Chapter 224: On the Necessity of Buffer Zones
Berlin
Austria’s ostentatious actions were not meant to be kept secret, so the Prussian government naturally received the news as well.
Frederick William IV was still hesitating whether to join the intervention alliance, but now he didn’t have to think about it anymore. If they didn’t find a way to respond, the Kingdom of Prussia would be history before the alliance could even be formed.
Foreign Minister Manteuffel analyzed: “Your Majesty, Austria is trying to intimidate us. To divide us between Russia, France, and Austria is not to their advantage. Once we are finished, Austria, caught between France and Russia, would be in an awkward position.
The gains they could make by dividing us would not be any greater than the annexation of the Southern German States, but the price they would pay would be much higher.”
This was inevitable. The Russians can mobilize about two hundred thousand men, while the French can muster at most a little over a hundred thousand. The main offensive burden would still fall on Austria.
Prussia’s military strength was not weak. In a life-or-death situation, they could field an army of five to six hundred thousand.
Even if they couldn’t defeat the three countries combined, they could still knock out some of Austria’s teeth in a fight to the death.
After paying such a high price, most of the post-war gains would be taken by France and Russia. A Prussia without Poland Prussia and the Rhineland would be worth no more than the Southern German States that Austria had already taken.
It would also be much more difficult to govern. The Junker nobility would not accept Austrian rule, while the local population of Southern Germany welcomed the Austrian army.
Frederick William IV said indignantly, “Theoretically you are right, but the danger still exists. Austria dared to be so blatant precisely because they determined that we would not dare to take the risk.”
This was not a risk, it was suicide. As long as Austria attacked Prussia with full force, France and Russia would certainly seize the opportunity.
Would Austria do that? No one knew the answer. However, Frederick William IV could confirm that this was the easiest way for Austria to get out of the mess.
Prime Minister Joseph von Radowitz thought for a moment and said, “Your Majesty, we can leave this problem to the British. If they cannot guarantee our safety, we will not join the nine-nation intervention alliance.
Austria still needs us to contain France. If we are gone, they will face the threat of France directly. As long as we withdraw now, they will stop.”
The choice was simple. The Prussian government had joined the intervention alliance for interest, and could likewise withdraw for interest.
The nine-nation alliance looked very strong, but in reality, only France and Prussia were the main forces, the rest were just there for numbers. As long as either France or Prussia faltered, the British plan would fail.
Manteuffel shook his head and said, “Prime Minister, I’m afraid the British will not be able to accomplish this task. They can persuade the French, but they have no way of persuading the Russians.
According to Austria’s plan, they will attack us before the alliance army is organized. The British will not be able to save us.
The only power that can help us is France, but for their interests, the French will probably just wait for us to be defeated and then annex our territories west of the Rhine.
At this point, we cannot pin our hopes on the British. History has shown that their promises are usually unreliable.
If we cannot get enough benefits from the intervention alliance, then allying with Austria to divide the German states might also be a good option.
At worst, we will join the Russo-Austrian alliance and rebuild the Three Northern Courts System to jointly dominate the European mainland. Britain and France would be powerless to prevent this.”
Frederick William IV hesitated. Austria’s annexation of the Southern German States had caused concern among the powers, but the immediate loss of interest was not great. Prussia’s loss was the greatest because of its smaller market.
It would be different if Prussia annexed the Northern German States. Offending Britain would be a small problem; the biggest problem would be cutting off the financial resources of British capitalists.
Historically, after Prussia annexed the Northern German states, it had already undergone considerable industrial development and joined the free trade system, so it did not fear British competition at that time.
Things were different now. If the Prussian government dared to join the free trade system at this time, its domestic industries would die in their infancy.
There was no way around it. In this era, the Kingdom of Prussia had no highly competitive core industries. Its industry was completely dependent on copying the British, or rather, the whole world was copying the British.
One reason the Prussian government opposed Austria was the fear that once Austria controlled the Southern German States, it would raise import duties on Prussian goods and use administrative means to drive them directly out of the market.
This was not only a possibility, but a certainty. For the industrializing Kingdom of Prussia, the lack of sufficient markets had obvious consequences.
On the question of Northern Germany, the British government could not compromise at all, or Prime Minister George would have to resign early, possibly with a free ticket to heaven.
This was one reason why the British wanted to divide Germany into three parts. The interests of the domestic capitalists influenced the actions of the British government.
As for the argument that the British had many colonies and large markets, that was bullshit. At that time, most colonial markets were undeveloped; the main markets were still in mainland Europe.
The risks of overseas trade were much greater than those of local trade. Besides, what kind of capitalist would complain about making too much money?
Southern Germany was different. Bavaria was the textile center of Germany. In this era, textiles were Britain’s biggest export. There was an element of eliminating competitors behind Britain’s actions of not forcing Austria to cough up the Kingdom of Bavaria.
By the mid-19th century, international politics was no longer limited to the political and military spheres. The influence of economics was growing, especially in capital-rich countries like Britain.
……
Austria’s counterattack was both within and beyond the expectations of the British government. Originally, the British government thought that Austria would intimidate and induce the Prussian government, but they did not expect the Austrian government to go all out.
Of course, the effect of this big move was tremendous. The Prussian government expressed its attitude subtly — it no longer dared to take a risk.
Reality told the British that sometimes national interests could not be fully considered. The personal interests of high-level government officials could also determine a country’s policy.
