Chapter 182: The Time of Trial Arrives
Franz disliked playing sinister tricks, but unfortunately, his strength doesn’t allow otherwise.
For example, right now, what was clearly a plot against the three nations of Britain, France, and Russia has somehow turned into a conspiracy.
The line between conspiracy and plot is often very thin, and there’s no definite answer to which is the strongest or most suitable; it depends on the situation.
What if someone told Nicholas I of Franz’s plans? What would happen?
The answer: Nothing would happen. Nicholas I would just laugh it off.
Countries were inherently mutually using each other. Some scheming was normal. Wanting intimate cooperation was foolish — it simply did not exist.
Mature politicians assess what allies have done, anticipate the consequences, weigh the pros and cons, and decide on the relationship between the two countries based on these considerations, rather than worrying about what the ally is thinking.
So, if you want to betray your teammate, you must do it skillfully. If you get betrayed instead because you lack the skills, don’t cry — there are plenty more days of being betrayed ahead!
Just like now, Franz was screwing Russia over, but as long as Austria fulfilled its obligations as an ally, it remains Russia’s most steadfast ally, and Russo-Austrian relations won’t be affected.
In fact, if Franz were to inform Nicholas I that Austria is sending troops to help, the Russians wouldn’t be surprised at all. Instead, there’s a higher likelihood of them being alarmed.
Expending more strength meant claiming more spoils. This was the Russo-Austrian alliance’s basis. Once profit distribution became imbalanced, the alliance would lose value.
The Russo-Austrian alliance is an equal treaty with no subordinate relationships. If Austria fulfills its ally obligations and takes on additional duties, the ultimate distribution of spoils naturally undergoes changes.
Russia did not need Austrian reinforcements for the current war in the Balkans. The Russian government is not particularly fond of expendable pawns. It would not exchange interests for reducing frontline casualties.
Strategically, if Austria attacked the Ottoman Empire, the optimal route was identical to Russia’s current one.
This is determined by logistics — transporting strategic supplies through the Danube River and entering Bulgaria from the downstream plains is much more favorable than navigating through the mountainous terrain of Bosnia and Serbia.
What decides the outcome of this war is not how much Ottoman territory was occupied, but whether Constantinople could be taken.
As long as the Russians capture Constantinople, the British and French navies will have to withdraw from the Black Sea Straits. Otherwise, if Russia blockaded the Bosporus, they would become turtles in a jar.
With control over the Black Sea, they can transport logistical supplies by sea, and with the combined strength of Russia and Austria, supporting a million-strong army in the Balkan Peninsula would not be a significant issue.
Unlike the current situation, where, no matter how hard the Russian forces try to deploy in the Balkans, they can deploy at most four to five hundred thousand troops. Any more would be a logistical burden. If Austrian forces were sent, this number would need to be reduced by at least a quarter.
The Russian expendable soldiers were famed as Europe’s cheapest army for a reason. Their logistical needs were the lowest among all great powers’ armies.
With backward equipment and few artillery in modern war, logistical pressures were also lower.
Does the Russian government lack soldiers?
If they lose several hundred thousand, it was not problem, they can easily replenish them with another several hundred thousand. If the Austrian army participates in capturing Constantinople, they can’t monopolize the Black Sea Straits.
National interests are very practical. Don’t expect allies to come with their own provisions to help without a specific purpose.
The Black Sea was small. Russia had long treated it as its domain, unwilling to let Austria take a share.
According to the current alliance, the Russians can gain the maximum benefit, and the cost is nothing more than the casualties of a group of expendable soldiers. The Russian government is not lacking in people anyway.
......
Metternich said: “Your Majesty, yesterday the Russian envoy to Vienna approached me. They intend to reinforce the Balkan Peninsula and hope that we can provide more war supplies.
My preliminary judgment is that British and French participation prompted this Russian government decision. It appears they want to pressure Britain and France through reinforcements.”
Franz pondered and said: “Providing strategic supplies is an easy matter. As long as the Russians are willing to pay, we can sell it to them.
Marshal, I would like to know how many forces England, France, and the Ottoman Empire can deploy to the Balkan Peninsula. After Russian reinforcements, can they gain the upper hand?”
Marshal Radetzky calculated and replied: “Your Majesty, considering logistics, the British, French and Ottoman side currently cannot commit over 800,000 troops total.
