish independence could muster such an armed force. Something fishy was going on if there were no issues.
Undermining the Russians behind the scenes is one thing, but having so many volunteers emerge openly is practically telling the world that Austria supports the Polish independence movement.
The Russo-Austrian alliance had not been dissolved yet. Stabbing the Russian government in the back like this was indefensible on moral grounds!
Prime Minister Felix answered awkwardly, Your Majesty, there are indeed many Poles in Galicia supporting this uprising. The number participating is not just four hundred, our statistics show eight hundred people.
And if things continue as they are, this number will still increase. We made a miscalculation beforehand; we didnt anticipate so many people would join this uprising, so we didnt take precautions.
Franz rubbed his forehead, unsure of what to say. After the Polish independence movement erupted, Poles from all over the world participated.
There are several million Poles in Austria alone, so having some volunteers was inevitable, but this quantity is a bit too much.
Could someone be framing us? Franz asked uncertainly.
He strongly suspected it was a plot by Britain and France aimed at sowing discord between Russia and Austria to dismantle the Russo-Austrian alliance.
Prime Minister Felix replied, Your Majesty, please rest assured. We have investigated, and these people are not problematic and did indeed volunteer for the uprising.
Many of them were originally residents of the Russian-controlled Polish territories and migrated to Galicia due to dissatisfaction with Russian rule.
Now, their participation in the uprising is likely fueled by resentment. We have taken action, and such occurrences will not continue in the future.
Faced with this outcome, Franz could only attribute it to Russias self-destructive actions. If they could drive people to flee the country, only to have those exiles still seek vengeance, what could be done?
Of course, there must have been someone in the Austrian government facilitating their entry; otherwise, it would be impossible for so many people to enter Poland smoothly.
Franz pondered for a moment before saying, Let the Foreign Ministry slowly explain things to the Russians and meanwhile, issue a diplomatic statement clarifying that the Polish issue in Russian Poland is an internal matter of the Russian Empire, and other countries should not interfere.
Regardless of the circumstances, the event had already occurred, and they could only try to manage the aftermath. Coincidentally, after Britain and France voiced support for the Polish independence movement internationally, other European countries followed suit, so the Russian government still needed Austrias support.
Given the situation, Franz did not expect any benefits. The priority was to express their stance, and whether the Russians believed it or not was beyond their control.
As for the rift in relations caused by this incident, it was significant but still fell short of breaking the Russo-Austrian alliance. As long as the alliance remained intact, they could gradually mend the relationship later on.
Foreign Minister Wessenberg replied, Your Majesty, the Russians will soon have their hands full. According to the information from our embassy in St. Petersburg, the Polish uprising forces have already exceeded one hundred thousand.
The Polish independence movement had been premeditated. After the uprising began, with both internal and external support, the one hundred thousand Russian troops deployed in the Polish region were routed by the Polish uprising forces.
Many units became captives before they could react, and numerous soldiers directly joined the Polish independence movement, seemingly in alliance with the Russian revolutionary organizations.
From the information we have gathered, the uprising forces are not entirely an unruly mob; their leadership should have undergone short-term military training.
Since the outbreak of the Polish uprising, at least five thousand volunteers from around the world have participated. Most of these individuals have received military training and have become officers in the rebel army.
The Foreign Ministry suspects that someone provided military training to the Polish independence organization. These volunteers are likely to have been trained in advance and swiftly entered Poland after the uprising broke out, leading the uprising.
Franzs expression changed gravely. This was likely the truth. If even Austrias covert meddling could produce a few hundred volunteers, the overt actions of Britain and France would surely be more excessive.
Is it difficult to train personnel for the Polish independence organization?
For seasoned troublemakers, its far too easy. Recruit a bunch of anti-Russian Poles, give them basic training, send them to the colonies to fight a few battles, and those who survive would become qualified soldiers.
If the Russian revolutionary organizations were also involved, then the situation became even more complex, meaning the rebellion would not be limited to just Poland, with the possibility of revolution erupting across the vast Russian Empire.
The reforming Russian Empire was undoubtedly at a crossroads. Now is the most vulnerable time; there are too many within the country dissatisfied with the reforms of the Russian government.
Radicals dislike the Tsars reforms for not being thorough enough, while conservatives feel that the reforms have harmed their interests. Once these dissatisfied individuals are provoked, who knows what they might do?
