Chapter 328: Intimidated
Austria was on the move, and neither Britain, France, nor Spain remained idle. Firstly, the Spanish seized the Spanish Island (Hispaniola), and then the three powers accelerated their expansion in Mexico.
The British had just suppressed the Indian Rebellion, and the French focus was still on Italy. So, this time, Mexico was luckier than in history; the expansion of the powers mainly involved economic and political penetration.
If they werent concerned about provoking the two American governments in the midst of the Civil War, they would probably have penetrated into the various states of the United States as well.
Reestablishing a colonial system in North America had always been the dream of British, French, and Spanish colonizers. The American Monroe Doctrine had blocked everyones path, so now they naturally wanted to remove this obstacle.
London
As the worlds foremost naval power, the British deservedly took the lead in this joint intervention plan in the United States.
No one contested their dominance as the British had the strongest presence in the Americas. If the Americans didnt mobilize, even John Bulls garrison in Canada could handle them.
However, this wasnt something to be proud of. The small size of the American army didnt truly reflect their strength; the majority of the federal states militias were more potent than the federal governments forces.
In the Prime Ministers office at 10 Downing Street, the newly appointed British Prime Minister, John Russell, was convening a meeting.
Gentlemen, that fellow Lincoln has ordered the blockade of the Eastern coast. Ensuring the continuity of trade with the Confederate government has become our current challenge.
Undoubtedly, the capitalists in the cotton textile industry had exerted pressure on the British government. If the blockade was only temporary, everyone could endure it for a while.
If the blockade persists long-term, or if the Northern government wins the war, then Britains dominant position in the cotton textile industry will be shaken.
This is absolutely unacceptable. Its crucial to understand that the cotton industry is the cornerstone of the British economy; any problem in this sector would severely damage the entire British economy.
The Secretary of the Navy, Edward, said calmly, Prime Minister, theres no need to worry too much about this issue. The Confederacy has a lengthy coastline, and I doubt the American navy has the strength to blockade it all.
Currently, the Northern government is still working hard on building ships. When they do amass enough strength, we can coordinate with other countries to intervene and designate the coastal areas of the Confederacy as safe zones.
At present, Austrias fleet has already reached the west coast of America, while the French fleet is on its way, and when combined with our fleet and the Spanish fleet in the Americas, the Americans simply wont stand a chance.
This isnt baseless speculation; during this era, American military power truly was lacking.
Lets not even talk about the tiny size of the Federal Army, numbering 16,000 men. After the outbreak of the Civil War, it instantly decreased by a third. (Translator Note: The U.S. Army underwent an enormous expansion during the Civil War (186165), growing from a peacetime strength of about 16,000 troops in December 1860 to a maximum size of 1,000,000 by 1865.)
The United States Federal Army was scattered across the country, and the army stationed in the Southern states naturally operated independently from the federal governments command.
If the army wasnt up to par, neither was the navy. When President Lincolns blockade order was issued, the American Navy, which had long been complacent, discovered that, for various reasons, only 42 out of its 90 warships were operational, with only three suitable for coastal missions.
There was no way around it. The American Navy had been trained for deep-sea combat but lacked any experience or training in coastal operations.
Historically, despite gaining naval superiority, the Northern government did not launch a large-scale coastal attack on the South, mainly due to a lack of familiarity with coastal defenses and fortifications.
Bureaucrats, they all understand. Most of the funds were in the hands of the Southern states themselves, with no backup from the federal government. No one had foreseen the day when they would attack their own territory from the sea.
Secretary of State Agarwal said, Things arent that simple. The three nations of Austria, France, and Spain each have their own agendas and wont simply follow our commands.
Currently, the Royal Navys strength in the Americas is insufficient. If we intervene in their actions, it means handing over the leadership of the intervention alliance. If were not in charge, how can we ensure Britains interests?
In this era where might make right, power equals influence. Just hoping for benefits without contributing wont work.
The great powers arent fools. While British strength could intimidate smaller indigenous nations, fellow powers like Austria, France, and Spain wouldnt be intimidated.
If Britain just stands by, theres a risk that the three nations might join forces and divide North Americas interests among themselves, leaving them in a dire situation.
