Chapter 157: A Wonderful Misunderstanding
Ever since receiving the message from the Prussian government, the top echelons of the Austrian government immediately sensed something amiss.
Could the British have actually done this? Nobody had any doubt about John Bull’s obstinacy.
During the previous Frankfurt Assembly, the British had already proposed the idea of dismantling the German Confederation. Now, in order to execute this plan, they were exerting diplomatic pressure on Prussia, which was entirely standard practice.
Franz was also taken aback, realizing that the British had all the motivation to pursue such a course of action, given their national policy, which revolved around the European balance of power.
According to this plan, the German Confederation would be transformed into one major power and two medium-sized countries.
This arrangement would theoretically create the most stable European structure, capable of blocking any further expansion by France and Russia into Central Europe, without posing a direct threat to their respective positions. With British support, this arrangement seemed solid.
Anyone aiming to unify the German territories would need to be prepared to face off against all major European powers. Even if Austria were to gain Russia’s support, there would be little chance of success.
It’s not that Franz underestimated himself, but a united Germany, even if it were disorganized states individually, could muster a formidable army if consolidated – a force to be reckoned with.
With the participation of the British and the French, unless Austria pulls the Kingdom of Prussia into their side to jointly annex this new country, the situation would indeed be a complex alliance.
It would likely result in a confrontation of Russia and Austria against Britain, France, Prussia, and the German states. Other European countries might also get involved.
Franz had no doubt about the cunning ways the British employs for winning over allies. Belgium and the Netherlands would likely join to prevent the unification of the German territories, and even Switzerland might take a stance against Austria.
As for the chances of victory, Franz couldn’t know at this point. Unless the battlefield were shifted to Russia’s territory, where the enemies might freeze to death in winter.
However, despite these concerns, the Austrian government remained undaunted.
The belief in Russia’s strength as a continental power was shared by many, and in their eyes, Russia could potentially handle a land battle against Britain and France. Austria, on the other hand, could deal with Prussia and the German states.
In their view, the only trouble lies in the geographical location. They fear that if Britain and France were to leave Russia alone and focus their offensive on Austria, it could spell disaster.
Confidence is always good, at the very least, it demonstrates that the Austrian Empire has not fallen into decline, and the pride of a major power remains. If the government were to back down upon hearing this news, then Franz would truly be unable to lead.
Metternich angrily said, “Your Majesty, given the current situation, we need to support Prussia. As long as they hold their ground, the sinister intentions of the British cannot succeed.”
Although he had previously been against expanding into the German territories, that was in the past. Since the signing of the Russian-Austrian Secret Treaty, Metternich had gradually changed his stance.
He understood that Austria could not turn back now. Apart from expanding its influence abroad and strengthening its own power as much as possible, there were no other options. Moving west into the German territories was an indispensable part of this strategy.
Without the population of Southern Germany, Austria’s ambitions for external expansion would likely take two to three decades to digest, even with the implementation of the Balkan strategy.
In such a long time, it’s hard to predict how much the strength of various countries would have grown. In this dog-eat-dog era, falling behind could mean that danger is fast approaching.
Prime Minister Felix pondered for a moment and said, “This information was released by the Prussian government, and it’s likely they don’t want to compromise.
Mr. Metternich, considering your understanding of Prussia, what are the chances of them agreeing to a joint partition of the German territories if we propose it now?”
Metternich analyzed, “That would depend on how the partition is proposed, but I estimate that reaching a consensus would be quite difficult. The failure of the Prussian-Danish War has dealt a blow to the radical factions within the Prussian military, but they still wield considerable influence over the government.
According to our original plans, we intended to annex the Southern German territories, while whatever we could grab in Northern Germany is a bonus.
Even if we make concessions now, we would probably only give up on Northern Germany.
These concessions might not be enough to satisfy the ambitions of the radical elements within the Prussian military, but many within the Prussian government might be content. Not everyone harbors such grand ambitions.
If the pressure exerted by the British becomes too intense, it’s possible that someone within the Prussian government might push Frederick William IV to compromise with us.”
At present, the relationship between Prussia and Austria is still relatively stable. Although there is a fair amount of covert maneuvering, both nations have not yet openly clashed. They continue to cooperate on many issues.
Following the British plan, Prussia would end up with almost nothing and be expelled from the German Confederation.
However, if they were to join forces with the Austrian government to partition the German territories, they could gain control of the prosperous Northern Germany. This would also help Prussia increase its population by half.
These gains would position Prussia more firmly among the great powers, alleviating its current awkward situation of being neither here nor there.
Franz thought for a moment and said, “Then let’s first make secret contact with the Prussian government. They may not be aware of the Russian-Austrian Secret Treaty.
Even if the news of the partition of the German territories leaks out, as long as we deny it, the British and the French won’t be able to do much to us.”
Archduke Louis suggested, “Your Majesty, if we take some action now and use the British’s influence to push Prussia out of the picture, wouldn’t it be more advantageous for us? We could enjoy the spoils without having to share.”
The idea here is to let Austria benefit independently without involving Prussia.
If Britain and France join forces to pressure Prussia, and Austria simultaneously makes covert moves in that direction, Prussia might not withstand the combined pressure.
This time, the Russians will certainly not support Prussia. There’s no other reason – the great Tsar is vengeful.
Given the tendency of Russian bureaucrats to curry favor, they’ll likely get the job done first and then report the victory to Nicholas I.
For a specific example, you can refer to the last Christmas gift, where the Russian representative pressured the Prussian government to withdraw its troops before Christmas.
Taking everything alone is certainly good, but one should be prepared for Prussia to stab them in the back. If they can suppress Prussia, then of course, they can go ahead.
As long as the Austrian Empire becomes a bit stronger, and the Russian Empire doesn’t really collapse, Franz doesn’t mind taking everything alone.
