Chapter 160: Arms Race
The navy’s shipbuilding plan was vetoed by Franz, but in the 1851 navy budget, an additional million or so guilders were allocated, reaching a total of 12,681,000 guilders.
The Austrian government attached great importance towards the navy, but no matter how much they emphasized it, they couldn’t change the fundamental nature of Austria as a land power.
In 1851, the army budget increased even more rapidly, soaring to 61,246,200 guilders, and the Grand Reserve Strategy was officially launched. According to the plan, starting from now, 200,000 reservists would be added annually.
The total budget for military expenses in the Austrian Empire in 1851 increased by nearly 20% compared to 1850, with the footsteps of war were drawing near.
As neighbors, it’s impossible for Austria not to be aware of Russia’s actions. Not long ago, Nicholas I levied a war tax using the excuse of expanding towards distant lands.
Without the Russian-Austrian Secret Treaty, people might still have doubts and not be certain about Russia’s war objectives. However, the Austrian government, who knew the truth, was almost 100% sure that another Russo-Turkish war was about to break out.
In this scenario, as an ally, the Austrian government naturally followed suit. Without Russia’s major moves, how could Austria’s strategy proceed?
Thanks to Russia’s actions, the Austrian government’s increase in military spending raised no eyebrows. From the perspective of external observers, this was a normal response; having a neighbor like the Russian Bear made vigilance quite justifiable.
European politics has always been interconnected, and arms races tend to spread. Even though Russia and Austria had no intention of initiating an arms race, everyone followed suit.
Various governments increased military spending, but the British stood out as an exception, as they rarely engaged in land-based arms races.
Not all countries had a favorable fiscal situation, like the financially troubled Kingdom of Prussia, which didn’t follow suit this time.
Frederick William IV was no fool, and following Russia and Austria in an arms race was financially unsustainable for the Kingdom of Prussia. Military spending was already surpassing half of their revenue, and further increases could lead to bankruptcy.
France, despite its financial difficulties, followed suit in the arms race. The French government might have been short on cash, but private financial institutions and banks had money to lend.
This was the foundation of an old empire like France, as it had ample financial resources to draw from. It’s also why France, after Britain, became the second major industrialized nation among the Great Powers.
Belgium was close to completing industrialization around the same time as the British, but their industrial system was less developed, and many industries didn’t exist.
Although Belgium was ahead in the race for industrialization, they couldn’t match several Great Powers in terms of industrial strength and only held advantages in specific areas.
Vienna
Prime Minister Felix spoke up, saying, “Your Majesty, under the influence of Russia’s military preparations, and with the exception of Prussia, which is facing financial difficulties and hasn’t taken action yet, countries across Europe are expanding their armed forces and preparing for war.
Just a week ago, with the support of Louis Napoleon Bonaparte, the French government passed a bill to expand the army, adding another 50,000 troops. After this expansion, their total strength will reach 436,000, second only to Russia.
For our upcoming strategic plans, the French have now become the primary concern, and we must be vigilant and prepared to respond accordingly.”
France has historically been a traditional European land power and has clashed with the Habsburg dynasty for centuries. During the Napoleonic era, the French army reached its zenith.
When it comes to the French, everyone holds a very high level of vigilance. Upon learning of France’s military expansion plans, the Austrian government immediately convened a cabinet meeting.
Franz furrowed his brow, knowing that this was not an overreaction. The threat from the French had to be taken extremely seriously.
“How many troops do they have stationed in mainland France?” Franz inquired with concern.
The number of troops in France’s overseas territories wasn’t of much concern; they always required garrisons for them. What mattered was how many of their forces were concentrated on the mainland, as that was the presence that could potentially threaten Austria.
Prime Minister Felix replied, “Before the military expansion, they had 221,000 troops, and it’s uncertain how many will remain after the expansion. The worst-case scenario is that all 271,000 troops remain on the mainland.”
Franz breathed a sigh of relief. Once the Russians made their move, it was certain that the British and French would assist the Ottoman Empire, and in that case, France wouldn’t have so many troops left on the mainland.
Due to the state of their reserve system, the French military expansion would take some time to become combat-ready, and this presented an opportunity.