The likelihood of such an event is very small, but the possibility cannot be ruled out. When it comes to interests, anything is possible.
Prime Minister John Russell turned to Foreign Secretary Gladstone, hoping he would present a reliable plan, as this issue was seven parts diplomacy, two parts politics, and one part military.
Gladstone analyzed, From the current situation, Austrias goal should be Central America, while France and Spain target Mexico. All three nations aim to carve out a piece of flesh from the Americans.
The American rabble is difficult to govern, so our main goal should be economic interests. Currently, Austria has the upper hand, seizing most of the American arms market.
Preliminary estimates suggest they have earned around three million pounds in profit. Our arms dealers have been too short-sighted and slow to react.
Prime Minister John Russell shook his head and said, This is just a minor issue. Arms sales are a one-off deal, and theyll dry up after the civil war ends. Lets focus on maximizing our benefits!
Three million pounds might seem like an astronomical figure to an individual, but for the government in London, its just so-so.
If it were a long-term income, it might have caught the attention of Prime Minister John Russell, but this one-off deal is hardly enough to pique his interest.
The money has already lined someone elses pockets. Theres no way to snatch it back, is there? Even if they were to resort to thievery, it would be easier to rob the Americans directly than to rob Austria.
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Gladstone furrowed his brow. He didnt like being interrupted, especially after becoming the Foreign Secretary of the British Empire. However, this was the Prime Ministers office, not his own, and it was the Prime Minister who interrupted him. That is why Gladstone refrained from showing his displeasure.
Prime Minister, the arms trade actually relates to our upcoming plans. Austrias intentions are quite clear; they want the North and the South to continue fighting.
Upon closer examination of their arms exports, its evident that the mastermind behind it is the House of Habsburg, although its unclear whether its a specific member or Emperor Franz himself.
Since Austria can play a balancing act between the North and the South, we can do the same, albeit with some favoritism towards the weaker Southern government.
However, this approach carries significant risks; a misstep could tip the scales in favor of one side. If the South wins, its manageable, as they lack the capacity to unify the country. But if the North emerges victorious, it will spell trouble.
To counter this, the Austrian government has dispatched its fleet. This fleet likely serves as their tool to maintain balance between the North and the South, allowing them to intervene immediately if the North gains the upper hand.
I propose dispatching a fleet capable of overwhelming the American navy and increasing the number of troops in the Canadian region to assert dominance when necessary.
Chancellor of Exchequer James objected: Hold on, Foreign Secretary, dont forget that deploying troops also costs money. Weve just suppressed the Indian rebellion, which has already cost us a staggering 280 million pounds in military expenses.
The governments finances simply dont allow us to launch another major war. I dont believe the Americans are pushovers. If they were easy to deal with, they would still be our colony.
Foreign Secretary Gladstone chimed in discontentedly, Chancellor, dont always view things from a financial standpoint. As Britains Chancellor of the Exchequer, you must consider the bigger picture.
The investments we make now can yield double returns in the near future. A strong America is not in our interest, especially when Canada is constantly under threat.
The Americans have always harbored intentions of driving us out of the Americas. If we miss this opportunity, itll be much harder to rally allies in the future.
With the four nations sharing the military expenses, the actual burden wont be too significant. If Austria dares to dispatch a fleet, why shouldnt we?
Chancellor of Exchequer James shook his head and said, The Austrians are doing this for Central America; they joined the colonial movement late, and the worlds most fertile regions have already been divided up.
The Austrian government can exploit the African continent regardless of cost, let alone the even more favorable natural conditions in Central America.
However, we dont need to. Britain now needs to rest and recuperate. Launching another large-scale war that would be difficult to control is completely not worth the cost.
This is the impression Franzs development of the African continent has left on the outside world. In many peoples eyes, Austrias African colonies were losing money badly.
In fact, thats true; except for the West African region with gold mines, which barely breaks even, the remaining areas have been consistently losing money, and not small amounts at that.
This was completely different from other countries concepts of managing overseas colonies. In this era, everyone was trying to generate returns as quickly as possible, with minimal investment in developing the colonies.
Secretary of the Navy, Edward, spoke up, saying, Chancellor, the more prepared we are for this intervention plan, the less likely it is for a full-scale war to break out.
