Chapter 214: Shifting the Blame
The negotiations were still at an impasse, but the gates of Munich had already been opened. At this point, Maximilian II was no longer in control of the situation.
From the beginning of the negotiations, everyone knew that there would be a change of ownership. Jonas had no obligation to keep it a secret, and now everyone in the city knows that Maximilian II is preparing to exchange territory with Austria.
Since this was the case, there was no pressure on the people to pledge allegiance to their new master. The exchange of territories was not uncommon in European history, so this was not a shocking new development.
However, the circumstances this time were nevertheless special. The Bavarian royal family was in a pretty sorry state, having lost all their bargaining chips. The only thing they could still rely on was legal justification.
Initially, most Bavarians felt some hesitation in their hearts. After all, Maximilian II hadn’t committed any heinous crimes. To abandon him like that seemed somewhat unreasonable.
However, when the news of the territory exchange came out, everyone’s mental obstacles disappeared. It was not that they wanted to betray the king, but that the king himself wanted to leave, which had nothing to do with them.
Everyone’s conscience was now clear. As long as Austria did not mistreat the Bavarian royal family, people felt they had done right by Maximilian II.
……
Baden
As a close ally of Bavaria, the Baden government was the first to know what was happening in their neighboring country. The Baden government was stunned - this was not how things were supposed to be. During the war, the local governments declared “neutrality”, and their military soon followed suit, declaring “neutrality” as well.
Prince Frederick asked: “What should we do now? The Bavarians aren’t resisting at all. The Austrians only had to stage an armed parade to reach the gates of Munich.
From the current situation, it seems that the Bavarians have abandoned their government. And Munich cannot hold out much longer. The Kingdom of Bavaria will collapse before reinforcements arrive.”
Let alone waiting for reinforcements to come, there was no sign reinforcements would come at all! Prussia was currently working on organizing a coalition force from the various German states, while Britain and France were also calling on nations to intervene militarily in this conflict.
But all this would take time. There are so many small states in Germany. Even if they did it quickly, it would still take a month or two to organize the coalition forces.
Who would have expected Bavaria to be so spineless? After all, it was still the third-largest state in Germany. Even if they couldn’t beat the Austrians, they should have held out for a while longer, or even resorted to guerrilla tactics if necessary!
At the time, Prince Frederick didn’t know that the two sides had already reached a compromise and that Maximilian II was currently negotiating terms with Austria.
Foreign Minister Nikolaus analyzed: “Your Highness, the problem for Bavaria is that they have lost the hearts of their people. No matter how hard the government tries, it’s useless.
It seems that we are still underestimating the position of unification in the hearts of the people. The Bavarians regard this war as a war for national unification.
Instead of saying that the Austrian forces fought their way into Munich, it would be more accurate to say that the Bavarians invited them into Munich.
Now our problems have multiplied. If our people have the same attitude as the Bavarians, it would be far too risky to intervene in this war.”
Nikolaus was afraid, and so were many others. What if the people of Baden felt the same way? If they forcibly intervened in this war, would the people of Baden rebel?
Even if they didn’t openly revolt, they might emulate the Bavarians by remaining “neutral” during the fighting. This would still spell doom for the Baden government.
Prime Minister Waltz added: “Your Highness, this situation is likely to occur. Most domestic public opinion is against sending troops to rescue Bavaria.”
Prince Frederick fell silent. He understood the truth that “if the lips are gone, the teeth will be cold”, but now the risk of intervening in the war was too great, and they might end up getting into trouble themselves.
After a moment’s pause, he said slowly, “Forget it, let’s stay neutral in this war!”
……
It was not only the Grand Duchy of Baden that made this choice. Many of the frightened small German states also chose to remain neutral.
It seems that at this moment, everyone has become a supporter of public opinion. Austria’s political offensive has begun to take effect.
As more and more small states declared neutrality, the unborn German Confederation Army died in the womb prematurely.
Berlin
As more and more states declared neutrality, the pressure on the Prussian government increased. At least 500,000 Austrian troops had already gathered in the Prussian-Austrian border area, and this number was still growing.
Whether these troops are capable of fighting remains unknown, but the Prussian government does not dare to make a move. With such numbers, who would dare be complacent?
What if the moment they send troops to rescue Bavaria, those troops invade their homeland? Even if these troops were useless, their sheer numbers could still overwhelm Prussia.
The Kingdom of Prussia has limited strength. It was impossible to mobilize millions of troops like the Austrian government.
Even if they worked themselves to the bone, they could only deal with one Austrian army at most. There would be no way to deal with another.
Whether troops were sent from their homeland or from the Kingdom of Bavaria, Austria would have no problem dealing with them.
