Chapter 155: The Grand Reserve Strategy
On October 23, 1850, the German Federal Council convened in Frankfurt. Austria proposed a joint cabinet for all member states and quickly gained support at the assembly.
The support from the smaller member states mainly served to bolster Austria’s position, but the ultimate decision-making power still rested with the larger member states.
Prussia and Bavaria, on the other hand, vehemently opposed this proposal. Forming a joint cabinet where each country would send a representative was a problematic idea in their view, and they had every reason to object.
Austria was the predominant power among the German states, and once this joint cabinet was formed, it was a given that the Prime Minister would be an Austrian representative. There was no doubt about it.
As long as you think about it, you would know that a cabinet of over thirty people would inevitably lead to disputes when decisions had to be made. Ultimately, the Prime Minister would be the one to make the final call.
In such a system, the influence of Bavaria and Prussia would naturally be reduced to a minimum, not much different from the smaller member states.
While they might have some influence over the smaller states in the short term, over time, the smaller states would be less likely to listen. After all, in the federal system, everyone’s rights are equal, so even if they have a problem, what can they do?
After winning over the smaller states, Austria could proceed with unifying the federation, such as adopting a unified federal currency, establishing a unified federal military force, and implementing unified federal finances…
There was not a need to rush; it’s better to take it slowly and gradually boil the frog in water. A hundred and eighty years later, the German Confederation was indeed unified.
That was the ideal scenario, but reality was different. After Prussia and Bavaria’s opposition, even the British, French, and Russians voiced their objections.
In short, the unification of Germany wasn’t possible, not even in name.
The British even suggested dissolving the German Federal Council and having Bavaria and the smaller German states merge to form a new country, which would naturally exclude Austria and Prussia.
This proposal was supported by the Kingdom of Bavaria, and France and Russia had no objections. However, it faced strong opposition from the representatives of Prussia and Austria.
Just a moment ago, they were enemies, but under the proposal of John Bull (a colloquial term for Britain), Austria and Prussia instantly joined forces. This once again confirms that among nations, there are no eternal friends or eternal enemies, only eternal interests.
Seeing the situation was taken over by the British, with their goals having already been achieved, the Austrian representative naturally wouldn’t propose the election of an emperor again to avoid provoking the Prussians.
The British had also achieved their goals, successfully planting the seeds of division. All three countries - Austria, Prussia, and Bavaria - now had conflicts, and the support of the great powers undoubtedly stimulated Bavaria’s ambitions, just waiting for the right moment to take root and sprout.
If the Kingdom of Bavaria’s power were to increase two or threefold, with the support of the great powers, it might indeed have a chance to divide Germany into three.
After all, the balance of power is the most stable; as long as the weak unite against the strong, under the intervention of other European countries, both Prussia and Austria would lose their opportunity to unify Germany.
However, Maximilian I, despite his ambitions, lacks both the strength of Bavaria and the political acumen to pursue such an ambitious goal.
Given Bavaria’s relatively limited power, challenging Prussia and Austria would require the Bavarian king to gather support from other smaller states.
In theory, when you add up the populations of all the small states in the German region, it comes close to nearly 17 million people, and their combined strength isn’t much different from that of the Kingdom of Prussia.
By joining forces with Prussia and proposing the establishment of the “Three Kingdoms Cabinet,” Bavaria undoubtedly harmed the interests of these small states.
In this situation, Bavaria’s leadership among the small states was undermined. For the sake of elusive benefits, they sacrificed their own foundation. Franz involuntarily lowered the threat level of Bavaria by two notches.
Sch?nbrunn Palace, Vienna.
The Ministry of War has proposed to the Austrian government to expand the reserve forces. Currently, the Austrian Empire has over 300,000 active-duty troops and more than 500,000 reservists.
In theory, if a war were to break out, the Austrian government could mobilize an additional 500,000 troops within a month.
However, the actual experience in 1848 demonstrated that the Austrian government’s mobilization mechanisms were inadequate. It took just as long to mobilize around 200,000 troops.
Of course, this was partly due to the inefficiency of the Austrian government at that time. With improved efficiency, the mobilization process should be significantly faster now.
Mobilizing the reserves is not just about calling people up; it also requires training to restore combat readiness. Having weapons, equipment, and ammunition reserves is equally indispensable.
Prince Windisch-Gr?tz analyzed, “To ensure the national defense security of the Austrian Empire, the current mobilization mechanism is no longer adequate for the present needs.
Since the February Revolution (Révolution de février) in Paris, the French have broken free from the constraints of the Vienna System, and their military strength is rapidly recovering over these past two years.
Once the internal struggles within the French government are resolved, will they provoke a new round of expansion abroad? Where will that expansion occur?
Nobody knows the answer to this question, so we must be prepared to face the challenges that lie ahead.”
He continued, “Prussia, our neighbor, has not exactly been idle in recent years. Their military expenditures have not dropped below 40%, have they?
Such high military spending cannot be without purpose. Over the past few decades, Prussia has expanded its territory several times, and now they want to unify the German territories. Whether it’s a pipe dream or not, we must deter their attempts.
Furthermore, we have Russia as our ally. I understand it’s immoral to doubt our allies, but the Russian Empire’s strength is indeed overwhelming. In case a day comes when our interests clash, the Austrian Empire cannot be without any means to defend itself, can it?
To secure the national defense of the Austrian Empire in the face of future international developments, our military strength must be enhanced.
Considering our fiscal capacity, expanding the number of active-duty troops is a daunting task. So, we believe that increasing the number of reserves to two million is a reasonable figure while we reorganize our mobilization mechanisms.”
The “French threat theory,” the “Prussian threat theory,” and the “Russian threat theory” – he has certainly presented three major threats. It’s clear that Prince Windisch-Gr?tz has done his homework.
