Chapter 180: Idealistic Strategy
Winter passed and summer came, and St. Petersburg had ended its bitterly cold days. Comfortable sunshine bathed every corner of this city, warming this land of ice and snow.
Battle reports from the Balkan Peninsula arrived. Reporting good news but not bad news has always been the shortcut for bureaucrats to advance themselves, and the Russian government was naturally no exception.
In this first round of the Balkan campaign, the Russians achieved complete victory. Even with the Russians suffering great losses at the Battle of Razgrad, adding a thread of flaws to this campaign, it did not diminish the bureaucrats’ desire to report victory.
The battle reports received by Nicholas I naturally omitted any Russian losses. Frontline officers briefly glossed over them, inflating the Ottoman army’s casualties, making it appear to be a great victory.
After receiving the news, Nicholas I held a celebratory banquet at the Winter Palace that very night. Unfortunately, the heroes were thousands of miles away, missing this glory meant for them.
The Russians had reason to celebrate. In the first round of the Bulgarian campaign, they achieved a major victory, advancing the front by over a hundred kilometers.
Starting from capturing Ruse, the Russians attacked the Ottoman army with a total force of 280,000, defeating nearly 500,000 Ottoman troops and 50,000 French.
The Russian casualties were just over 45,000, while they inflicted losses of 53,000 enemy soldiers and captured more than 38,000 of them.
Using half the forces to defeat double the enemies, trading 45,000 casualties to inflict 91,000 enemy losses, including over 10,000 French, this was clearly a major victory however you looked at it.
The Bulgarian guerrillas’ contributions were briefly glossed over, and their casualties naturally also ignored. Anyway, they won, so the Russian government did not care about specifics. Caring was useless, deceiving superiors and misleading subordinates had seeped into every corner of the Russian Empire.
Since the Ottoman army was claimed to be a force of 500,000, the one they defeated must have a force of 500,000. Actual enemy troop numbers were deliberately disregarded.
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After the celebratory banquet, Nicholas I returned to the main topic. The fact that the French had deployed troops to join the war was not good news at all.
Even though the Russian government had been considering the possibility of British and French involvement in the war since the British and French fleets seized control of the Black Sea, the actual occurrence of it was still distressing.
Perhaps the frontline officers still had some principles, or perhaps they knew this war would continue and they still had to desperately fight the French, and were afraid of falling into pits themselves. At the end of the battle report, they still emphasized the threat posed by the French army.
In summary, if it weren’t for the sudden appearance of 50,000 French troops on the battlefield, the decisive battle at Bulgaria would have spelled the Ottoman Empire’s demise.
If not for French reinforcements, it would not be long before the great Tsar could hold a victory parade in Constantinople. Thus, the great Tsar must remain extremely vigilant against these wicked French.
Nicholas I chuckled and said: “Gentlemen, the French really sent troops to participate in war. News has just arrived from London that the British Parliament has also passed a resolution to send troops.
From now on, we have two additional enemies. Britain and France are not as easy to deal with as the Ottomans. This war is far from over. Everyone, speak freely if you have any thoughts on how to fight going forward.”
With the frontlines achieving great victory, Nicholas I was in good spirits. Even knowing of British and French participation, he was furious but did not show it, fully confident of winning this war.
The strong had to maintain grace, especially when holding the winning hand.
This was no exaggeration. Judging purely by land forces, the Russians truly had such capabilities. At least in terms of population, the Russians have the numbers.
Russia’s total population in 1852 was estimated between 65 million to 76 million, more than the combined total of the British and French population. The total British population was around 28 million, while France’s was around 36 million.
(AN: Unfortunately, in this era, the Russian government did not have reliable population statistics, and historical data can vary significantly.)
The Ottoman Empire was automatically ignored by Nicholas I. The Bulgarian campaign had already exposed the Ottoman army’s pathetic combat abilities.
In subsequent wars, the Ottoman Empire would slip from protagonist to supporting character, with Britain and France as the new leads.
“Your Majesty, since Britain and France have jumped in, let’s make the Balkan Peninsula their grave, and let them know who is the world’s number one land power.
We should immediately reinforce the front lines, and annihilate the Ottoman Empire in one go, reclaiming Constantinople.” Minister of War Alexander Chernyshyov said murderously.
In a decisive battle with Britain and France in the Near East, the Russians did not have much advantage, nor would they suffer great losses. Geographically, both sides were evenly matched.
The Russians could be supported by Austria, transporting supplies via the Danube, while Britain and France could also ship in materials by sea. In terms of logistics, everyone is more or less on equal footing.
Sending reinforcements to the front line is inevitable. Winning this battle will come at a cost for the Russian army, and to continue the war, additional troops will be needed. Commanders at the front have already requested reinforcements from the homeland.
“Your Majesty, due to prior misjudgment, we did not expect direct British and French participation, and stockpiled massive amounts of strategic materials at Black Sea coastal ports.
Now that the sea routes are blocked, we can only transport supplies by land. Under current conditions, we can only supply 30% of materials required by the frontline army, the rest must be purchased from Austria.” Finance Minister Fyodor Vronchenko reminded.
To supply their present forces, they had no choice but to purchase large quantities of strategic materials from Austria. If troops in the Balkans continued increasing, military spending would keep rising.
Fyodor Vronchenko was not opposing reinforcements, just raising the issue to avoid blindly making plans, only to end up without money to wage war later on—that would be embarrassing.