Now that they are in the age of firearms, even if they want to take risks, they can’t. As long as their logistical support was cut off, even the strongest army would be useless.
In addition to the military threats, the more vexing problem was political. The actions of the Bavarian people also frightened the Prussian government.
While Frederick William IV may have had confidence in his armed forces, believing that they would not emulate the Bavarian army by remaining neutral without firing a shot, he had no confidence in the civilian population.
The security of the armed forces is rooted in the fact that Prussia is a “military state,” a treatment that no other country can match.
The civilians were different. Don’t look at how future generations praise the Kingdom of Prussia. In truth, they were impoverished because of their military.
The current economic situation in Prussia was not good. To maintain the huge military expenditures, the government has to increase the burden on the people.
Coupled with the exploitation of the Junker nobility, life was not easy for ordinary Prussians during this time. Historically, this kind of hardship continued until after the Franco-Prussian War, when war reparations from France finally allowed them to escape this predicament.
Frederick William IV suppressed his anger and said, “What shall we do now? These free cities have long since declared their neutrality. Now Baden, Hanover, and Württemberg have also declared neutrality. Felix is about to visit Saxony, and unless something unexpected happens, Saxony will soon declare neutrality as well.
The remaining small states are not worth mentioning in terms of strength. If we want to continue organizing an intervention army, I'm afraid we can only rely on ourselves.”
There are many states in Germany, but few of them have real strength. Except for those few that have some strength, the rest of the small states cannot even muster an army of 50,000 men.
Without these state armies as cannon fodder, Prussia would not dare to fight Austria. The loss of one hundred and eighty thousand troops would cripple them.
The reason the Kingdom of Prussia maintains such a large active army is to ensure the quality of its soldiers, as it cannot compete with others in quantity.
Prime Minister Joseph von Radowitz advised: “Your Majesty, the current situation is unclear, and we cannot act rashly. Although Austria is corrupt, its military strength has not diminished.
According to our intelligence, Austria has already mobilized one million reservists. Together with their 500,000 active troops, they have become the largest army in Europe.
With our current strength, we can no longer intervene in this war. It would be better to observe the situation for now and see how the other European countries react!”
Plans quickly changed. If Austria had not carried out full national mobilization, the Kingdom of Prussia, together with the German states, might still have had the strength to intervene in this war.
The present situation is obvious. The small states, either under pressure from public opinion or intimidated by Austria’s strength, have withdrawn.
The coalition can no longer be organized. To fight against Austria alone, relying only on Prussia’s 200,000 troops, Joseph von Radowitz had absolutely no expectations.
Even with full national mobilization, it would still be the same. Prussia cannot survive a war of attrition. One defeat would be her end as well. While Austria might not have the strength to swallow Prussia, the dismantling of the Kingdom of Prussia was quite possible.
After all, the Kingdom of Prussia was not without its flaws. Through the three instances of carving up Poland alone, they gained 141,100 square kilometers of land or 47% of Prussia’s total territory.
This means that there is still a large Polish population in Prussia. Although these people are mostly assimilated, and it would not take long for them to be completely absorbed under normal circumstances, this assumes that there are no external forces.
Once the Kingdom of Prussia was defeated in the war and Austria forcibly divided Prussia, reunification would become difficult. With the odds of success too low and the risks too high, Prime Minister Joseph von Radowitz did not want to take this gamble.
Foreign Minister Manteuffel suggested: “Your Majesty, Metternich is about to visit Berlin. Let’s hear what Austria has to say before we make a decision. If the conditions are right, it is not out of the question to shake hands with them.”
In the end, relations between countries come down to interests. Prussia opposed Austria’s annexation of Bavaria because of its interests. If the interests are aligned, then selling Bavaria is not out of the question.
Manteuffel supported the idea of dividing the country into North and South Germany. He did not mind an exchange of interests with Austria. Of course, this did not mean that he did not want Prussia to unify Germany.
The main reason is that the strength of the Kingdom of Prussia is limited. Everyone has ambitions for the unification of Germany, but no one believes that it can be achieved.
Before Bismarck came to power, the Prussian government was not mentally prepared for the unification of Germany.
Even after winning three wars, most still had doubts about unifying Germany.
If it weren’t for Bismarck’s strong persistence and political means, which tricked many small states into joining together and achieving nominal unity, the magnificent German Empire would not have been born in later generations.
After some hesitation, Frederick William IV sent an apology to the Kingdom of Bavaria. It was not that he was unwilling to help, but his strength would not allow it.
“In that case, we will remain silent for the time being. The mobilization of domestic troops cannot be stopped, and we must remain vigilant to prevent Austria from launching a sneak attack on us.
