Chapter 221: John Bulls Diplomatic Means
Palace of Versailles
British Foreign Secretary Thomas said to Napoleon III: “Your Majesty, the Russo-Austrian alliance is too great a threat to us. Since the outbreak of the Crimean War, Russia would have collapsed long ago without Austria’s support.
Now an opportunity arose. Austria wanted to unite the German territories, which Russia would certainly oppose.
Based on the current situation, the Austrian government made concessions and supported Russia’s acquisition of Constantinople in exchange for Russian support for the annexation of Southern Germany.
Problems arose during the implementation of this seemingly mutually beneficial deal. Russia failed to take Constantinople, while Austria swallowed Southern Germany in one gulp.
Many in the Russian government hoped that Austria’s plans would not succeed, so their support for Austria would inevitably be limited.
Faced with the combined diplomatic pressure of all European countries, the Austrian government naturally could not withstand the pressure. They had already gotten the short end of the stick in this deal, and the discovery of Russia’s lack of effort would certainly upset Austria.
We can exploit this by offering to recognize their annexation of Southern Germany in exchange for Austria’s renunciation of the Russo-Austrian alliance. The probability of success is extremely high.”
The existence of the Russo-Austrian alliance severely threatened the core interests of Britain and France in the struggle for dominance of the European continent.
From the end of the Napoleonic Wars to the present day, Russia, having achieved European hegemony, has been unable to expand abroad. It wasn’t only because of the restrictions imposed by the Vienna System, but also because the diplomatic means used by the Russian government were not up to standard, and they were resisted by everyone’s combined efforts.
The situation is different now with the cooperation between Austria and Russia, whereas before Britain and France could look down on Russian diplomacy, now they could not ignore Austria’s diplomatic skills.
Metternich was hailed as the “Prime Minister of Europe” during this period. His diplomatic skills were experienced firsthand by Britain.
Although Austria was the weakest of the four Great Powers, it dominated the politics of continental Europe for thirty years through diplomacy alone.
“Suppressing France, expelling Great Britain, blocking Russia” is the culmination of the achievements of the Vienna System. By exploiting conflicts between countries, Metternich achieved his strategic goals by using weakness to control strength.
If Russian-Austrian strategic alignment and complementarity deepen through continued cooperation, it would fatally affect the core interests of Britain and France.
Napoleon III shook his head. “Mr. Thomas, we understand the Russo-Austrian threat and are happy to sabotage that partnership.
But your proposed plans have too low a success rate. That old fox Metternich is not easily fooled! I doubt he would fall into a trap so easily!”
The Franco-Austrian deal aside, splitting the Russo-Austrian alliance requires more reliable plans than mere speculation that Russia might resentfully reduce Austrian support and then casually sabotage Austria diplomatically.
They were all playing a political game. Dealing with international affairs requires consideration of benefits. As long as the benefits are reasonable, personal feelings can be suppressed.
Thomas calmly said, “Your Majesty, the Russian-Austrian alliance is based on mutual interests. Austria refuses to break the alliance with Russia just because the benefits are insufficient.
If Austria is willing to break off relations with Russia, we can support their annexation not only of Southern Germany but also of Central Germany, even of the present Austrian-occupied Ottoman territories.
If Austria refuses to give up Russo-Austrian relations, then we must prepare for the worst and intervene directly to limit Austria’s strength.
We will send 100,000 troops, and France will send 200,000 troops. Belgium, the Netherlands, Portugal, Switzerland, Sardinia, and Spain will contribute 50,000 each. In addition, Prussia will also be sending 300,000 troops to form an intervention army to force Austria to stop expanding.
One must admit that the British were ruthless. Perhaps the benefits Britain could offer are even greater than what the Russo-Austrian alliance could achieve.
Napoleon III was in deep thought. Strategically, the Russo-Austrian alliance was no less a threat than the Austrian unification of Germany.
For the sake of world hegemony, Britain wanted to strike at its greatest rival, and of course, promise anything to achieve it.
Austria’s rear would be unstable after offending Russia, and French containment would be an obstacle to Austrian domination of mainland Europe anyway.
But for the French, it is a different matter. It is very important to break the Russian-Austrian alliance, but it is equally important to suppress the emergence of new opponents.
If they finally succeed in suppressing the Russians, only to see the Austrians regain the upper hand, won’t they have worked in vain?
The British want continental balance; as long as the balance is maintained, it doesn’t matter who is stronger or weaker. Finally, Austria’s geographical location makes it impossible for it to challenge the naval power, and it poses the least threat among the great powers.
It’s a different story for France. Napoleon III aspires to dominate the continent, and he cannot tolerate the emergence of a Southern European giant.
The power gap between Austria and France was not substantial, and even with the current Austrian Empire, Napoleon III was not confident that he could suppress it, let alone a stronger Austria.
Forgetting the secret agreement between France and Austria, he concentrates on preventing Austria from becoming too powerful. Effective measures must be taken to limit its development.
After a while, Napoleon III shook his head. “Mr. Thomas, your plans are too unreliable. What if Austria reneges after we recognize their expansion?
The Russo-Austrian alliance could be shattered, and of course, it could be rebuilt. In the end, it comes down to interests.
Your European balance of power plan has essentially stifled Austria’s development. To advance, they will inevitably join forces with Russia sooner or later.
If I were Nicholas I, the annexation of the Ottoman Empire would make the Austrian unification of Germany acceptable.
After German unification, Austria would threaten France first. Russia could easily start a Franco-Austrian war and reap the benefits.
Britain could also stay on the sidelines and watch the changing circumstances. Mr. Thomas, do you think I’m that easily fooled?”
Sensing murderous intent in Napoleon III’s eyes, Thomas hastily remedied the situation, “Your Majesty is overthinking this. Nicholas I lacks your wisdom.