Franz shook his head and said, “It’s not that easy. At such a critical moment, having one more friend is better than one more enemy. After Austria’s annexation of Southern Germany, we will have achieved our strategic goals, and if the Northern German states give up, so be it.
Being too greedy can backfire. Our trump card is the Russian-Austrian Secret Treaty, but the Russians might not be that reliable. In case they don’t pull their weight, and we can’t suppress Prussia, we’ll have to fight on two fronts.”
Under normal circumstances, the Prussian government wouldn’t agree to Austria’s distribution plan. But once news of the Russian-Austrian Secret Treaty is revealed, the Prussian government will most likely compromise.
That’s the reality, no matter how many promises Britain and France make, they won’t have any effect.
It’s mainly because Prussia is too close to Russia and Austria. If they dare to get mixed up with Britain and France, they would probably be defeated before the English and French reinforcements arrive.
The Alliance of the Three Northern European Courts is essentially a result of geopolitics. Austria and Russia joined hands, and Prussia doesn’t want to be in a precarious position, so it has to join this alliance too.
Otherwise, after the Russian-Austrian Secret Treaty was concluded, Nicholas I’s initial reaction wouldn’t have been to invite Prussia to join. It’s not because they have good relations, but because there was a high likelihood that Prussia would join.
Due to the Prussian-Danish War, the Russian government had to temporarily abandon this enticing plan. The Russians were still concerned that the Prussian government might leak the information.
If they couldn’t catch Britain and France off guard, the Russian strategy would be challenging to succeed. If Britain and France got the upper hand, the potential combat capability of the Ottoman Empire can muster should not be underestimated.
This is also the key to the success of the Austrian government’s strategy of moving west. After all, they are following the Russians, waiting for Britain and France to team up to confront the Russians before Austria takes action.
Thanks to the Vienna System, the military strength of the French has been significantly weakened, and their mobilization mechanisms are no longer effective.
In order to avoid pressure from various European countries, King Philippe has not deployed many troops in his homeland, let alone maintained a large reserve of conscripts.
The French active-duty army comprises just over 300,000 troops. If tens of thousands of them are sent to engage with the Russians, their capacity to intervene with the Austrian forces becomes quite limited.
Mass production of soldiers can lead to a qualitative change in military capabilities. As long as Austria prepares adequately and mobilizes a sufficiently large army, they could effectively repel any French intervention.
The French, if defeated just once, would likely be severely weakened. In such a situation, Napoleon III might not even have the opportunity to deal with domestic issues, let alone focus on Austria.
As for Prussia, when Franz initiates his move, he plans to position 500,000 troops on the Prussian-Austrian border. He will also use strategic resources to entice the Russians, redirecting their forces from the eastern front to the Prussian-Russian border.
If Austria decides to gobble up the entire territory on its own, Prussia might even attempt a military gamble to salvage the situation. However, Franz will be also providing them with an incentive, which could push the Prussian government to compromise.
Everyone has their own interests and responsibilities, and those governing Prussia are not na?ve. They wouldn’t blindly take unnecessary risks.
Even the more radical factions are likely to opt for swallowing Northern Germany first before proceeding. Once this bait is taken, Prussia would be forced to halt and digest its gains.
……
The Prussian government, which had been open to the idea of forming an alliance with Austria, naturally wouldn’t reject the olive branch extended by the Austrian government.
It turns out that the Austrian government’s assessment of Prussia was incorrect. After the failure of the Prussian-Danish War, many within the Prussian government lost confidence in the strategy for German unification.
This is the tragedy of small states; they can’t withstand failure.
After the Prussian-Danish ceasefire treaty was signed, internal conflicts in Prussia erupted. The revolutionary elements once again initiated uprisings, although these uprisings were quickly suppressed by the military.
In this context, Frederick William IV didn’t even have time to secure his rule, let alone pursue a strategy to unify Germany.
In history, after Prussia’s plans suffered setbacks, the nation entered a period of decline. It was only when the Iron Chancellor, Otto von Bismarck, came to power that Prussia’s morale was restored through a series of alliances and victories, including the Second Schleswig War (Second Prussian-Danish War).
Under Bismarck’s leadership, Prussia gained the confidence to challenge Austria, resulting in the Austro-Prussian War, which Prussia won. It was after these victories that the Prussian army underwent its transformation.
Many experts and scholars believe that Prussia’s decision to spare Austria after the war was part of its diplomatic strategy to avoid Austria becoming an adversary during a potential future Franco-Prussian War.
Bismarck’s concerns about the religious implications of absorbing Austria and the potential for increasing the number of Catholics within the newly unified German Empire were valid. He was mindful of the domestic religious conflicts that might arise.
However, Franz, on the other hand, had a different perspective. He believed that even if Austria couldn’t be absorbed, perhaps territorial concessions or reparations could be an alternative solution.
Historically, during the Austro-Prussian War, Austria primarily suffered political losses, and the material costs were not substantial.
Living in this era, Franz understood that Prussia’s financial situation was indeed dire. Considering the circumstances of the time, Austria was not without the strength to fight it out.
After the decisive battle ended in failure, Austria’s mobilization of its reserves on the home front was nearly complete. If Prussia didn’t decide to make peace, it could have turned into a protracted war.
However, observing the dwindling resources in his coffers, Bismarck made a resolute decision to seek an amicable settlement.
He realized that benefits are ultimately secured through strength, and if Austria still had the potential to resist, the price of a prolonged conflict might not be worth it.
If, at that moment, the Austrian government had opted to take a scorched-earth approach and stubbornly clash with Prussia, it might have been possible to secure a favorable outcome without the need for concessions. As Prussia’s resources dwindled, they would naturally withdraw its troops.
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