In fact, there has never been peace within the Russian Empire since the reforms of Alexander II began. Newly liberated serfs sigh as they look at the exorbitant redemption payments for land.
The land redemption process in Russia is not as harmonious as in Austria. These redemption payments also include interest, which is not the same concept as the unified payment standards set by Franz.
In Austria, the land redemption payments are basically based on 5-10 years of land output as the baseline, collected uniformly by the government and then transferred to the landowners.
Farmers can pay in installments for up to forty years, without considering interest. The annual redemption payments are within everyones means.
Due to the unified distribution, the collection standard is also set at 20% of the actual annual land output, which can be paid more or less, as long as it is cleared within the specified period.
Due to the factors of rebellion, the government confiscated a considerable amount of land. This collection actually earns the Austrian government a lot of profit, so naturally, they can use some of the money to alleviate the situation when there is insufficient redemption payment during years of disasters.
When it comes to the Russian government, things are different. The landowners are still alive and well, and most of the land belongs to these nobles. Before the reforms, there were fewer than twenty peasant estates in Russia, and even the free peasants owned only a small amount of land.
In this context, its definitely impossible to reduce land redemption prices. Unified collection and distribution without interest payments are also out of the question.
If it werent for the revolution, Franz wouldnt have had the ability to force the nobles to accept such harsh conditions. In reality, Austrias land reform wasnt thorough either.
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Many nobles who were not involved in or affected by the rebellion still owned large amounts of land, and the government couldnt force them to sell if they were unwilling.
The lack of social conflicts mainly stemmed from the Austrian governments reduction of the per capita land redemption area, ensuring that everyone could redeem land, albeit uncertain in location.
Later, with expansion in the Balkans and the establishment of overseas colonies, the previously scarce land supply became more abundant, and land conflicts were finally completely resolved.
Now the Colonial Ministrys immigration slogan was:
Want your own farm? Go to the colonies and cultivate the land.
Want your own plantation? Go to the colonies and cultivate the land.
As much land as you can cultivate, thats how much land you can own.
This was something the Russian government couldnt do. Although there was plenty of uncultivated land available domestically, these lands still had owners.
The average land area acquired by peasants through redemption was even lower than that in Austria, surprisingly. Of course, this calculation includes those from the Balkan Peninsula, where Romania and Serbia provided a significant amount of arable land.
Alexander IIs reforms only provided enough land for 13% of the serfs to live on; for the 42% of serfs, the land acquired barely sustained them after paying redemption dues; the rest had to resort to working elsewhere since they couldnt survive solely on the land.
This provided an abundant labor force for the development of capitalism in Russia. Historically, with the development of the capitalist economy, a portion of the rural population moved to cities, gradually alleviating the previously scarce land supply issue.
In the late 19th century, the Russian Empire regained strength thanks to the reforms of Alexander II.
Unfortunately, at present, Russias capitalist economy is just beginning to develop and cannot absorb too much population.
The social benefits brought about by the reforms have not yet been fully realized, but the social contradictions brought about by them have already begun to manifest.
We must closely monitor the direction of the situation in Russia, understand the forces involved, and be prepared to intervene. We cannot allow Russia to undergo major upheaval.
Franz made a decisive decision: its acceptable to cause some trouble for the Russians, but its better not to destroy the Russian Empire completely!
Unless its possible to dismantle the Russian Empire and permanently eliminate the threat, its better to preserve the Russian government.
After all, Russia ruled by the current Russian government posed a limited threat to Austria. There are too many people internally dragging their feet, and even the talented Alexander II couldnt change this.
But if the rules are broken, then its a different story. Franz could even take advantage of the chaos to consolidate Hungary and integrate Austria. Who can guarantee that Russia wont produce a formidable figure to turn the tables?
At least Alexander II had that capability. He couldnt solve the problem completely within the rules. But once the order is disrupted, the situation changes. Nicholas I left him the greatest legacy: a military loyal to the Tsar.
As long as the military was controlled, many problems essentially ceased being problems. By overturning the chessboard, Alexander II had a strong possibility of regaining power.
If it were any other country, a coalition of nations could intervene, but when it comes to Russia, Franz admits he fears the cold.
TN: Never invade Russia in winter!
If Russia rises from the ashes, then Austria could do nothing much except act as Europes gatekeeper, responsible for keeping an eye on the bear.
