Chapter 162: Strategic Deception
London
Since the start of the European arms race, the British government had expressed close attention and kept a firm grasp on every country’s movements.
Foreign Secretary Palmerston spoke eloquently: “From the intelligence we have gathered, Austria’s military expansion this time should be aimed at the Ottoman Empire. Our plan to divert disaster eastwards has succeeded.
However, some changes have now occurred. The Austrian government may have reached a compromise with the Russians. In the short term, it will not be possible to provoke a Russo-Austrian conflict.
But with more conflicting interests, even the best relationships will crumble. From the moment Austria sets foot in the Balkans, the collapse of the Austro-Russian alliance is destined…”
Prime Minister John Russell frowned and questioned: “Mr. Palmerston, I believe your judgment that the Austro-Russian alliance will eventually collapse is correct. However, now is definitely not the time.
Before their common enemy - the Ottoman Empire - falls, Russia and Austria can still cooperate intimately.
The seeds of hatred were sown hundreds of years ago. Neither the Russians nor the Austrians ever wished for anything but the downfall of the Ottoman Empire.
Apart from hatred, there are even more enticing interests. The Russians covet the Black Sea Straits, while the Austrians covet the Danube River Basin.
The Ottoman Empire is too weak, and has been targeted by these two bandits. Yet we cannot let them fall at this time.
Austria’s designs on the Danube River Basin matter little, but once the Black Sea Straits fall into Russian hands, we stand to lose greatly.
I do not believe that just Constantinople alone can satisfy the Russian government’s appetite. After being pent up for so many years, their desires once unleashed will surely be earth-shattering.
Once the Ottoman Empire falls, at most Austria will annex half the Balkans, while Russia will occupy all the lands along the Black Sea coast.
By then, not only will our interests in the Ottoman Empire be unsafe, even our interests in the Mediterranean will be greatly affected, and South Africa and India will also face threats from Russia.”
This was the crux of the issue - the British needed the Ottoman Empire to block the Russians. No one wanted the Russians as a neighbor, not even John Bull.
If the Russians swallowed up the Ottoman Empire and grasped this central position spanning Asia, Europe and Africa, the situation would spiral completely out of control.
Palmerston explained with a gloomy face: “Prime Minister, the situation is not yet so dire. No European country wishes to see the Russians expand, and this is where opportunity lies.
Whether Austria and Russia have reached a consensus, and where each side’s bottom line is, are still unknowns.
But one thing is certain - the Austrians also do not wish to see the Russians expand. As old neighbors, their sense of threat from Russia is probably even more acute.
Therefore, in the upcoming great war, they will most likely just take advantage of the situation, then watch the tigers fight from the mountain top - the Ottoman Empire being beaten with one hit does them no good.
The Ottoman Empire’s strength is not weak. As long as they can prioritize defending against the Russian attack, with our support they should be able to hold out for a long period.
During this time, we can unite France, Prussia, Spain and other European countries to jointly intervene in this war.”
This explanation was not satisfactory. Judging from the current situation, the British government’s previous diplomatic policies have failed.
There was nothing wrong with directing Austria towards the Balkans, but the problem is the unreasonable Russian Bear is preparing to violently upset the situation!
Looking at the time Russia has spent on war preparations, everyone can see this war will absolutely not be small skirmishes. Add in opportunistic Austria, if there is no external intervention, the odds of the Ottoman Empire surviving this are infinitesimally small.
The British had long known a Russo-Turkish war was going to erupt. Not only they knew, European countries were also mentally prepared.
Battles between Russia and the Ottomans had been held many times, everyone understood the pattern - basically every generation, the two sides would have a match.
These battles were not always all-out wars. Often they were just local wars - any excuse could kick things off, and once they fought enough they’d stop.
This could be seen from the preparation time - generally, the more thorough the preparations, the more intense the war would be.
Starting in the second half of 1849, the Russians had been preparing. With still no signs of an outbreak even until now, the scale of this war can be imagined.
In this context, directing Austria into the Balkans naturally intensified the chaos. A Russo-Austrian confrontation would be fine, but a joint Russo-Austrian effort - even God could not save the Ottoman Empire then.