But as the Russian frontline advances, they can commit more forces. If decisive battle occurs in coastal regions, they may potentially commit over a million troops.
However, this is a theoretical figure. Supplying so many troops requires astronomical amounts of strategic supplies.
The Ottoman Empire can provide at most two to three tenths. The remainder must be shipped from Britain and France.
Considering war costs, Britain and France may opt to arm cheap Ottoman cannon fodder to fight Russians. Whether the Russians can gain the upper hand after the reinforcements depends on the proportion of forces held by the English and French.
From a strategic perspective, I am not optimistic about the Russians achieving their goals. Losing control of the Black Sea, the Russian supply relies mainly on the Danube River.
However, as the front line advances, the distance for land transportation also increases.
In a decisive battle in Bulgaria, the Russians can deploy a maximum of 500,000 troops. If they reach Istanbul, the Russians can deploy a maximum of 400,000 troops.
The actual situation may be worse, as the Ottoman Empire has been operating in the Balkans for centuries. After the Russian army occupies these areas, it will be challenging to eliminate their influence in the short term.
The Ottomans will likely organize guerrilla forces specifically to disrupt the Russian supply lines, increasing the logistical difficulties for the Russians.
If the war cannot be resolved quickly, the longer it drags on, the lower the likelihood of the Russians winning the war.”
Franz smiled faintly. This was the outcome he wanted. Unable to win, Russia would be Austria’s ideal ally. Perhaps there would even be a deepening of Russo-Austrian ties under British and French pressure. With a steady rear, Austria could develop in peace.
Franz now hoped that Nicholas I would remain resolute, allowing the war to continue for a longer duration.
Throughout history, every Russian tsar had set a good example. There’s a saying among the Russians: “A tsar who hasn’t fought a war against the Turks is not a good tsar!”
Russo-Turkish Wars typically lasted four to five years, often occurring once in a generation. Except for the previous Russo-Turkish War, the shortest duration was three years, and there were even two instances lasting more than ten years.
From a military perspective, the likelihood of Russia’s failure is very small. If they can win, they’ll attack; if they can’t, they’ll defend.
In a war of attrition, what Russia could not afford was finances, while Britain and France could not afford casualties.
The Russian Bear could expend hundreds of thousands of young soldiers, and throw out hundreds of thousands more. The aristocrats would not care about soldier deaths. On the other hand, if Britain and France lose hundreds of thousands of young soldiers, they have to consider the domestic situation.
As long as the Russians refuse to admit defeat and are willing to sacrifice lives, even if Britain and France exert their utmost efforts, they won’t be able to completely defeat them.
Unless Britain and France dares to invade the Russian homeland, all the way from the Baltic to St. Petersburg, they could not doom the Russian Bear in the Near East, no matter how much they fought.
This also meant that if Russia could not swiftly win, factors deciding the war were testing Russia’s fiscal endurance, and Britain and France’s tolerance for casualties.
After all, this war was not as serious as the World Wars. Britain, France and Russia were not at death’s door, and does not need to go all out.
Franz said indifferently, “Activate our forces to give them a push. The French are already on the scene, but the British expeditionary force is still at home. The stage is set, and we can’t let them miss this good show.”
John Bull’s integrity was truly too low. If they were not shoved into battle, the British government might well make the same choice as Austria.
Besides, if the British don’t get a taste of the brutality of land warfare in advance, how could they behave in Austria’s subsequent actions?
......
London
Due to the Ottoman Empire’s major defeat in the Battle of Bulgaria, Britain’s originally symbolic 20,000 man force was clearly insufficient for the needs of the war.
At the recent Paris negotiations, Palmerston had no choice but to raise the number of British troops to 80,000.
80,000 troops may be a small matter for any major land power, easily assembled in ten days to half a month.
However, for the British, with their pocket-sized army totaling just over 100,000, suddenly pulling out so many forces was clearly fraught with difficulties.
“Mr. Palmerston, why did you arbitrarily increase troop numbers? Do you know how much trouble this brings us?” Secretary of State for War Sir Fox Maule-Ramsay asked, dissatisfied.
Palmerston confidently explained: “Sir Maule-Ramsay, this is political necessity. In the recently concluded decisive battle, Ottoman losses were grievous. Our original plans can no longer meet war needs.
