Chapter 277: Reflection
After the outbreak of the Central Asian War, the Persian government realized that it had been deceived by the Russian government, or rather by the bureaucrats within the Tsarist regime.
The so-called aid was indeed given, but in practice, it was delayed and reduced in quantity.
Minor issues that were inconsequential in peacetime became major problems during the war, and due to inadequate support, the Persian military was initially overwhelmed by the British.
For their own safety, the Persian government decided to bring in a third force to balance the power between Britain and Russia and end this war as quickly as possible.
Unfortunately, the officials in the Persian government were not very bright. Their first thought was to rely on America to counteract the influences of Great Britain and Russia.
It was quite unfortunate that the United States at this time was not the powerful nation it would become in later years. While they may have had some influence in American affairs, who would recognize them in Central Asia?
The Americans, who only wanted to share privileges, naturally cowered at the first sight of Britain and Russias firm attitude. Of course, even if they didnt cower, no one would listen to them.
Left with no other choice, the Persian government once again turned to the European continent, seeking help from France and Austria.
Vienna
Metternich handed Franz a document and said, Your Majesty, this is a diplomatic note from the Persian government in the hope that we can mediate in this Central Asian War.
After going through it, Franz shook his head and said, Reject the Persian government. We currently have no need to involve ourselves in Persian affairs.
The Austrian government still wanted Britain and Russia to clash in Central Asia. To mediate at this time would be unnecessary meddling.
As for the economic benefits promised by the Persian government, they were actually of little value to Austria. Austrias main exports in international trade were processed agricultural products and a small amount of industrial products and machinery.
Persia could sustain itself in terms of food, and couldnt afford Austrias processed agricultural products. As a traditional feudal monarchy, Persia had little demand for industrial products and machinery, and with competition from the British, there was hardly any profit to be made.
Before the Suez Canal was dug, Franz had no intention of getting involved in Persian affairs. If he had the time, he might as well infiltrate the Arabian Peninsula, at least using the Sinai Peninsula as a foothold.
Yes, Your Majesty! Metternich replied.
Apparently, he also had no interest in interfering in Persian affairs. Perhaps it was old age that made him more conservative, or perhaps he simply decided from an interest-based perspective.
None of this mattered. In the midst of ongoing reforms, Franz still needed conservatives to act as a brake, to keep them from speeding ahead too recklessly.
Mainly because they failed to find the right balance, many old empires tended to fall faster the more they reformed. Those that needed drastic measures were already half dead, fighting a last, desperate battle.
Obviously, the New Holy Roman Empire hadnt reached that point yet. The neighboring Ottoman Empire, on the other hand, was truly in need of drastic measures, having been on life support since the loss of the Balkan Peninsula.
The Minister of the Navy, Filkos, suggested: Your Majesty, the island of Corfu has long been known as the gateway to Venice. Without securing the Adriatic, we cannot consider ourselves truly safe.
Although the British have only made the Ionian Islands a protectorate and have not stationed substantial troops there, the potential threat still exists. We must seize the opportunity to take control of this area.
Strength is always the best assurance. With the commissioning of the Frederick, the Austrian Navy began to feel restless, eager to secure this strategic gateway.
Franz nodded and said, Dealing with this issue now may be a bit cumbersome, but the Ministry of Foreign Affairs can initiate contact with the British to see if they are willing to sell it to us.
From what I have heard, the locals seem to have a strong dislike for the British. The puppet government they support in the area does not have the support of the people. If necessary, we can plan local riots to incite the local people to revolt.
Franz was not worried about whether the British would let go. Once the Indian rebellion erupted, the British government would have no choice but to compromise.
However, you cant have both fish and bears paw. By obtaining this, there would be no way to exchange interests with the British in other regions.
Metternich replied, Your Majesty, if it were only Corfu, the British would probably let it go. They are more concerned about us taking advantage of the Ottoman Empires troubles.
Recently, the British Foreign Office has been in frequent contact with the French. Theyre likely trying to win over the French to prevent us from expanding our influence in the Mediterranean.
Corfu is just one of the Ionian Islands, very important to the Austrians, but not so important to the British.
Since gaining control of the island in 1815, the British government has never stationed many troops there. This is partly to avoid provoking Austria, and partly because its simply unnecessary.
As for containing Austria? That can be done in Malta or the Strait of Gibraltar. Why bother going to their doorstep?
Each additional military base comes with enormous military expenditures. The British government may be rich, but theyre not stupid.
Prime Minister Felix said, There is little room left for expansion in the Mediterranean. The remaining areas are either British and French territories or under Ottoman influence.
The Vienna System has just been established and is still very fragile. At this time, any action on our part must be cautious and prudent.
Navy Minister Filkos analyzed: We cannot touch Egypt, that was an agreement made with Britain and France that cannot be violated.
We have already given up on Morocco. Algeria is in French hands. Tunisia is also meat on the chopping block for Napoleon III. If we dont want a conflict with France, these territories are off-limits.