Nor will we stand idly by while Austria expands. No European country wants to see the emergence of a Central European hegemon.
Austria had no chance of uniting the German territories, at least not if Prussia had anything to say about it.
Although Austria appears militarily formidable now, once war breaks out, as long as it’s not on their home turf, supplying a million troops would drain them to death.”
Napoleon III stated firmly, “Mr. Thomas, however you phrase it, France cannot allow Austria to grow stronger just to dissolve the Russian-Austrian alliance!”
Having said this, Napoleon III immediately realized the implications. The British had no intention of allowing the Austrians to rise, and were only provoking him!
Recognizing their true motives, Napoleon III looked at Thomas with undisguised disgust.
Noticing the change in Napoleon III’s complexion, Thomas casually remarked, “Your Majesty, since France intends to limit Austria’s growth, we, as allies, will naturally coordinate with French actions.
For all righteous people, Austria’s aggressive war to annex the German states was intolerable.
I propose that our two countries immediately join hands to thwart Austria’s ambitions by permanently dividing Germany and creating an independent country out of the regions excluding Prussia and Austria, thus eliminating a European source of war.”
Predictably, Napoleon III knew this was Britain’s true goal, but was incredulous.
John Bull’s diplomatic machinations were too damn good! His late uncle Napoleon Bonaparte once swept across Europe invincible until he fell to British diplomatic wiles.
Britain acquiesced to Austrian dominance of the Vienna System only because it needed Austria’s help in stabilizing Europe amid global colonial expansion and could not at the time personally intervene in continental affairs.
When they could, they immediately returned to cause trouble, as evidenced by the current involvement in Crimea and the intervention in German unification, which was entirely orchestrated by the British.
Even now, when it’s clear that the British want to contain Austria’s growth, it has become a situation where France is the one who wants to contain Austria’s development. The task of fostering enmity has been successfully passed on to the French.
Refusal? In his heart, Napoleon III desperately wanted to refuse, but he had no other choice.
Reason tells him that if France does not step forward to restrain Austria, Britain will allow a possible Austrian rise to sever Russian-Austrian relations.
This is a conspiracy, and Napoleon III cannot help but fall into it. Now that France has violated the agreement and blocked Austria’s path to expansion, how do you think Austria will react when it tries to expand in the future?
With one scheme, Austria was not only kept in check, but France was forced to restrain Austria, preventing any alliance between them, while forcing French dependence on Britain internationally.
Napoleon III scoffed, “Mr. Thomas, isn’t that your real goal? But do you think that Austria is an easy target? Where is the intervention of coalition forces from different countries?
Without military intervention, threats alone are unlikely to force Austria to make concessions. I don’t think France is capable of that.”
Is the coalition that easy to organize? Before the plan is revealed, it’s no problem to trick Prussia into joining. Portugal, Belgium, the Netherlands, and the Kingdom of Sardinia have always looked up to the British, and getting them to send troops is not difficult.
Why would neutral Switzerland needlessly offend neighboring Austria? The Spanish had no interest in whether Austria grew or not. Why should they wade into this quagmire?
Napoleon III did not want to be the scapegoat here. If Austria does not agree and war breaks out, where can he go to seek redress?
There are many deaths in war. Normally, Napoleon III would not be afraid, but to go to war with Russia and then Austria would be insane.
Thomas said confidently, “Your Majesty, please be assured that the matter of the intervention army is settled.
Switzerland, the Netherlands, and Belgium will be rewarded with territorial gains in some parts of the German territories, while Spain and Portugal will be rewarded with overseas colonies.
As long as our two countries are united, they will not dare to reject our goodwill.
Once Austria decides to go to war, the Royal Navy will blockade the Adriatic Sea, cutting off its overseas trade routes.
Under these circumstances, I believe the likelihood of the Austrian government capitulating is very high. The mere hint of organized intervention would force them to compromise.
Moreover, we don’t intend to be ruthless. For example, regarding the Kingdom of Bavaria, which Austria has already occupied, we can allow them to annex it.
The British government only wants to break up the Russian-Austrian alliance, not strengthen it. Therefore, military intervention is only a worst-case scenario.
If we take military action, Your Majesty, how do you think the Russians will react?
Will they take the risk of joining Austria in attacking the Kingdom of Prussia, or will they confront us in the Near East while verbally supporting Austria?”
Listening to Thomas’ explanation, Napoleon III felt only endless conspiracies. The British conspiracies tightly encompassed almost all European countries.
Almost all European countries have been forced to take sides, except for Denmark and Sweden in Northern Europe, which are too close to Russia and too difficult to win over.
Even if the Russo-Austrian alliance were to continue, most European countries would oppose it, such is the power that naval supremacy confers.
The collaboration of the world’s first and second naval powers, along with the colonial nations of Portugal, Spain, and the Netherlands, left little choice.
Belgium is geographically bound to ally itself with either England or France; Sardinia is out for revenge against Austria; Switzerland has historical grievances with the Habsburgs and cannot afford to offend either England or France.
Napoleon III coldly replied, “In that case, this plan can be proposed jointly by our two countries. Mr. Thomas can still visit Russia. As long as Russia’s attitude is not firm, the plan will succeed.”
Thomas remarked impassively, “Has Your Majesty forgotten that the plan to divide Germany originated in Russia? I’m sure the look on the faces of the Austrians will be fascinating when they learn of this.”
Napoleon III replied, “It is essential that Prussia does not know our further plans, otherwise they might ally themselves with Austria to carve up Germany.
Until then, all plans are mere fantasies. With the double rise of Prussia and Austria, the German interests of your country are endangered, while at the same time, we are confronted with increased competition.”
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