Chapter 152: Billowing Clouds
No European country really wants to see the unification of the German region, whether it’s the “Big Three Cabinet” jointly proposed by Bavaria and Prussia, or Austria’s proposal for a “Federal Cabinet.” These are not the outcomes the great powers want to see.
The arrival of Franz, like the flutter of a butterfly’s wings, has also affected European history. The attitude of the Russians has shifted, and they are no longer interested in maintaining the status quo in Germany but would rather see the German Confederation directly split apart.
This sentiment is shared by the British and French as well. Having experienced the tumultuous events of the 1848 revolutions, they understand the dangers of nationalism.
Austria’s successful reforms have raised concerns among these powers as they fear that binding the German region together might inadvertently lead to the resurrection of the Holy Roman Empire someday in the future.
The best choice is to divide into three parts: Austria, Prussia, Bavaria, and the remaining member states unite to form separate nations, or dissolve the German Federal Council to allow these states to become independent.
Independence?
This is the 19th century, not the 21st century. It’s an era characterized by colonialism, where the law of the jungle prevails.
Don’t be deceived by the apparent lack of effectiveness of the German Confederation; in reality, the Federation’s existence guarantees their national security.
Without the protection of the German Confederation, these German states in the region could be annihilated in an instant.
Prussia seeks expansion, the French seek expansion, and Austria similarly desires expansion. Due to the balance of power within the Confederation, Prussia cannot act against them, the French are deterred from aggression, and Austria refrains from taking action.
The complex international situation is the reason for the existence of the German Confederation, a peculiar entity emerging after the fall of the Holy Roman Empire.
The smaller states band together for mutual support, and Bavaria becomes the natural leader, tasked with leading the collective resistance against Prussia and Austria.
Franz considered for a moment and said, “Continue to increase our penetration into Bavaria. We can’t sway the higher echelons of the Bavarian government, but we can start by gaining the support of some of the mid-level and lower-level officials.”
Winning hearts and minds also requires a cost. The upper levels of the Bavarian government may be resistant to their offers, but the mid-level and lower-level officials are more amenable. Offering them some benefits can easily change their stance.
Felix proposed, “Your Majesty, we should establish an organization for the unification of Germany, specifically tasked with wooing individuals from various sectors of society and undermining the determination of other countries to resist Austria.
Our strategy for the Southern German States should prioritize political persuasion, with military measures as a last resort. Apart from the hardliners who must be dealt with, we should try to win over the rest as much as possible.
Bavaria is an essential component because, due to its geopolitical importance, it wields considerable influence in Southern Germany.
If a war for unification were to break out, and we could swiftly occupy Bavaria, then it’s highly likely that the remaining states would surrender without putting up a fight.”
Franz knew that winning over individuals from various sectors of society was a front, and the real target was to court the lower-ranking nobility, especially the military nobility. If they sided with Austria, the war for unification would become much easier.
Franz nodded and said, “Then let’s establish the German Unification Committee as an independent civilian organization dedicated to the cause of German unification, without any overt connections to Austria.”
Such an organization certainly shouldn’t be linked to Austria, both to avoid diplomatic complications and because the means and methods of recruitment would likely be more clandestine than they appeared on the surface.
Coercion and temptation could be considered relatively harmonious methods. When necessary, they might even need to employ assassins to eliminate stubborn elements, a responsibility that would likely fall to extremist nationalist elements.
These extremists might not mind bearing that burden; it’s not like they’d be blamed for any wrongdoing. At most, they’d face some public criticism for the time being. However, once unification was achieved, they would become the heroes of Germany.
……
The game of diplomacy has begun. In this era, the problems of the German region are not limited to the internal affairs of the German states; the attitudes of the great powers are also crucial.
The primary players are Britain, France, and Russia, and especially the positions of France and Russia are of paramount importance since these two nations have the capability to intervene militarily.
However, it’s not yet the time for a showdown. The Prussian government is primarily seeking to demonstrate to the public that they support the idea of a unified Germany, in an attempt to restore their damaged reputation. This doesn’t necessarily mean they are giving up on their ambitions in the German region and truly endorsing Bavaria’s “Big Three.”
Isn’t the Bavarian government aware of this issue? It’s clear that they must be aware, as otherwise, there wouldn’t be any opposition to joining forces with Prussia.
Unfortunately, Maximilian I succumbed to temptation and saw only the benefits without recognizing the underlying dangers. Walking a diplomatic tightrope is precarious, and Bavaria lacks a skilled diplomat who can see the bigger picture.
In historical conflicts like the Austro-Prussian War, Bavaria wanted to be a mere spectator and didn’t deliver the promised 100,000 troops in a timely manner. This directly led to the decisive battle, where Prussia had a 25% greater force than Austria.
Certainly, Bavaria wasn’t the only one letting down their allies. Most of Austria’s allies, except for Hanover, were easily defeated by Prussia.
If it weren’t for Italy, who also turned out to be a pig teammate, the Austro-Prussian War might have ended even faster. Perhaps there was too much trust in their allies. The Austrian government failed to prepare adequately, didn’t mobilize the nation, and only sent 300,000 troops directly into battle.
Clearly, from a strategic perspective, King Maximilian I’s vision was lacking. He didn’t anticipate that the Austrian government would give up so easily after a significant defeat, without a serious fight against Prussia.