After Metternich arrives and we understand Austria’s conditions, we will make a decision.
Before that, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs should try to stabilize the small states as much as possible. Without them waving flags and shouting, we are politically very passive.
Gambling with the fate of the country also depends on the situation. There must be at least a 30-40% chance of success before they would place a bet. Frederick William IV is not a gambler and does not have the reckless abandon of a gambler that would make him blindly go all in.
After the high-level meeting ended, Frederick William IV immediately summoned the British, French, Russian, and Spanish ambassadors to inform the four great powers of Europe of the situation and to ask the four countries to send troops to intervene.
Undoubtedly, the Kingdom of Spain was already an empty shell by this time, maintaining its status as a great power only through the prestige of its ancestors. Currently preoccupied with internal conflicts, they were not enthusiastic about intervening in German affairs.
The ones who have influence are Britain, France, and Russia, or more specifically, France and Russia. Although Britain’s influence is considerable, its army is limited and does not have the strength to intervene in Germany.
However, the three countries of Britain, France, and Russia are currently engaged in a war that cannot be easily stopped. Both sides have invested heavily; whoever admits defeat will be in deep trouble.
Russia cannot give up Constantinople. This is the will of the entire Russian population. The Russian government cannot back down at this critical juncture.
Neither can Britain and France back down. Britain had already made concessions, regardless of how great the losses to their interests were, and they had a change of leadership.
As for France, it goes without saying that if Napoleon III dared to admit defeat, his throne would be unstable, or rather, his throne was always somewhat unstable to begin with. He started this war precisely to divert domestic tensions.
Except for the Spanish ambassador, who explicitly refused to send troops, the ambassadors of the three nations did not answer, as they had to wait for decisions from their home countries.
London
The George Cabinet held another Cabinet meeting on the problems in Germany.
Foreign Secretary Thomas said: “Gentlemen, the situation in Germany has changed. The Kingdom of Bavaria has fallen without resistance. In this war, both Bavarian civilians and soldiers have chosen to remain indifferent spectators.
It seems for this fight against Austria, it’s probably just that fool Maximilian II and his foolish cabinet.
Affected by this, most of the German states in Germany have chosen neutrality because public opinion supports German unification and these state governments could not dare to take any risks.
Last night I received word from our ambassador in Berlin that the Prussian government has also backed down.
Our original plan was to use the strength of the German states in Germany to contain Austria, but now we can no longer do so.
If we do not take strong measures, the unification of Germany will be inevitable. The Austrians are launching a political offensive, and it is estimated that most of the German states will be forced by popular sentiment to join the Austrian-led Holy Roman Empire.”
Thomas looked down on Maximilian II’s behavior, and everyone agreed. For a king to reach such a point truly reflects his ability.
If the Kingdom of Bavaria put up even a little fight, even if it resisted the Austrian troops only for ten days or half a month, even if it lost battle after battle, everyone would be able to accept it.
It all comes down to the difference in strength. No one would criticize them for their lack of ability if they had resisted. It can be said that as long as they resisted, the German Confederation Army could have been organized.
But now everyone has given in. They were intimidated not only by Austria’s military power but even more by the behavior of the Bavarian people. Others lacked confidence and did not dare to go against the will of the people.
George Hamilton-Gordon thought for a moment and said: “It seems that we must join hands with the Russians. Relying only on our power and that of France, we can no longer force Austria to back down.
A united German Reich would be far too powerful. The Russians would not want to see such a monster either. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs should communicate with the Russians. To demonstrate our sincerity, we can temporarily halt our offensive operations in the Crimean Peninsula.”
“Prime Minister, if we stop our advance at this time, the advantages we have gained will be given up for nothing. As long as the Russians do not give up Constantinople, this war cannot end.
Unless we want to fight a defensive war along the Indus River against the Russians in India, we cannot retreat either,” reminded Secretary of State for War Edward Smith-Stanley.
Retreat is impossible. Whoever dares to compromise on this matter will be nailed to the pillar of traitors and spat upon by the public for life!
George Hamilton-Gordon said coldly: "This level of loss is still within our tolerance. Even if we cannot compromise with the Russians on Near East issues, our positions are still consistent in wanting to prevent the unification of Germany.
As long as the three of us remain united, the Austrians will have to make concessions. Once the Russians put pressure on Austria, can their relationship as allies continue?
Once Russian-Austrian relations break down, the subsequent war will be easier to fight. For now, the first thing to do is to appease the Russians and let them obstruct Germany’s path to unification.”
When it comes to diplomatic tactics, John Bull does not flinch. Even if they have to join hands with Russia to intervene in Germany’s war for unification, they will not fail to dig a large pit for Russia first.
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