Lets not forget the strength of the intervention alliance, which far exceeds that of the Federal government. What gives them the audacity to engage in war with us? Even if a conflict does arise, I dont see it as a bad thing.
The Southern Confederate government has already tied up much of their strength, allowing us to join forces with the Austro-French-Spanish trio and strike directly at these rebels, effectively dividing up the North American continent again.
As for wiping out the Federal government, thats wishful thinking. Unless the British are willing to overextend themselves, at most theyll only take control of the coastal regions.
Americas territory was massive. Once they entered the inland regions, military spending would flow out like water. Historically, America was able to gain independence precisely because Britains finances could not endure.
In the War of 1812, when the British even burned down the White House, they still eventually gave up on their plans to subjugate America due to excessive military expenditure.
Prime Minister John Russell intervened to ease the tension, saying, Gentlemen, youre getting off track. The most critical issue now is ensuring the smooth flow of maritime transportation to guarantee the normal supply of cotton domestically.
Due to the extensive damage caused by the Indian Rebellion, our plans to establish a second cotton center in India have had to be postponed.
Additionally, efforts to promote cotton cultivation in Egypt have faced obstacles. On one hand, there is local resistance to cotton cultivation among the Egyptian populace; on the other hand, the construction of the canal has absorbed a significant portion of the workforce.
Therefore, the debate over whether to increase troops in North America is meaningless.
Currently, we must increase our military presence. If the cotton supply chain is severed by the Northern government, how will we justify ourselves to Parliament?
This is a real problem. Cotton cultivation also takes time. Without several years of promotion, its impossible to scale it up.
Unfortunately, the scope and duration of this Indian rebellion far exceeds that in history. The cotton plantations previously established by the British have also been destroyed by the rebels.
Within three to five years, it will be difficult to have large-scale cotton production in India. Cotton cultivation in Egypt is also facing difficulties in promotion. The domestic cotton textile industry cannot afford to wait.
As for other cotton-producing regions in the world, the British government doesnt even consider them, as their production capacity is insufficient to meet their needs.
Without new sources of cotton, the British governments options are limited. Domestic cotton merchants just want to make a profit, but theyre not prepared to ruin the domestic textile industry.
The cotton theyve hoarded can only support them until the first half of next year at most.
If they didnt obtain enough cotton this year, the British cotton textile industry would face closure starting in the middle of 1862.
The Chancellor of the Exchequer chose to remain silent decisively. Bringing up financial constraints at this point would be too shortsighted, and it would likely draw the ire of capitalists.
If the industry collapses due to a lack of raw material supply, it would truly be catastrophic.
Just thinking about the quarter of the population involved in that industrial chain, no one could dare to undertake such dire consequences.
They didnt even trust the intervention alliance; who knows if Austria, France, and Spain might compromise with the Northern government and betray them.
For such a life-and-death matter, its best to take matters into their own hands.
The Secretary of State frowned and said, Prime Minister, its imperative to establish a cotton-producing region fully under our control. We cant afford to have our lifeline constantly under someone elses thumb.
Even the Austrians, disregarding costs, have established a cotton plantation to meet domestic demands. Theres no reason why we cant do the same.
John Russells face changed color, exclaiming, This is bad. We must immediately dispatch a fleet to the Americas to deter the Austrians. We cant let them lean towards the Northern government.
Everyone realized the urgency; with cotton supplies dwindling across European nations, Austrias textile industry was poised to capitalize on the market.
Even just for the sake of dominance of the cotton textile industry, the Austrian government had every reason to stab them in the back. As for diplomatic agreements, they were made to be torn up.
The British had done this many times, so they naturally believed Austria might act the same way.
It would make total sense to abruptly shift support to the North in exchange for a cotton embargo which would greatly benefit them.
Secretary of State Agarwal added, The Austrians are indeed likely eyeing our dominance in the cotton textile industry. Based on their cotton consumption in previous years, the cotton output in West Africa has already exceeded their needs by a good margin.
However, they havent exported any, instead shipping it all back home. Due to the American Civil War, this years global cotton production decrease has become a certainty, but cotton plantations in West Africa are still increasing.
We can send someone to attempt a tentative purchase; if they insist on not selling externally, then well have a big problem on our hands.
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