Chapter 274: Turmoil in Central Asia
Thanks to Franzs butterfly effect, the Russians were able to capture Constantinople despite heavy losses in the Near East War. In the face of victory, domestic crises were temporarily suppressed.
After two years of recuperation, the Russian government became restless again. However, there were no more opportunities for expansion on the European continent with the reconstruction of the Vienna System. The Russian government had to turn its sights to Asia.
In October 1856, at the instigation of the Russians, the Persian dynasty captured Herat. Stirred by this, the British immediately declared war on the Persian dynasty, leading to the outbreak of the Anglo-Persian War.
With its special geographic location west of the Persian Gulf, north of the Caspian Sea and the Amu Darya River, and east of the Indus River, Herat had strategic importance and became a key link in the Anglo-Russian struggle for dominance over the Asian continent.
During the Near East War, the Russians had planned to send troops for a distant expedition to India to pressure the British to withdraw from the war. Herat was an unavoidable obstacle to this plan.
At the time, the Herat government, fearful of offending the British, denied the Russian request for passage, leading to a deterioration in relations between the two countries.
To remove this obstacle, the Russian government shifted its support to the Persian dynasty, even supporting the Persian invasion of Herat.
Influenced by the outbreak of the war in Central Asia, the negotiations in the Gulf of Guinea also took a turn. The British government had to make concessions to win the support of international public opinion.
Without that troublemaker, Great Britain, the subsequent negotiations were much easier. As a late entrant, France had no major interests there, and the French government did not fight hard for them. The other countries simply lacked the strength to compete.
On November 1, 1856, Great Britain, France, Austria, Russia, America, Portugal, and the Netherlands signed the Treaty of the Gulf of Guinea, also known as the Treaty of the Seven Nations, in Vienna.
The treaty stipulated that the coastal areas of the Gulf of Guinea would be divided along the lines of actual occupation by each country. The colonies of each country could not attack each other, and any gold mines discovered inland would belong to the discoverer.
On the surface, it seemed that no one was at a disadvantage; however, this had effectively established Austrian hegemony in the region, as Austria, with its manpower advantage, enjoyed absolute dominance.
America, Spain, and France jointly occupied Liberia; Austria, Britain, and Portugal jointly occupied Sierra Leone; Austria, Portugal, France, and the Netherlands jointly occupied the Ivory Coast; Austria, Britain, and the Netherlands jointly occupied Ghana; Britain and Austria jointly occupied Togo; and Austria exclusively occupied Guinea.
The influence of various powers in the Guinea Gulf intersected, making it the most chaotic region in the world. The Treaty of the Seven Nations only temporarily suppressed tensions among the nations and did not eliminate them.
Looking at the distribution of power among the nations, Franz had no words to say. It was a complete entanglement, such as in the case of Togo, where the British had only a few hundred men in a stronghold, yet they refused to leave.
There was no solution. At that time, the British Empire was simply so powerful at sea that it could not be expelled, even with Austrias advantage on the ground.
Franz did not feel uneasy. Since diplomatic matters were within the range of cannons, if they couldnt act openly against the British colonies, why not covertly?
Despite the complex power dynamics among the nations in the Gulf of Guinea, the intense competition was largely the result of British interference. They didnt want Austria to dominate the Gulf alone, which led to the involvement of several countries to counterbalance Austria.
If it werent for the influence of these nations, the likelihood of the British being pushed out of the Gulf of Guinea would be high. After all, their advantage was at sea, and once they set foot on land, their superiority diminished.
Unless they were holed up in their colonies and never ventured out, any colonial activity was fraught with danger. This was the African continent, accidents were normal.
To avoid this, the British government brought in other countries to share the Gulf of Guinea. Of course, since they were already getting the maximum benefit, Franz would not go to extremes.
Despite the weak presence of these countries, it was still a matter of face. Expelling them directly would ruin Austrias international standing.
Metternich said, Your Majesty, the Anglo-Persian war has broken out. The Russians hope that we can support their actions.
Support, they must offer support! Or at least verbal support. No matter how unruly the Russians may be, as long as they dont cause trouble on the European continent, Franz doesnt care.
Negotiations in West Africa were already at an impasse. The British, with their naval superiority, were not likely to give in easily. But when the Russians took action, they immediately made concessions.
Now, as the British secure their hold on colonial India, the Russians are inciting the Persians to take Herat. Can there be any doubt about their motives?
Without the French acting as a vanguard to possibly confront the Russians, even with the advantage of making the first move, the British government did not dare to let its guard down.
Franz thought for a moment and said, The Russian government wants to make trouble for the British, which is perfect for our overseas expansion. What kind of support do they want?
Metternich calmly replied, In addition to diplomatic support, they also want a loan.
Another loan. Franz understood why the German-Russian alliance collapsed historically. It wasnt because the government of Wilhelm II was stupid, they simply couldnt afford the Russians.
Although the German Empire was developing well and seemed very wealthy, as a new empire, they actually had little capital accumulation.
No matter how fast the economy grew, it did not change the fact that they lacked money. During the gold standard era, when the British controlled most of the worlds gold, the German government had to be very careful about issuing currency.
The economic scale was there in the market, but unfortunately, the government reserves were insufficient. The currency they were issuing was only enough to meet their own needs, there was no spare money to lend to the Russians.
To restrain the British, Franz decided to agree. After some thought, he said, The Ministry of Foreign Affairs will negotiate with the Russians. If the amount of the loan is small, we can agree, but there must be collateral.
Huge loans were impossible. The Austrian government was not wealthy either. Even if there were conditions attached to the loan, it wouldnt work.
Franz did not dare to recklessly increase the supply of currency. Even with sufficient gold reserves, flooding the market with a large amount of currency would cause inflation. Despite not being well-versed in economics, he understood this common knowledge.
Metternich explained, Your Majesty, Russia is unlikely to personally take the field in this war, so their financial gap may not be too great.
Although victory in the Near East War made many in the Russian government arrogant, there were also many wise individuals who recognized the limitations of their strength and sought to promote serf reform, gaining the support of Tsar Nicholas I.
After the war, Nicholas I planned to grant all soldiers the status of free citizens. However, the nobility, citing inadequate compensation, united to reject the proposal.
Now the reformists and conservatives are in intense conflict, making it difficult for the Russian government to focus on external expansion in the short term.
Franz asked anxiously, Is it possible for the Russian government to use the opportunity of war to divert domestic attention and carry out serf reform?
After pondering for a moment, Metternich replied, Your Majesty, that is almost impossible. The financial situation of the Russian government is very difficult at the moment, and they cannot raise the necessary funds for such a war.
India is the most important colony for the British, and the British government is not likely to give it up easily. Once this war breaks out, it is likely to be protracted.
The Russian government is probably aware of this, and its current approach is simply to obstruct the British, thus delaying the time it takes for them to annex India.
Of course, the Russian government was well aware of Britains strength. As their biggest competitor, if they didnt get in their way, how could they still be called enemies?
Starting a proxy war was a good choice. If it succeeded, it would be a great victory, and if it failed, it didnt matter. Selling out allies was something the Russian government was very experienced at.
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