Chapter 215: Everyone Has Their Own Plans
Saint Petersburg
The Russian government found itself in a difficult position. Austria was expanding too fast and they had to find a way to contain it.
However, the Russo-Austrian alliance could not be broken. Austria was the Russian government’s only notable ally on the European continent. They could not afford to lose them.
At present, Austria had not exceeded the scope of the treaty of expansion, so they couldn’t even find an excuse to interfere.
It had nothing to do with reputation. As long as it suited their interests, the Russian government did not mind selling out its allies.
Current interests were not enough to make the Tsar sell out his ally. Even if Britain and France abandoned the Ottoman Empire, the Russian government could not possibly tear up the Russo-Austrian alliance treaty.
The reason was simple. The Near East War was a wake-up call for the Russian government, making them understand that they were not as powerful as they thought they were. Since they were not strong enough, they needed allies.
Looking around the world, countries qualified to be allies of Russia were few and far between. Going through them one by one, Austria, their traditional ally, still seemed the most reliable.
Spain was internally unstable, and Isabella II was still preoccupied with internal struggles and unable to intervene in continental European affairs. Nicholas I would not want such an ally even if it were given to him.
As for Britain and France, they were powerful, but they were now at war with them. How could they become allies when they were currently enemies?
Looking at the remaining options, there was only the Kingdom of Prussia, a quasi-great power. Aside from the previous conflicts between the two sides, it was obvious that the Russians would suffer if they allied with the Kingdom of Prussia.
When help was needed, Prussia would be powerless; on the other hand, Russia would have to constantly support Prussia.
Alliances were based on common interests. If mutual needs could not be met, then there was no basis for even discussing an alliance. This was why the Northern Three Courts System had collapsed.
Foreign Minister Karl Nesselrode said anxiously: “Your Majesty, the calls for German unification are very loud. Bavarian nationalism is not even the most fanatical, yet they have supported Austria’s war for unification with actual actions.
The other states are probably not much better. Except for the Kingdom of Prussia, the other states may be persuaded by the Austrians to surrender by political means.
Even the Prussians are now frightened and do not dare to intervene militarily in this conflict. The German unification war we had envisioned has now become an Austrian military parade.
If we do not intervene, Britain and France may not be able to stop Austria’s subsequent actions.
Even if they were allies, they had to be careful. Austria’s rapid development was not good for Russia either.
Finance Minister Fyodor Vronchenko disagreed: “Your Majesty, we cannot directly intervene in this German unification war. The Russo-Austrian secret treaty has already defined the spheres of influence of the two countries. We cannot violate the treaty before Austria has crossed the agreed boundaries.
The Russian Empire’s enemies are Britain, France, and the Ottoman Empire. If we rashly intervene in this war, it will only benefit our enemies. Without Austria’s support, we will not be able to continue the Near East War.
The threat posed by Austria exists only potentially, still assuming they unite Germany. Currently, the chances of them unifying Germany are still very small, at least the Kingdom of Prussia has not yet succumbed.
Moreover, this threat is not directed at us alone. The ones who should be most worried now are the French. Austria’s unification of Germany is the greatest threat to them.
Geopolitics determines each country’s strategic threats. With the British Isles isolated from continental Europe, Britain’s threats could only come from the sea. After German unification, France would be the most directly affected, followed by Russia.
“No, you misunderstand, Mr. Vronchenko. There is no contradiction between intervening in this war and upholding the alliance. As long as we help the Austrians to get the land that was previously agreed upon, it is not a violation of the alliance.
The British and French can be seen as the villains in this matter. We don't have to come into direct conflict with Austria.” Karl Nesselrode explained.
Fyodor Vronchenko asked uncertainly: “Are you saying that Germany should be divided, that the road to German unification should be cut off?”
Karl Nesselrode replied in the affirmative: “That is right. The facts have already proved that if Germany is divided after the awakening of nationalism, it will sooner or later reunite.
It’s still possible to stop it now. If we wait any longer, the Kingdom of Prussia will also be influenced by public opinion, and it will be difficult for us to stop them from unifying by then!”
“What specific plans do you have?” Nicholas I asked with interest.
Karl Nesselrode analyzed: “Your Majesty, this plan also requires the efforts of Great Britain and France, and it cannot be proposed by us, as it will affect the relations between Russia and Austria.
According to the present situation, Austria’s acquisition of Southern Germany should not be an issue. If Britain and France are willing to play the villain, let them do so.
Prussia may expand into Northern Germany. Schleswig and Holstein can be ceded to Denmark, while the Western States can merge with Belgium and the Netherlands.
Of course, we do not care what happens to the West German states. Let the British have a headache with that instead. Whether it’s given to Prussia or its allies Belgium and the Netherlands, or even independence, it doesn’t matter.
Unless these economically developed regions are annexed by Austria, their strength will not skyrocket. With Germany divided, Austria’s path to expansion would be blocked. They would only be able to seek overseas colonies.
This would inevitably lead to conflict with Britain and France. After sharing common enemies, the future Russo-Austrian alliance relations could still have hopes of becoming closer.”
A permanent solution to the problem was indeed the best choice. As long as Germany was completely divided, no country on the European continent could threaten the security of the Russian Empire.