Palmerston naturally had a headache. If he had known this situation would arise, he wouldn’t have bothered with the Kingdom of Sardinia, and let Austria sink into the Italian quagmire, unable to extricate itself.
The situation now would be much better - an Austria without the ability to expand outwards would surely be at the forefront of opposing Russian expansion.
This was an inevitable outcome. If there was no benefit for him, Franz would also oppose further Russian expansion.
Not out of jealousy, but because national strategy demanded it. The principle of ebb and flow was clear to all - a stronger Russia meant a relatively weaker Austria.
John Russell pondered and said: “The Ministry of Foreign Affairs can start taking action now. In case Russia and Austria jointly act against the Ottoman Empire, they won’t be able to hold out for long.”
At this time, the British were not prepared to jump into the fray barehanded. With their pocket-sized army, being deployed would mean being swallowed up by war before long.
The key was that their heavyweight partner France was not yet in place. Napoleon III had not yet returned, with the parliament and president still locked in combat.
The severely internally divided French government carried no weight internationally. It would be enormously difficult for the French Foreign Ministry to fulfill any promises made.
……
Paris
For many, global turmoil was a disaster, but for Louis Napoleon Bonaparte, it was purely an opportunity.
The British needed a stable French government to play a role in suppressing Russian ambitions in the upcoming Russo-Turkish war.
At this time, apart from supporting him, was there a better choice?
They could hardly support the parliamentarians, right? Their efficiency was in no way comparable to that of a dictator.
Plans for restoration had already been born among the Bonapartists, lacking only a suitable occasion to launch it.
As for Austria’s current military buildup and preparations for war, Louis Napoleon Bonaparte believed, just like the British, that Austria’s target was the Balkans.
To mislead other countries strategically, the Austrian government did not just make empty claims.
Getting spies caught in the Balkans by the Ottomans was just a small trick. Massing troops on the Austrian-Ottoman border was routine.
Austrian public opinion also brought up old grievances against the Ottoman Empire. Balkan war plans were brought out and discussed every now and then by the military.
If one did not know Austria was preparing vengeance against the Ottomans, then they could not be Austrian.
Various strategic materials were also continuously being transported and stored in Transylvania, seemingly lacking only a pretext for Austria to dispatch troops into the Danube River Basin.
One must fool oneself first before fooling others - Franz still understood this principle. If even their own people believed it, what was there to fear about the enemy not believing?
Apart from the Austrian cabinet members, only a few top generals in the military knew the government’s true intentions. The vast majority of Austrians believed the government was going to war with the Ottoman Empire.
Many official media sources even knowledgeably analyzed that a Russo-Turkish war was about to erupt, and Austria just had to pick up the spoils, without having to pay too great a price, and could occupy the Danube River Basin.
With this series of actions, France and Britain naturally believed Austria was going to make a move on the Balkan Peninsula.
Meanwhile, the westward plan was completely obscured. The only action was probably the sudden acceleration of domestic railway construction.
Even the railways Bavaria was overseeing construction received assistance from many enthusiastic members of society, for the benefit of their business.
Many people urged the Royal Bavarian State Railways to accelerate construction, so as not to delay their money-making.
Austria’s strategic deception plan not only fooled Britain and France, but also confused Prussia. After determining Austria’s target was the Balkans, Frederick William IV could only gaze enviously, then go about his business.
There was no other option - even if they envied greatly, Prussia could not butt in on Russia and Austria’s business with the Ottoman Empire.
Geopolitics decided the Ottoman Empire’s interests were unrelated to the Kingdom of Prussia. Since that was so, let the Austrians expand their military. Anyway, without interests of their own involved, Prussia naturally had no need to follow suit.
Not only were several Great Powers duped, even the Swiss who had been anxious for a long time breathed a sigh of relief, assured that Austria was not targeting them. The life and death of the Ottomans was none of their concern.
With the media coverage, it was common knowledge that Russia and Austria were preparing to make trouble for the Ottoman Empire.
None of their business, detached from it all. The European populace universally turned into spectators, just waiting for the show to start.
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