Chapter 177: Choices Made by All Parties
London
The course of the Near Eastern War left the British astonished. The Russians actually agreed to give up the two duchies in the Danube River Basin in exchange for Austria’s logistical support.
This means that the Russians have a voracious appetite this time, as only greater benefits could make them abandon Moldavia and Wallachia.
John Russell’s expression was gloomy as he said: “Our previous plans have failed. Austria and Russia have reached an agreement. If we don’t make a move now, the Ottoman Empire will definitely not be their match.
Mr. Palmerston, does your foreign ministry have any way to quickly break up the alliance between Russia and Austria?
With these two nations working together, they are simply invincible in the Near East. Even if we and the French take joint action, victory would still be difficult.”
The British Prime Minister’s words were not unfounded. The only regions bordering Russia and the Ottomans were the Balkans and Caucasus.
Due to terrain constraints, large-scale military operations would face major logistical issues in the Caucasus.
Given Russia’s poor domestic transportation infrastructure and the complex terrain of the Caucasus, they can’t sustain a battle with over two hundred thousand troops.
Of course, if they maintain control of the Black Sea, they can use the coastline for logistical support without any issues.
Now, the only remaining land route for Russian troops is the Balkan Peninsula. Both Moldavia and Wallachia in the Danube River Basin are major grain-producing regions, and food supplies can be sourced locally, significantly reducing the logistical burden on the Russian army.
Even so, Russia lacked the ability to advance all the way to Constantinople. After occupying the two principalities, their offensive reach was basically maxed out, with strategic materials transported from Russia unable to keep up with frontline consumption.
However, with Austria on their side, it’s a different story. The Danube River provides a swift means to transport strategic resources, ensuring that supporting several hundred thousand troops on the Balkan Peninsula poses no issues.
Palmerston calmly replied: “Prime Minister, it was very simple to divide the Russo-Austrian alliance, we previously proposed it. As long as the Ottoman Empire agreed to cede the two Danubian principalities to Austria, it would have been enough to satisfy the Austrians. With Austria separating them from Russia, the current situation would not be so dire.”
To contain Russia, the British Foreign Ministry did have this plan, but ceding the two Danubian principalities to Austria was only part of it.
Historically, the British had proposed: giving the ?land Islands and Finland to Sweden; ceding the Baltic coast to Prussia; making Poland independent; giving Moldavia, Wallachia and the Danube Delta to Austria, with Austria giving up Lombardy and Venice, to be occupied by the Kingdom of Sardinia as part of the deal; Crimea and the Caucasus would return to the Ottoman Empire...
In theory, once implemented, this plan would greatly weaken Russia, depriving them of the ability to compete with Britain for world hegemony.
However, the plan failed to keep up with fast-changing circumstances, as it hadn’t even begun implementation before it fell apart. Not only did the Russians reject the plan, but Austria was also unwilling to accept it.
Although the two Danubian principalities were sizable with fertile land, these regions were still undeveloped, with less economic value than Lombardy and Venice.
Now, occupying these regions requires Austria to invest substantial human and material resources for development, and it has also put Austria on the frontlines as the vanguard against Russia, which is strategically disadvantageous.
Given this situation, it might be more practical to form an alliance with the Russians. Austria could still obtain control over these territories, albeit at the expense of the Ottoman Empire’s interests.
Franz has always adhered to the principle that “a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.” He wouldn’t sacrifice his own interests for the sake of countering the Russians’ ambitions.
The butterfly effect was still useful. Austria’s performance in the Russo-Turkish War proved the great powers’ strength to the outside world. Palmerston’s new strategy no longer proposed giving Lombardy and Venice to Sardinia.
Reading opponents was a British specialty. With Austria stronger than historically, their treatment was naturally better than history as well.
To cajole Austria into opposing Russia, they were willing to promise significant benefits. Unfortunately, their plans failed to persuade the Ottomans before war erupted.
“But the foolish Ottoman government failed to see this point. They only saw that ceding the two Danubian principalities would result in heavy losses, and they didn’t recognize the potential benefits of doing so.
I believe that after this Russo-Turkish War, reality will make the Ottomans a little more clear-headed to make the right choice.” John Russell grumbled incessantly.
Clearly, matters with the Ottoman Empire had already irritated this British Prime Minister.
Palmerston sneered: “Prime Minister, the Ottoman government is now clear-headed already. I believe they will make the right choice. But that is a matter for the future.
The most important thing now is to swiftly persuade Parliament to dispatch troops to the Balkan Peninsula. If we delay, the Ottomans may not be able to hold on.”
This is the British national strategy: prioritize dealing with the most significant threats. Until the Russians are defeated, they won’t change their focus.
In terms of threat level, Austria was still inferior to France at this time. Its terrible geography already demonstrated Austria’s inability to threaten Britain’s core interests.
John Russell pondered and said: “There won’t be big issues with Parliament. To safeguard our interests in the Mediterranean region, we must contain the Russians.”
Interests were eternal. Russia’s annexation of the Ottoman Empire seriously damages British interests. Interest groups will naturally support government intervention in the Near East War.
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Constantinople
Abdulmejid I regretted it. If he had known that the Russians and Austrians would come to an agreement so quickly, he would have accepted the British suggestion.
There are no regrets in politics. At this point, Russian and Ottoman forces have already engaged in combat in Bulgaria. Even more tragically, despite having more troops, they seem to be at a disadvantage on the battlefield.