As for the homeland of the Ottoman Empire, it goes without saying. If we were to defeat them, it would only benefit the Russians, and it would be more trouble than its worth for us.
The place of greatest strategic value that remains is Crete. Occupying it would extend our sphere of influence into the Aegean Sea and increase our say in the Mediterranean.
As for Cyprus, it was now of strategic value only to the Ottoman Empire. For Austria, it might be of strategic value only in the mid to late 20th century.
Libya even less so. The desert country did not deserve its reputation. With a total population of only 500,000-600,000 nomads, neither Britain nor France expanded there, not for lack of strength, but for lack of value.
In the same era, elites have similar perspectives. Places that Britain and France dont find appealing naturally do not interest the Austrian government either.
Franz casually remarked, The finances of the Ottoman Empire are in a terrible state. If they hadnt sold their remaining Balkan territories to the French, they probably wouldn't even be able to pay the interest.
Now that the Ottoman government is undergoing reforms and likely strapped for cash, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs can engage with them to purchase or lease Crete and Cyprus.
If theyre willing to sell the sovereignty of Libya, that's also an option. In the future, we might even be able to build a railway line between Libya and the Gulf of Guinea, which would go a long way toward consolidating our control over the region.
Talking about anything else is pointless. Predicting the future, and having strategic foresight these are things only fools do. Without a protagonists halo, they would be dead within three episodes.
Thats fine for fooling ordinary people, but to dream of fooling the elites of this era? Thats wishful thinking. Theyll come to only one conclusion: the emperor has gone mad!
Talking directly about tangible benefits is the most effective approach; forcing the issue will only set you up to be isolated and vulnerable to betrayal at any time.
Just as now, Franz believes that the Congo Basin is Austrias most valuable colony, while the Austrian government considers the Gulf of Guinea Austrias most valuable colonial territory.
Although he knew this, Franz had no plans to convince them.
The benefits of the Gulf of Guinea are visible and can be recouped in 1-2 years, whereas the Congo Basin will not pay for itself without sustained investment for over 3-5 years.
It was absurd to talk about the future. The international situation was changing rapidly, and the future ownership of colonies was unpredictable. What prospects for development could one speak of?
The attitudes of European countries toward colonies are generally similar: colonies that can produce short-term profits are considered valuable, while those that cannot produce returns are considered worthless.
Archduke Louis objected: Your Majesty, we dont need to invest too much effort in the Mediterranean. Apart from the island of Corfu, other areas are quite insignificant.
They lack both strategic and economic value. Why not seize the opportunity to expand our influence in the Pacific? Recently, there have been reports that Britain and France are planning major operations in the Far East, and we could get involved in that.
Franz shook his head and said, Following behind Britain and France, how much benefit can we obtain? A round trip for our Navy to the Far East would take a year, and with the time spent at war, it could take two years. Having battle lines stretched too long does us no good. Only interests that can be defended are real interests.
This reasoning was not entirely convincing, but it appealed to everyones sentiments. There were no radicals in the Austrian cabinet. Franz felt that he was already quite radical, and any more radicals in the Austrian government would cause trouble.
Throughout world history, countries ruled by radicals have always ended tragically. Even when they succeed, its only a temporary success that inevitably leads to significant losses.
Just like now, if radicals were in power, who would use diplomatic means? Theyd go straight for it.
In many peoples eyes, it was just bullying the Ottoman Empire, nothing to worry about.
But in reality? As you continue to expand and conquer territory, the number of enemies grows. With every success, failure comes ever closer.
Every country has its limits of tolerance. In the history of the First World War, it was certainly not only because countries saw Germany as a threat that they started the war.
More importantly, it was Germanys constant expansion and provocations that rattled the nerves of various countries. The first few times it didn't affect interests much, so everyone tolerated it. But after several provocations, there was nothing left to say except to give them a good beating.
If the government of Wilhelm II could have restrained itself, not antagonized the British, and bided its time for a few more years, would the situation have been so dire?
The answer is: No!
As long as the Germans didnt blindly expand their navy and rush to enlist Italy, the German-Austrian alliance and the Franco-Russian entente would have been evenly matched from an outside-world perspective. Under the European continental balance strategy, John Bull wouldnt have personally intervened.
Other situations cannot be guaranteed, but buying time for another ten years should have been possible.
What does ten years mean? It means that Germanys national strength can continue to advance, that its population can increase by ten million, and that its advantage over sluggish France will become even more pronounced. The French wont even be able to afford a war of attrition on the Western Front.
It also means that the Russian Empire will continue to decline, with more intense internal conflicts, reducing pressure on the Eastern Front.
With one side strengthened and the other weakened, even if total victory cant be achieved, its still possible to defeat France and Russia, forcing the British to compromise and share world hegemony.
History doesnt deal with what ifs. The radical Junker aristocrats both brought the glory of the German Empire and buried it with their own hands.
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