There was still no sign of any country possessing the power to threaten Russia. Even France, the country most feared by the Russian government at present, was no longer as terrifying as it had been during the Napoleonic era.
……
Paris
The situation was changing too fast. Napoleon III’s plan to sit on the sidelines had failed before it even began.
All the states in Germany had become ostriches as if the Bavarian government had committed monstrous, unforgivable sins, and it was the wish of the people that Austria should overthrow its rule.
Well, intelligence from Bavaria forced Napoleon III to admit that Austria’s actions this time were the will of the masses.
This meant that Austria’s annexation of Bavaria would be very easy. It was an armed parade from start to finish, with total casualties on both sides not exceeding three figures. With excellent support from the people, there will be no problem ruling there in the future.
Napoleon III cursed: “Everyone already knows the news from Germany. The situation is completely out of control. If we don’t act soon, Austria may be able to rebuild that damn Holy Roman Empire.
If you do not want to see the monster that has plagued France for hundreds of years come back to life, then think of a way to strangle them now!”
Interior Minister Persigny suggested: “Your Majesty, given the current situation, we must prepare for armed intervention. Given the situation in Germany, these states will not be our allies.
Austria’s strength is considerable. To be on the safe side, it would be best if we could cooperate with Great Britain and Russia. The most important thing now is to coordinate diplomatic relations to ensure that the positions of the great powers are aligned.”
Persigny was Napoleon III’s strategist, personally formulating plans including the monarchy’s restoration. He may not have been good at governing the country, but he was a master of power politics.
He persuaded Napoleon III not to rush into this war, but when it came out of his mouth, it became a diplomatic necessity.
He also subtly reminded Napoleon III that the main force of France was still on the Near East front and that the domestic military strength was weak. Sending a small number of troops would only contribute to the enemy’s achievements.
There was no alternative; the universal conscription of the Napoleonic era was already a thing of the past. At present, France’s mobilization speed could not yet match Prussia’s.
Without enough troops, it would be a joke to intervene with military force, wouldn’t it?
Napoleon III asked with concern: “How long will it take for us to have enough troops to intervene in this war?”
The Minister of War, Jacques Leroy de Saint-Arnaud, thought for a moment and said: “Your Majesty, because of the Near East War, our standing army has exceeded 800,000 men, and a large number of reserves have been conscripted.
There are 280,000 troops on the Crimean Peninsula, 200,000 in Constantinople, 154,000 in overseas colonies, and less than 170,000 troops domestically.
Now we can mobilize 150,000 youths to join the army every month. These recruits require at least three months of training before they can be sent to the battlefield.
If we want to intervene in this war alone, it will take at least half a year before we have enough troops.”
Napoleon III completely abandoned the idea of unilateral intervention. This was the legacy of the July Monarchy. During the reign of Louis Philippe I, France’s standing army typically numbered no more than 200,000 men, and the system of universal conscription was abandoned.
After Napoleon III came to power, the army was expanded to 800,000 men, and there were not so many reserves that could be called up directly.
France has no shortage of young people of military age, but these people cannot go to the battlefield just by picking up weapons. They have to be trained.
Three months of basic training could only produce cannon fodder among cannon fodder, with pitifully low combat skills. Napoleon III did not dare to send such an unreliable army into battle.
And it was not the case that France’s ability to mobilize was really poor. The same was true of other countries during this period. Before Franz’s military reforms, Austria’s mobilization capability was about the same as France’s.
In this era, the countries that could quickly mobilize 800,000 troops were Russia, France, and Austria. Of course, many countries could gather enough people, but their combat effectiveness couldn’t be guaranteed.
Recognizing the crux of the situation through a minor detail, Napoleon III quickly concluded that military intervention would likely prove impractical this time around.
Unless, of course, Austria intended to unify Germany and thoroughly annoy everyone in the process. Britain, France, and Russia would have to withdraw their frontline troops. Otherwise, no one would have enough military forces to intervene at this time.
His judgment was not mistaken. Britain was the first to abandon plans for military intervention, precisely because the British Army could not produce an operational force of sufficient size.
……
While all the countries were preparing, Franz was also busy. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs began a public relations campaign throughout the European continent.
Even Switzerland, which had a long-standing feud with the Habsburgs, was not spared. Hatred was a thing of the past. Since the announcement of permanent neutrality at the Congress of Vienna in 1815, relations between the two countries had normalized.
Of course, this was not the focus of Austria’s public relations. It was just a routine matter of expressing its attitude to the Swiss government.
Unless Switzerland was willing to abandon its neutral position, it would not participate in this war, and in fact, it could not participate.
At that time, Switzerland was not yet the developed country of later generations. As a mountainous country, it was naturally poor before industrialization was complete.
Aside from tricking the states in Germany, the biggest public relations target was the French. The Russians could not be counted, as they had been taken care of in advance, and were now just keeping the lines of communication open.
It wasn’t that Franz was unwilling to work on Britain, the problem was that John Bull was too cunning and Austria had no interests to buy them off.
On the other hand, there were common interests with the French, and a certain price could be paid to buy them over. Since it would be painful for Franz to cut off his flesh, he could only be bold with other people’s resources.
This chapt𝒆r is updated by free(w)ebnovel(.)com