Prime Minister Felix objected, Your Majesty, we should not act rashly now. Although Alexander IIs reforms harmed many interests, they did not cross the conservatives bottom line.
As long as these people stay quiet, Russia wont descend into chaos. The collapse of the Russian forces in Poland is mainly because there are too many Polish soldiers among them.
To ensure stability in Poland, the Russian government recently ordered conscription from the Polish region in an attempt to relocate these people away from Poland, but the plan backfired as the uprising broke out as soon as it began.
The Russian army remains loyal to the Tsar, and the revolutionary parties have not yet influenced the military. A minor rebellion cannot shake the foundations of Russia.
As long as Britain and France dont personally intervene with military force, it wont be long before the rebellion is suppressed.
Hearing the Prime Ministers explanation, Franz breathed a sigh of relief. As an insider, he had overlooked that Britain and France would not directly intervene.
After losing the Near East War, Britain became much more cautious on European issues, trying its best to stay out when possible.
As for France, Napoleon III had nearly lost his throne, how could it be possible for him to wade into the Russian quagmire again?
The Kingdom of Prussia was simply disregarded. Despite their later reputation, if Russia so much as sneezed, the Prussian government would be trembling with fear.
For Austria now, the best option was to sit back and watch the show rather than prepare for intervention. Any action by the Austrian government could potentially send the wrong signal to the outside world, leading to an uncontrollable situation.
Franz thought for a while and then said, The Prime Minister is correct, I was too anxious. For now, inaction is better than action. Have the Foreign Ministry tell the Russian government that we support any of their actions on the Polish issue, and attribute the volunteer matter to Britain and France. As for everything else, were not involved and know nothing about it.
Since the strategy is to remain passive, they could simply feign ignorance.
Britain and France can afford to provoke hatred because they are far enough from the Russians to not fear retaliation from them.
If they can strike a blow against the Russians, great. If not, they can still irritate them and use the Polish independence movement to delay the Russian governments reform process.
Is it really that simple? In todays world, the international situation has changed beyond recognition, and Franzs early advantage of foresight no longer exists.
After organizing his thoughts, Franz quickly came to a realization.
Austria is no longer the Austria of history. It has already accumulated enough advantages, and even without the advantage of foresight, it still maintains a favorable position in international competition.
Being overly concerned about the upheaval in the Russian Empire is actually due to Franzs lack of confidence. After all, the influence of past beliefs is too great, to the extent that he has overlooked the changes in his own strength.
Compared to any competitor, Austria has one or more advantages in certain areas, and all that needs to be done is to leverage these advantages.
First and foremost is the quality of the population. By taking the initiative to implement compulsory education, Austria is now reaping the benefits of this.
Once the Second Industrial Revolution kicks off, the advantage of being first in the game is already predetermined. By the time competitors react, Austria would have already taken the lead.
It would even seem that Austria was not lagging behind currently; it was keeping pace with the British and even surpassing them in certain industries.
On the other hand, the empire of usury has already shown signs of deviation. The inadequate domestic coal production has raised the costs of many industries in France, leading capitalists to increasingly favor profiting in finance.
Short-term competitors like Britain and France, constrained by population size and domestic territory, have already reached their development limits.
The constraints of domestic territory and resources can still be compensated for using colonies. Everyone is a colonial empire, so resources are not lacking. However, the shortage of population cannot be resolved.
Wait, the French are already figuring out a solution. Thats through external expansion. Napoleon III has just annexed the Kingdom of Sardinia, supplementing the domestic labor shortage.
The British are the ones truly helpless. Surrounded by the sea on all sides, if they want to expand, they have to go to the continent. Its a pity that John Bull doesnt dare; as soon as they set foot on the European mainland, theyll be taught a lesson.
Mid-term competitors like the Russian Empire are still undergoing reforms, but they are at least twenty years behind industrially. This gap cannot be bridged in the short term.
Even if they cheat, it will take over a decade to catch up. In this era of rapid technological change, opponents cannot afford to wait for them to catch up.
As long as it was under Tsarist rule, such cheat-like accelerated development was impossible. If they can ensure normal development speed, it is already Gods blessing.
As for long-term competitors like the Americans, after the turmoil of the Civil War, its estimated that their development will be delayed by another 20-30 years. At least they have to wait until they achieve national unity again before they can compete for world dominance.
These advantages can only be considered superficial. The real advantage is that competitors have not yet recognized their own weaknesses or taken appropriate measures to address these issues.
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