After reviewing history, Franz realized that Austria and Prussia were the same kind, both sides possessing equally subpar skills when it came to selecting teammates.
In retrospect, Franz realized that from the Austro-Prussian War to the end of World War II, there were consistently pig teammates by his side.
……
Paris.
After the Napoleonic Wars, the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs had rarely been so active. Austria, Prussia, and Bavaria were all seeking their diplomatic support.
President Napoleon was delighted, as he was interested in any opportunity to expand French influence.
Without a second thought, President Napoleon knew who to support. Splitting Germany into three and having Bavaria lead the small states against Austria and Prussia was the best choice for the French.
Unfortunately, at this time, France wasn’t suited to be in the limelight. They hadn’t resolved their domestic issues, and other European countries were very wary of them.
Talking big in diplomacy was one thing, but if they actually went to interfere in German affairs, it was highly likely that Austria and Prussia would join forces to push them back.
In any case, now, whatever the President supports, the parliament opposes, and whatever the parliament supports, the President vetoes. Louis Napoleon Bonaparte could simply muddle along.
As for the French parliament, their foreign policy was even more conservative, often gauging the reactions of the British.
……
London.
Upon hearing the news of the German Confederation’s plan to establish a cabinet of responsibility, Prime Minister John Russell’s initial reaction was that it was impossible, and his second reaction was that it must be dismantled before it could be formed.
The balance of power on the European continent has always been a top priority for the British, and the unification of Germany would create a giant in central Europe.
The second-largest industrial nation in Europe, the second-largest territorial power in Europe, the largest economy in Europe, the most powerful land army in Europe, and the most populous country in Europe... Just thinking about it is frightening.
Prime Minister John Russell expressed his incredulity, saying, “What’s happening? How is it that overnight, I feel like this world has become so unfamiliar? Can someone tell me why the German Confederation might actually unify!?”
Foreign Secretary Palmerston explained, “Prime Minister, it’s not so easy for the German Confederation to unify. The ‘cabinet of responsibility’ is just a product of the struggles between the three states of Austria, Prussia, and Bavaria. It’s a cabinet that is destined to have no real power.”
Minister of State Edward furrowed his brow and said, “But the mere existence of this cabinet will disrupt the balance in Germany. Regardless of who wins or loses, as long as a cabinet of responsibility appears, the path to German unification takes a big step forward.
Especially with the ‘Three Country Cabinet,’ if Austria reaches a compromise with Prussia and Bavaria, it’s quite likely that the German region could truly unite, at least in terms of politics and military alliance.”
Everyone is involved in politics, so they naturally know that the fewer people there are, the easier it is to reach an agreement. Conversely, Austria’s proposal for all states to form a cabinet together reduces the perceived threat.
With over thirty states in the German Confederation, each state requiring representation in the cabinet, such a large assembly is bound to lead to frequent disputes.
Is there a real possibility of an Austro-Prussian-Bavarian alliance?
From an analysis of interests, the answer is: yes. From a practical perspective, the answer is: no.
If Prussia is willing to give up its ambition to unify Germany, then Franz is also willing to give up his plans to annex Southern Germany.
This is somewhat reminiscent of the Three Jin States alliance during the Spring and Autumn Period. Once Zhao, Wei, and Han form an alliance, they could dominate the other states. In the present situation, the Austro-Prussian-Bavarian alliance is somewhat similar.
The difference is that once this alliance is established, both Prussia and Bavaria will have no opportunities for expansion on the European continent.
Bavaria is relatively small and sandwiched between Austria, France, and Prussia. After the alliance is formed, their security will be guaranteed, allowing them to focus on agricultural development and other areas, which aligns with their interests.
Austria can expand into the Balkans and also benefit from the human resources of the German region. This will help overcome the disadvantage of a smaller core population and allow Austria to focus more on overseas colonial expansion.
Moreover, given Austria’s size and influence, it’s only a matter of time before they achieve dominance within the alliance. Franz has no reason to oppose such an alliance.
The same cannot be said for Prussia because, despite its strong military power, the Kingdom of Prussia is not particularly large in terms of territory and population.
Maintaining a substantial army while trying to develop a navy is indeed a difficult balance, and Prussia’s resources may not allow for both a strong army and a strong navy.
In theory, after the alliance is formed, Prussia shouldn’t have to worry much about its security on the continent and could reduce its land forces to focus on developing a navy and overseas colonial territories.
However, the problem lies with the Prussian Junker aristocracy, who are unlikely to give up their own interests for the sake of the country’s interests.
The issue is clear to Franz, but it doesn’t mean that everyone sees it that way, especially maritime powers like Britain.
From their perspective, why would you take risks on the European continent when you can easily gain benefits from overseas?
In the current international situation, there is almost no chance of success for Prussia to expand on the European continent, according to the British perspective. They believe the Prussian government wouldn’t be so unwise as to pursue continental expansion in such circumstances.
Prime Minister John Russell decisively stated, “Mr. Palmerston, the enemies of the British Empire are already numerous enough. We don’t need to add another great adversary.
Right now, I don’t care how your Ministry of Foreign Affairs handles it; the key is to prevent the emergence of a unified government in the German region, even if it’s just in name.
It’s best to have the German Federal Council (Bundestag) split up. I always have a feeling that having them gather together will eventually become a big problem for us.”
Palmerston confidently replied, “Don’t worry, Prime Minister. The German region is impossible to unify, and there are more than just us who want to break them apart!”
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