What worried Franz the most was the potential for the French government to reinstate their reserve system and return to the days of Napoleon, with the ability to call up millions of troops for war at any time. Such a war mobilization mechanism posed the greatest threat.
Clearly, Louis Napoleon Bonaparte’s military abilities were not that great. Otherwise, during the Franco-Prussian War, they wouldn’t have rushed into a battle with the Prussians with only 220,000 troops, ultimately getting soundly defeated by the Prussian forces that outnumbered them by more than twice.
Perhaps their sense of injustice from that defeat, combined with a little prodding from the British, had turned France and Germany into bitter rivals with seemingly irreconcilable differences.
Franz asked with uncertainty, “If the French only deploy this many troops for intervention, should we be able to handle it?”
It’s a specialized question, so it requires specialized knowledge.
Franz believed he had a certain level of military knowledge, mainly in terms of strategy. When it came to specific tactical matters, he believed that those with expertise in commanding units below the division level should be consulted.
In a situation where battles involved tens of thousands of troops, it was the Chief of the General Staff, Marshal Radetzky, who had more authority. He had firsthand experience from facing the French army during its peak.
Marshal Radetzky thought for a moment before responding, “Your Majesty, the current French army is no longer the unstoppable force of the Napoleonic era. After years of attrition, they have lost that aura of invincibility.
In a situation with roughly equal forces, we can engage the French in a decisive battle. If we wait for the Kingdom of Bavaria to complete the construction of the railway, and then take military action, within a week, we can advance as far as Baden, keeping the French beyond our borders.”
Ever since he saw the strategic railway network of the Austrian government, Marshal Radetzky realized the immense military utility of railways.
If railways could be used for transporting goods, they could naturally be used to transport troops and provide effective logistical support.
Southern Germany was not an impenetrable fortress, and Austria had been operating in these regions for many years. Mobilizing troops was almost a sweep, and with the help of nationalist sympathizers as guides, these small states would find it difficult to resist.
As long as they moved quickly, denying these small states the chance to collude with the French, there would be no major disruptions.
And it wouldn’t take too long, just two or three months. After politically settling things with the leaders of various countries, the armies of these Germanic states could change their allegiance and join the Austrian forces to resist French invaders.
With the support of the local population, Austria would be in an unbeatable position. France today is not the same as the era of Napoleon; it can’t push forward all the way anymore.
Minister of War Prince Windisch-Gr?tz spoke up, saying, “It’s not just in Southern Germany; if the French intervene, they might also join forces with the Kingdom of Sardinia, making us fight on two fronts.”
Marshal Radetzky shook his head and replied, “It doesn’t matter. They fight their battles, and we’ll fight ours. If France dares to send its main forces to the Italian region, we can simply march on to Paris.
In terms of distance, we have the advantage. I can’t say for sure if we can capture Paris, but we can certainly gamble with the French government. If we lose the bet, we might give up Lombardy, but if we win, France will have to pay a hefty price.”
Seeing the debate between the two, everyone instinctively refrained from getting involved. This was precisely the effect that Franz wanted. If the Ministry of War and the General Staff had no disagreements, he would consider replacing them.
It had nothing to do with trust; it was an instinct for maintaining the balance of power as an emperor.
If he allowed his subordinates to collude too much, they might become overbearing and deceitful. In history, many emperors were sidelined. Similarly, he couldn’t allow his subordinates to engage in endless conflicts, as that would hinder productivity.
After some consideration, Prince Windisch-Gr?tz countered, “The French aren’t pushovers. How can we expect to capture Paris within a short amount of time?
Once we fail to capture Paris, the war will reach a stalemate, and the advantage of the French fighting on their home soil will become evident. They can swiftly mobilize hundreds of thousands of cannon fodder troops.
While these troops lack training, in times of defending their homeland, they can compensate for their lack of preparation with sheer morale.
At that point, hindered by logistical constraints, we would still have to withdraw without achieving our objectives, and retaking Italy, which we have lost, would become challenging.”
Not willing to be outdone, Marshal Radetzky responded, “Even if we can’t capture Paris, we can still severely weaken the French. They might concentrate their forces to defend Paris, leaving other areas vulnerable. If they refuse to compromise, we can go on a rampage, burning, looting, and destroying their industrial and commercial infrastructure in the northeastern regions.
