Chapter 147
On February 21, 1850, under diplomatic pressure from Britain, France, and Russia, a treaty of peace between Prussia and Denmark was signed at Berlin.
The Prussian government recognizes the sovereignty of the Kingdom of Denmark over the two duchies of Schleswig and Holstein, officially ending the Prussian-Danish War.
Prior to the signing of the treaty, under strong pressure from the Russians, the Prussian army had already withdrawn from the Kingdom of Denmark, and both the duchies of Schleswig and Holstein had been abandoned.
After the treaty was signed, the delegation from the German Confederation angrily left the scene, refusing to acknowledge Denmark’s sovereignty over the duchies of Schleswig and Holstein.
The Prussian government was indeed tricked in this situation, and they were not only deceived by the various states within the German Confederation but also by the Russians. It seems that Nicholas I was using hands-on actions to warn the Prussians to be more cooperative.
During the negotiations, initially, the German Confederation delegation supported Prussia and had heated arguments with the Russian delegation. However, due to the unified stance of Britain, France, and Russia, the German Confederation delegation quickly backed down and accepted the mediation by these three powers.
Originally, the plan was for everyone to sign the treaty together, but after the Prussian government signed it, the German Confederation delegation immediately left, shifting all responsibility onto the Prussian government.
Yes, they left abruptly. The so-called “angry departure” was likely just a show for the public, as the German Confederation delegation did not sign the treaty, so they could present it however they wanted.
The Prussians mistakenly believed that Britain, France, and Russia would pressure the German Confederation to sign the treaty, thereby resolving the Schleswig-Holstein issue once and for all. However, the Russian delegation left the negotiations satisfied, and without the Russians, Britain and France had little interest in continuing.
Since the only bordering states of Schleswig-Holstein were Prussia and the two duchies themselves, the other German states’ slogans and declarations were essentially empty words.
In this matter, the attitude of the German Confederation was not significant. In fact, this international organization couldn’t be considered a single country, and each state within it had the freedom to conduct its own foreign affairs. They did not have the authority to sign diplomatic treaties on behalf of everyone.
Under the influence of the Prussian-Danish Berlin Treaty, the Kingdom of Prussia’s prestige in the German region suffered greatly, and they would be unable to compete with Austria for leadership in the German territories.
At this time, outside the Prussian embassies in various German states, crowds gathered to demand the return of donations, protesting and demonstrating with signs demanding repayment, occasionally even throwing stones.
The public opinion campaign was a success. When the donations were initially raised, newspapers had reported on the Prussian government’s strong stance. Some of it was true, but most was embellished by the editors.
However, these details didn’t matter; the public believed it was all true. They had been promised a fight to the death against the Russians, but when the war actually began, Prussia backed down. The disillusioned public was venting their anger in this manner.
Money was definitely not going to be returned. The Prussian government was flat broke, and no matter how harshly they were criticized, they couldn’t produce the money.
In the end, various governments had to send troops to protect the Prussian embassies and provide for their basic needs. In the midst of public outrage, Prussian embassy staff dared not go out to buy groceries.
After thoroughly undermining Prussia, the friendly relations between Austria and the German states also began to cool.
The German states, led by Bavaria, did not want to see German unification and aimed to play a balancing act between Prussia and Austria.
The closeness of these German states to Austria was not only influenced by religious and political factors but also related to the expansionist ambitions of the Kingdom of Prussia.
Prussia, originally a small state, had grown into the second-largest state in Germany, and its territorial expansion raised concerns among neighboring states.
This rapid territorial expansion in just a few decades contributed to suspicions and wariness among other German states.
The diplomacy of the Metternich Era still held value, as it made the German states believe that Austria had no ambitions of unifying Germany. This led them to underestimate the shift in Austria’s foreign policy and the changes in its national strategy.
The recent revelations about Prussia’s involvement in the Frankfurt Assembly indeed caused a stir, and Austria used this evidence to rally support from other German states.
Now that the Kingdom of Prussia has been suppressed, the stance of the Kingdom of Bavaria has once again changed. They do not want to see an imbalance of power between Prussia and Austria, leading to a situation where one dominates.
In a normal situation, the second and third powers would unite to counterbalance the first power. Austria’s ability to form an alliance with the third power to suppress the second in diplomacy was already a significant victory.