100 million Austrian guilders may seem like a lot, but in reality, it’s just a drop in the bucket on the battlefield. The total number of Russian troops in the Balkans has now exceeded 300,000.
In a single Bulgaria campaign, the Russian army suffered losses of 45,000. Even if the lives of Russian soldiers are expendable, some compensation still has to be paid.
After winning the battle, rewards for merit cannot be avoided, and that also requires money.
The weapons and ammunition consumed on the battlefield, the damaged equipment that needs replacement—all of these cost money.
Even if there is no fighting, the monthly expenses for the 300,000 troops, covering their basic needs, exceed 4 million guilders. It’s not that the Russian army has high standards, but the cost of transporting supplies during wartime is high. Once the war starts, the money flows like water.
In a single Bulgaria campaign, the Russian army used up thousands of tons of ammunition. On average, they consumed nearly a hundred tons of ammunition every day. Just this alone accounts for expenses of over ten million guilders.
With so many miscellaneous expenses added together, the month-long Bulgarian campaign cost no less than 40 million guilders for the Russians, not even including wages.
The bulk of war funding still had to be solved by Russia themselves. Austria’s loans could only make up part of it. Naturally, the Ministry of Finance was under great pressure.
Nicholas I nodded. Making preparations for war in advance was still effective. At least in 1852, the Russian government didn’t have to worry about financial problems.
If the war continues, that might be a different story. The cost of warfare in the era of firearms has far exceeded that of the era of cold weapons.
“Then find a way to quickly resolve the war. Try to defeat the enemy within the year, and don’t give the British and French any chance! Minister of War, how many reinforcements do we need to end the war within the year?” Nicholas I asked with concern.
After pondering for a good while, Alexander Chernyshyov slowly replied: “Your Majesty, at least 300,000 more are needed. To be safe, 400,000 more would be best.”
In reality, Alexander Chernyshyov didn’t have a clear idea either. The situation on the battlefield is unpredictable, and the strength of the British and French is not to be underestimated. Moreover, there’s the desperate Ottoman Empire. Who knows how many troops it would take to end the war in a short time?
But since the Tsar asked, he had to answer, otherwise he would appear incompetent.
Alexander Chernyshyov still had some capability. He didn’t believe that the Russian army could end the war within the year and directly stated an impossible number.
Previously, deploying 300,000 troops in the Balkan Peninsula was already the utmost effort of the Russian Empire. If they doubled that number, soldiers wouldn’t be a problem, but logistics would be a disaster.
Even with the support of Austria, the combined forces of the two countries would struggle to sustain 600,000-700,000 troops in the Balkan Peninsula.
It wasn’t a lack of supplies but rather the inability to support such a massive force in terms of transportation. If the operations were within the Danube River Basin, logistics could be secured.
However, as the war progresses, the supply lines of the Russian army will also became longer, distancing themselves from the Danube. The reliance on animal-driven transport and human labor would increase, naturally adding significant pressure to logistics.
Nicholas I was no military novice. Upon hearing his Minister of War, he knew that ending the war within the year was impossible.
With Britain and France holding naval supremacy, even if Russia occupied the Balkans, they could still land any time they wished. How could the war end so easily?
Moreover, although the Ottoman Empire was decayed, a broken ship still has three catties worth of nails. The combat effectiveness that could erupt in a critical moment was not to be underestimated.
Foreign Minister Karl Nesselrode keenly said: “Mr. Chernyshyov, reality does not permit us to deploy so many troops to the Balkans. This plan seems feasible but is actually inoperable.
If we are unable to win the war in the Balkans, can we make a breakthrough in the Caucasus instead?
Victory on any front can shake Ottoman morale. As long as this decaying empire collapses, we will have won this war.”
Achieving a breakthrough in the Caucasus? No problem! It’s just that after conquering one mountain, there’s the next one.
Persisting in these efforts, it might take three to five years or even eight to ten years. As long as they persevere, they will eventually wear down the Ottoman Empire.
The prerequisite is that the Russian government can sustain itself and not bury itself before the war ends.
Reality may be cruel, but ideals must still exist.
While launching the Bulgarian campaign, the Russians did not overlook the Caucasus. However, due to geographical constraints, their efforts there were somewhat limited.
With the worsening Balkan situation against the Ottoman Empire, the Sultanate would definitely transfer large numbers of reinforcements over from Anatolia. Then reinforcements to the Caucasus would decrease.
This was also an opportunity for the Russians. While it would be difficult to advance from the Caucasus all the way to the Bosporus Strait, advancing into Anatolia might not be impossible.
Continuous defeats on any frontline would impact domestic stability for any country, let alone the crumbling Ottoman Empire.
Considering the influence of the Russians among the Eastern Orthodox population and the unpopular rule of the Ottoman Empire, orchestrating several nationalist uprisings doesn’t seem too difficult amidst continuous failures on the front lines.
If a nationalist uprising were to succeed, it would spell the end for the Ottoman Empire. Without the support of the local tyrant, the idea of Britain and France defeating Russia in the Near East is simply a pipe dream.
Since this is an idealistic plan, perfection could not be demanded. As long as theoretically feasible, it was enough. Nicholas I approved Karl Nesselrode’s proposal.
Success would undoubtedly showcase the wisdom of the Tsar, and in case of failure, they would only lose a batch of expendable soldiers, which the Russian government has in abundance.
Nicholas I had no reason to not undertake such a low-risk, high-reward venture.
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