I dare not say much, but if we create millions of homeless refugees and incite them to loot and pillage, we can spread chaos across all of France. With turmoil within their borders, can they afford not to withdraw from Italy? Can the Kingdom of Sardinia alone prevent us from reclaiming Italy?”
Indeed, these old veterans are quite ruthless. If they were to carry out such actions, it’s likely the French would take more than a decade to recover, and the enmity between Austria and France would solidify, making the main international conflict in the future the Austro-French rivalry.
If Franz had to choose, what would he do? Of course, he would go ahead with it. Since they’ve become enemies, what’s the difference between doing it halfheartedly and doing it wholeheartedly?
If they’re already enemies, why be afraid of them? At worst, they could just pretend to be submissive to the British and avoid challenging their naval supremacy, as Austria’s geographic location makes it virtually impervious to threats from the sea.
Having successfully subdued the French, their military spirit would be ignited. Once they unified Southern Germany, the Austrian Empire would undergo a complete transformation.
Metternich took on the role of peacemaker, smiling as he said, “Gentlemen, there’s no need to be so agitated. As long as we choose the right moment and establish the facts, the French are likely to accept it.
They’re not fools, and if we deploy 300,000 to 400,000 troops in South Germany without an equivalent force on their side, how could they risk intervening?
Moreover, if the French intend to interfere, the most feasible route for them to deploy troops is via the Rhineland. Would the Kingdom of Prussia dare to allow them passage?
When we take action, Prussia is likely to follow suit. Would the French be willing to watch the Kingdom of Prussia unify Northern Germany? They have their eyes on the lands west of the Rhine, and a powerful Kingdom of Prussia wouldn’t align with their interests.
In the future, in dealing with the French, we and Prussia will remain allies.”
After hearing Metternich’s explanation, the people in the room were pleased. It’s a common theme in this era to pick on the weak and avoid the strong.
The French want things that are not in Austrian hands, and even if they interfere in the unification of the German regions, it’s essentially for their own interests.
On the contrary, the Kingdom of Prussia wants to preserve its territory west of the Rhine, and they must contend with the French. Would they want to compromise? Would the nationalist elements within their country allow it?
Franz spoke slowly, saying, “Alright, let’s put the French issue aside for now. The current concern is the arms race among European nations, and our good neighbor, the Kingdom of Prussia, is struggling.
It seems that the Prussian-Danish War was not fought in vain. In the short term, Prussia will have a hard time recovering, which is a good thing for us.
From the current situation, it appears that the Russian Empire is likely to launch a war in 1851, at the latest by 1852. Should we consider escalating the arms race?”
There’s no doubt that on the European continent, the only nations whose land armies pose a threat to Austria are Russia, France, and Prussia. Now that Prussia is grappling with a financial crisis and is unable to keep up, this is an opportune time to elevate the arms race to a new level, involving Russia, France, and Austria.
Prime Minister Felix clenched his teeth and said, “Your Majesty, we can gamble on Russia provoking a war, and then Britain and France intervening. That’s when the opportunity to unify Southern Germany may arise.
Now, by escalating the arms race and eliminating Prussia first, with one less competitor, we have a better chance of success. If we lose the gamble, we can always implement the Balkan strategy; it won’t be a total loss!”
How could it not be a loss? In Prime Minister Felix’s view, not moving west into Germany and instead heading to divide the Balkans was originally an unprofitable deal.
However, to gain the support of the Balkan faction, he was willing to take the risk. If the opportunity for unifying Southern Germany arises, it’s a win. If not, they can resort to other means in the Balkans to compensate for their losses.
Marshal Radetsky exclaimed enthusiastically, “Your Majesty, this risk is worth taking! If we lose, it’s just a few million guilders, but if we win, it’s Southern Germany!”
Indeed, if they lose, it’s just a few million guilders in military expenditure. It wouldn’t be a complete waste, as it would still enhance their military capabilities.
The Austrian government isn’t stubborn; they can always adapt to challenging situations.
If the international situation turns unfavorable and they can’t move west, they can head south and deal with the Ottoman Empire, compensating for their losses. Even if Russia decides to go eat ice cream in the Far East, Austria can go solo.
Thinking this through, Franz had already made up his mind.
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