Finance Minister Karl smiled and said, “The Ministry of War wants to increase the reserves by two million, and I fully support it, as long as it doesn’t increase military expenditure.”
Not increasing military spending? How is that possible? Even though reserves are much cheaper than active-duty troops, there’s still an annual cost for basic military training, right?
Austria’s reserves, like most countries, are made up of retired officers. To increase the number, they can either extend the length of reserve duty or shorten the active-duty soldiers’ service time.
To increase the number of reserves to two million is theoretically a simple task, except for the need for funds.
Now, if the Finance Minister won’t provide the money, doesn’t this plan sound like a joke? This financial gap isn’t just a few million; it’s over ten million.
Prince Windisch-Gr?tz reluctantly said, “Mr. Karl, please don’t joke around. Two million reserves, with regular training for all these people every year. If your finance department doesn’t provide the money, should I go out in the streets and beg for it?”
There’s no doubt that the military’s proposal to expand the number of reserves at this time is primarily aimed at competing for next year’s fiscal budget.
With a significant influx of foreign capital, Austria in 1850 was already showing signs of prosperity. Factories sprang up, and even though many of these enterprises were tax-exempt, they still contributed substantial tax revenues to the government.
This isn’t a contradiction. Some tax-exempt companies don’t mean their upstream raw material suppliers and downstream sales channels are also tax-exempt.
Although the concept of an industrial chain hadn’t deeply penetrated people’s minds, it was indeed emerging. The benefits generated by a single factory were not limited to the factory itself.
Apart from driving direct upstream and downstream industries, they also stimulated the development of ancillary industries like restaurants, clothing, and groceries in the vicinity.
No matter whether the capitalists’ investments are rational or not, the fact remains that they’ve driven the rapid growth of Austria’s economy.
Economic growth implies a rapid increase in fiscal revenues, and when the government has money, everyone wants a piece of the budget. The Ministry of War just seems to have particularly big ambitions.
Finance Minister Karl remained unfazed and said, “Expanding the reserves to two million can’t be done all at once, can it? Given the current situation, even if we add 200,000 reserves each year and subtract over-age personnel, it will still take a decade to complete.
Your ‘Grand Reserve Strategy’ budget, you can actually remove one zero from the end, and you can squeeze out a few million guilders on your own.”
Indeed, none of them are easy to deal with. No matter how Prince Windisch-Gr?tz tries to conceal it, this weakness has been exposed.
Prince Windisch-Gr?tz explained, “We can’t put it that way. The international situation is highly complex, and should Russia decide to intervene and disrupt the balance, we must take action and enhance our military strength as effectively as possible to ensure the security of the Austrian Empire.
There are many ways to increase the size of our reserve forces. It’s not necessary to wait for soldiers to retire; we can organize simple military training for young and able individuals.
In the event of war, they can become qualified soldiers in just one or two months, which is much faster than recruiting and training entirely new soldiers from scratch.”
Karl thought for a moment and said, “This approach is not bad, but it’s too costly. Even if the Russians take action, the war is unlikely to end quickly, and the Ottoman Empire is no pushover.
Based on past experience, the shortest war will still take two to three years, and if it drags on, a ten or eight-year conflict is not out of the question.
When the time comes, you can do it as you wish. Rest assured, once there’s an international shift in circumstances, the government’s focus will shift to the military, and there won’t be any problems with how you want to expand.”
Franz had encountered these situations many times, and essentially every year before the fiscal budget discussions, there would be a showdown, and Karl was often at the center of the debate.
“All right, we have time to discuss the financial issues in the annual budget. You can go and deliberate further. Let’s first discuss the proposed reserve plan from the Army. Is it feasible?”
Prime Minister Felix replied, “Your Majesty, establishing a large reserve force is indeed crucial for our national defense. Especially in our future strategies, being able to mobilize a substantial army in the shortest time possible can minimize risks.”
Franz knew that they were preparing to adopt a Russian-style human wave tactic. In the era of matchlocks, having a large number of soldiers on the battlefield does provide an advantage.
In terms of population, Austria was comparable to France. Except for that eccentric Russian Bear, competing with numbers on the European continent was a viable strategy for the Austrian Empire.
“Support!”
“Support!”
……
On this issue, everyone quickly reached a consensus, reaffirming the practicality of the principle that more people meant more strength.
Franz asked with seriousness, “So, my Minister of War, how do we ensure the combat effectiveness of such a massive army?”
They couldn’t simply treat the soldiers as cannon fodder because Austria wasn’t Russia, and there were obligations to provide compensation for soldiers who die in battle.
Franz didn’t believe that talking to the soldiers about patriotism and enthusiasm was the solution. Instead of discussing high-minded theories, he was more interested in practical measures.
It would be better to simply tell them that winning will earn them land, money, spoils of war, noble titles... these tangible rewards are more reliable.
Prince Windisch-Gr?tz responded, “Your Majesty, one of the most critical aspects of ensuring the army’s combat effectiveness is the officers. The Army is planning to increase the number of officers and provide two deputy positions to frontline unit officers.
During wartime, this would enable us to rapidly expand our forces to one million, allowing us to gain an advantage at the outset of the war.”
Franz nodded in agreement. Given the current international situation, a decisive initial strike in a war often led to a swift conclusion.
The Kingdom of Prussia’s limited resources meant they could only make one strong effort, and if that failed, they’d be unable to mount another one in the short term. As for the French, a major defeat on the battlefield would likely lead to political upheaval.
As long as Austria didn’t engage in the foolish venture of invading mainland France, a new French government would find itself mired in internal strife. Once their internal conflicts were resolved, the opportunity might have already passed them by.
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