To contain Russia’s ambitions, we must commit more forces there. The French agreed to commit another 120,000 troops, plus the 50,000 already deployed, totaling 170,000 men. Under such circumstances, we have no choice but to increase troop numbers as well.
Moreover, deploying only 20,000 troops on the battlefield is too risky. There’s a chance of a complete annihilation.
With 80,000 troops, it’s much safer. We don’t have to worry about being swallowed whole by the Russians. The War Office doesn’t have to be on tenterhooks all the time.”
Maule-Ramsay’s anger grew upon hearing Palmerston’s explanation. He could acknowledge that British land forces were truly unpresentable compared to the Royal Navy.
But such disdain went too far. British land forces’ combat abilities were not poor, only seemingly lacking due to their paltry numbers among great powers.
“Mr. Palmerston, are you questioning the army’s combat abilities?” Maule-Ramsay glared at Palmerston, face red with anger.
Thinking about these matters was one thing, but openly demeaning the army was too much. The British army’s lack of strength was due to insufficient military funding, not a lack of effort on their part.
Realizing he misspoke, Palmerston immediately tried to remedy the situation: “No, Sir Maule-Ramsay. On the contrary, I think highly of the army’s combat abilities. As the saying goes, greater ability comes with greater responsibility on the battlefield. If our forces are too few, we can easily be outmaneuvered by the Russians.”
He didn’t even believe his own words. Even if Britain contributed the least in the alliance, the role of being cannon fodder would still fall on the Ottomans. How could they possibly risk British troops?
Maule-Ramsay let out a cold snort: “Humph!”
This little interlude passed.
Prime Minister Russell steered the conversation: “Sir Maule-Ramsay, our allies cannot wait any longer. How long does the army need to prepare?”
John Russell deeply disdained the Ottoman Empire’s performance.
After all, it was once an empire that dominated all of Europe. Now it was so easily pressed down and beaten by Russia, simply disgracing its ancestors.
Disdain aside, they were still allies for now, and had to ally against their common enemy. Only the Ottomans’ say in the alliance further dropped a couple of notches.
Maule-Ramsay had been waiting for this moment, and he responded indirectly, “Prime Minister, let’s expand the army!”
It was an awkward topic because the British focus on the navy had prevented the army’s size from increasing.
Hundreds of thousands of troops are needed to maintain the vast colonies, how many troops would be left in the homeland?
If they pull out 20,000 soldiers, they could still manage somehow. However, if they were to withdraw 80,000 soldiers, it would mean pulling out all the troops from the homeland.
Certainly, some troops must be left in the homeland, even if it’s just to suppress unrest in Ireland. They can’t completely withdraw domestic forces.
The number of troops in overseas colonies is also limited, making it impossible to pull more from them. Of course, the British do have a substantial number of colonial troops, and if they could be counted, they could quickly meet the required numbers.
John Russell rubbed his forehead, then asked: “How many troops are you planning to expand it?”
Maule-Ramsay smilingly answered: ‘Not many. The War Office’s demands are modest, just another 120,000 troops.”
Upon hearing this number, John Russell shook his head and said: “Sir Maule-Ramsay, expanding by 120,000 troops is not a problem as long as you can convince Parliament.”
Maule-Ramsay’s face flushed red. If persuading Parliament were so simple, the current British land forces would not be so tiny.
In this era, as the only industrialized nation among the great powers and the world’s leading colonial power, the British Empire was truly wealthy. Even if they were to maintain tens of thousands more troops, it wouldn’t be considered a problem.
Maule-Ramsay calmly said: “Prime Minister, the army’s manpower is limited, and there are too many places to defend. The total force left in the country is just over 70,000.
Sending 20,000 troops is already very difficult. Sending 80,000 troops, even if I include the War Office janitors, we still cannot meet the numbers.”
This was a good opportunity for expanding the army, and the War Office naturally wouldn’t give up. Every expansion came with a significant amount of benefits, and Maule-Ramsay naturally wanted to strive for it as much as possible.
“But expanding by 120,000 at once is too many. I cannot persuade Parliament. It’s as I said earlier — if you can persuade Parliament, then there’s no issue.” Russell rejected expressionlessly.
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