Once the position of Napoleon III was determined, the Austrians took advantage of the loophole in the intervention alliance and were able to retaliate ruthlessly.
“The situation has changed. The Prussian government is threatened by Austria and plans to withdraw. If we don’t find a way to prevent this, I’m afraid it won’t be long before the Three Northern Courts Alliance reappears in Europe,” Prime Minister George Hamilton-Gordon said seriously.
The Russo-Austrian alliance had not yet dissolved. If it were to become a Russo-Austrian-Prussian alliance again, nothing more needed to be said, they would have to reduce their influence to the British Isles.
Home Secretary Henry thought for a moment and said, “Prime Minister, I’m afraid the Prussians haven’t made up their minds yet, otherwise they’d be taking military action to annex Northern Germany at this time instead of communicating with us.
We can’t do anything about Russia and Austria, but we can still deal with the Prussians. A month’s blockade of the North Sea by the Royal Navy would cause an economic crisis in the Kingdom of Prussia. They cannot ignore the consequences.
Even if Prussia were to ally with Austria to divide the German states, that would not mean that all of Northern Germany would belong to them. I am afraid that many states would not give them a chance to act and would instead throw themselves directly into Austria’s arms.
In this situation, the Prussian government must consider that this expansion does not eliminate the crisis but only delays it.
With Russia to the east, France to the west, Austria to the south, and the remaining side surrounded by the sea, the geographical location of the Kingdom of Prussia is simply terrible.
In this they are similar to Austria, both squeezed in the middle by France and Russia. The difference is that Austria can develop in Italy and the Balkans, while Prussia can only colonize overseas.
This is probably the reason why Frederick William IV did not dare to make a decision. Without our consent, they can only be trapped at home, watching the other countries grow stronger and stronger.”
This was the main reason for the collapse of the Three Northern Courts Alliance. The alliance could not bring Prussia greater benefits. To pursue industrialization, they relied on overseas markets, so they had to maintain good relations with Great Britain.
After hesitating for a moment, George Hamilton-Gordon made a decision: “Tell Thomas that the probing plan has failed. Activate the second plan.”
This was the ideal plan, but not the only one. The British government did not think that everyone else was a fool and, of course, prepared contingency plans.
The reason the British chose this unreliable plan was simple: the cost of implementation was low and the benefits were high!
Complete success would be perfect, of course, while failure would mean they had lost nothing, so why not give it a try?
Had they really failed?
Of course not!
The British drove a wedge between Russia and Austria, worsened Prussian-Austrian relations, provoked the French, and damaged Austria’s relations with other European countries.
What did it cost to the British? By simply having the Foreign Secretary work more diligently and by balancing Austria strategically, they achieved a lot.
Due to the deterioration of the diplomatic situation, Austria would have to repair its international relations for a long time to come. After all, the annexation of the Southern German States this time irritated the sensitive nerves of the other powers.
……
Paris
The Prussian government withdrew from the intervention alliance, and the British plan naturally changed as well. Negotiations resumed.
Thomas suggested again: “Gentlemen, considering the stability of the European continent, there must be a buffer between the great powers. I propose that Baden, Hanover, Hamburg, Bremen... and other German states form a new country.
Considering the actual situation, the Kingdom of Prussia can exchange land with this newborn country and leave enough buffer space between Prussia and France and France and Austria.”
The proposals of this meeting were much more reliable, at least that was what Metternich thought. Except for the Grand Duchy of Baden, the British didn’t bring up any other states in Southern Germany.
In Metternich’s opinion, paying the price of the Grand Duchy of Baden was also worth considering to maintain a certain buffer with France and to gain recognition from all sides.
While Metternich was considering it, the French representative, Auvergne, was the first to support it: “What Mr. Thomas proposes has merit. It is necessary to leave a buffer between the great powers for the sake of peace and stability on the European continent.”
The reason, of course, was that it was beneficial to everyone’s strategic security. The French now had neither the dominating power to conquer the world nor the strength to fight alone.
Since they could not go on a conquest, it was necessary to avoid conflicts with the great powers as much as possible. As one of the interest groups, a stable European continent was in the interest of Britain and France.
If the home country was unstable, even if colonies were developed overseas, one would not feel comfortable, right? Don’t look at how often the British provoked contradictions between European countries. What they wanted most was a stable Europe.
Of course, this kind of stability had to be based on the situation where the powers of different countries were balanced. The mutual restraint of the European countries at that time made it impossible for any one country to dominate, so stability was necessary.
In addition, this new country led by the British would inevitably lean toward them politically, thus increasing their voice on the European continent.
At the same time, it retained its market in the German lands, allowing the government to reap a wave of gratitude from the capitalists, which was simply a win-win situation.
……
Karl Nesselrode was also somewhat eager to give his support, but seeing that Metternich had not expressed his position, and considering that Austria's interests were at stake in places stipulated in the treaty, he also did not dare to give his support prematurely.
There was nothing strange in this. Russia’s current strategy was to march south to Constantinople, and they could not be bothered with Europe for the time being. A stable Europe was what they needed as well.
Metternich thought for a while and said, “This question concerns the Grand Duchy of Baden and the Palatinate Province of Bavaria. We must consider this question carefully.”
Seeing that the Austrians had no objections either, the Prussian representative, Rottluff, could not hold back. He knew that if they did not come out now to fight for their interests, they would suffer greatly.
“No, the Rhineland is Prussia’s most important industrial region. We can’t give it up like this!”
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