“How much longer before our reinforcements can reach the front lines?” Abdulmejid I asked concernedly.
“Your Majesty, there are too many guerrillas in Bulgaria. Our reinforcements will take three more days to arrive.” The Minister of War answered in a lowered voice.
In this war, the Ottoman army’s speed was slower than they anticipated, naturally sapping the Minister of War’s confidence as he spoke.
Abdulmejid I let out a cold snort: “Humph!”
He added: “I don’t care how you do it, but we absolutely cannot lose Bulgaria. You all know what this place represents!”
Everyone hung their heads in silence. In modern times, the Ottoman Empire had relatively enlightened national policies.
Unfortunately, even the best policies require capable execution. The decaying Ottoman government was undoubtedly lacking in efficient execution, leading to public discontent.
The aftereffects emerged now. Not only did the local population not support the military operations, but they also suffered attacks from guerrilla forces, slowing down the march of reinforcements.
Fortunately, the Russian response was also slow, otherwise decisive battle would have already erupted at the frontlines, leaving the Ottoman government truly only able to cry.
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Athens, Greece
The outbreak of the Near East War brought joy to the Greeks as their opportunity to achieve their goals had arrived.
But Otto I now had a headache, facing the wooing of four great powers at once, he was unsure which side to take.
Ever since the 1850 conflict with Britain erupted, Greek nationalism had surged. At the beginning, Otto I believed nationalism benefited his rule, and thus supported this ideology.
Otto I believed he had grasped the key to gaining popular support, placing himself at the forefront of the patriotic movement.
How to prevent the patriotic fervor of the masses from cooling became Otto I’s conundrum.
After nationalism erupted, reclaiming lost lands became Greeks’ shared goal, as well as Otto I and Queen Amalia’s “great ideal”.
The Greek demands to reclaim territories seemed never-ending. The theoretical basis for these demands dated back to the Byzantine Empire, as Greeks aimed to recreate the territorial expanse of that era.
When the balance between power and ideals is lost, tragic days are not far off. During this era, the Kingdom of Greece covered an area of only a little over 50,000 square kilometers and had a population of less than a million. They simply couldn’t support their “ideals.”
“Gentlemen, which side should we take now?” Otto I asked with a frown.
For a small nation, the most sensible approach is to stand with the victors. However, in nations where nationalism is thriving, such a rational choice is often eschewed in favor of aligning with the side that offers the greatest benefits.
At this moment, Otto I was unaware that his rule was about to face a new crisis. Regardless of which side he chose, it was impossible to satisfy the Greek people’s appetite for reclaiming lost territories.
In idealism-prevailing Greece, the masses cared little for such details. They would only make demands of the government based on their ideals.
Throughout history, in the more than one hundred years from Otto I onwards, no Greek monarch was able to enjoy peaceful days because none of them could fulfill the ideals of the Greek people.
The Minister of Finance answered with a complex expression: “Your Majesty, the British and French navies have already controlled the Mediterranean and Aegean Seas. For national security, we can only stand with them.”
This is the most rational course of action. Regardless of who wins or loses, Greece, surrounded by the British, French, and Ottomans, has no real choice.
The Minister of War rebutted: “What can we gain by siding with the Ottoman Empire? Can we expect them to return our homeland out of charity?
The Russians have already promised that as long as we declare war on the Ottoman Empire, they will support us in reclaiming Thessaly and Epirus after the war.
The Austrians have even agreed to support us reclaiming however much territory we can conquer. Can we really give up such a once in a millennium opportunity?”
There was no helping it, Russia and Austria made generous promises using others’ resources. Naturally they did not mind giving promises to the Greeks. Britain and France were currently allies with the Ottoman Empire. How could they choose to sacrifice Ottoman interests to satisfy Greek demands?
Even if only to win over allies, the Kingdom of Greece was still unqualified!
Britain and France also had their pride, not just anyone could stand equal with them.
The Prime Minister chimed in: “That’s right, if we give up this once in a millennium opportunity, the public outside will not agree either. For the great revival of the Kingdom of Greece, it’s worth taking a little risk!”
It wasn’t that he wanted to side with Russia, nor that he failed to see the risks of doing so, but that the Greek people outside had already made the choice for them.
Nationalism is a double-edged sword; it can harm the enemy, but it can also hurt oneself. Now, King Otto I’s government has been hijacked by popular opinion.
Otto I pondered and said: “Since the masses have made their choice, our government should respect their choice.
But considering Britain and France’s positions, we also cannot openly declare war on the Ottoman Empire. Does anyone have good suggestions?”
There are no good ideas, but there is a bad one.
The Minister of War proposed, “Your Majesty, we can organize civilian militias to launch an attack on the Ottoman Empire. This way, we can give an explanation to both Russia and Austria while maintaining the face of Britain and France.”
In his view, British and French support for the Ottoman Empire was solely to counter Russia and did not necessarily mean that these two countries were genuinely supporting the Ottomans.
As long as the Kingdom of Greece maintains a balance, striking the Ottoman Empire without harming the prestige of Britain and France, they would not interfere.
A bad idea was still better than no idea. With no better solutions, this bad idea could only be used to muddle through.
Seeing the unanimous support from the others, Otto I finally made a decision, “Then give a response to the Austrian and Russian representatives. In this war, we support them!”
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