With things returning to a more balanced state, the Bavarian government’s diplomatic stance underwent another change.
The influence of the 1848 revolutions led to the abdication of King Ludwig I of Bavaria. Before his abdication, on March 6th, he issued a declaration promising that the Bavarian government would work for the cause of freedom and unity in Germany.
This declaration set the stage for a political challenge for his son, Maximilian I, who succeeded him as king.
Compared to the idea of German unification under Prussian leadership, the nationalist forces within Bavaria were more inclined toward a German unification led by Austria, which shared their religious beliefs.
In history, Maximilian initially supported the constitution of the Frankfurt Assembly and advocated excluding Austria from the German region. However, to maintain stability in his rule, he later shifted toward a pro-Austrian stance in 1851.
Regardless of their inclination, the Bavarian government’s ultimate goal is to establish a tripartite power structure known as “Aus-Pru-Bav” in which Austria, Prussia, and Bavaria are all prominent players. However, Bavaria’s actual strength falls far short of Austria and Prussia, making it unable to achieve this on its own.
The Kingdom of Bavaria’s move towards alignment with Prussia is seen favorably by the Austrian Western Expansionists Faction. Taking harsh measures against their ally would have detrimental consequences for Austria’s reputation, and the Austrian government is also mindful of its image.
If Austria is unable to take decisive action against these regional states, even if it succeeds in unifying Southern Germany, these states will continue to exist independently and potentially challenge Austria’s central authority.
The primary among these regional states is Bavaria, as the other smaller states are relatively weaker and would not dare to disrupt the central government without Bavaria, their leading figure.
The emergence of King Maximilian I, who is pro-Prussian, undoubtedly provides an opportunity for the Austrian government to annex the Kingdom of Bavaria.
Now, it depends on his actions and whether he can create a pretext for Austria to legitimately abolish the Bavarian monarchy.
In the office of the Austrian Prime Minister, Felix spoke in a solemn tone: “Austria's alliance with Bavaria has become an obstacle to our goal of unifying Germany. It is imperative to terminate this alliance, but Austria cannot be seen as the one breaking it.
Ideally, we should make Bavaria’s government voluntarily betray the alliance. Timing for the termination of this alliance is crucial; it cannot be too early or too late.”
Finding the right balance in this situation is indeed a challenging task. If the alliance is terminated too early, Austria’s influence within the German Confederation may be significantly affected due to geopolitical reasons, and the Holy Roman Alliance could also be impacted.
If Austria initiates a war of unification while both sides maintain their alliance, there’s a chance that Maximilian I could have declared Bavaria’s allegiance to another power directly.
Anyone in Bavaria can be the leading figure in that except for the king as the cost of this would be too great.
If such a scenario had actually unfolded, it would have been a significant predicament for the Austrian government.
Taking a reference from the historical German Empire, the Kingdom of Bavaria retained independent political rights and could recruit its own army.
They also had the power to veto unfavorable terms in the German Federal Council, the highest legislative body in the German Confederation, along with several other states. The central government had little control over this semi-sovereign state within a state.
Metternich, with a furrowed brow, said, “There will always be excuses to be found, but the question is, can our plan succeed? If it backfires, the favorable situation of the Austrian Empire will be lost.”
He didn’t like taking risks and was not in favor of the Russian-Austrian Secret Treaty. However, he couldn’t impose his will anymore; the current Austrian government was not a one-man show.
Felix thought for a moment and said, “Mr. Metternich, the risk in Austria unifying Southern Germany doesn’t lie in the military aspect. If we were to march under the banner of German unification, there’s a significant likelihood that the forces of these individual states would defect to us as most of them actually support German unification.
If the enemy’s soldiers lose their will to fight, our chances of military failure are almost zero. The real risk lies in diplomacy, and in this regard, you have the most influence. The Russian-Austrian Secret Treaty has already been signed, and barring any unexpected developments, the Russians will stand by our side.
The British are too distant to pose a real threat. The danger comes from two directions: France to the west and Prussia to the north. If we can manage to deal with one of them, we’ll be victorious.
If the Austrian government can make concessions in other areas, do you think it’s possible to persuade the French to support us? We don’t need their active support; just having the French government remain neutral would suffice.
Even causing internal divisions within the French government, delaying their decision-making, would allow us to join forces with the Russians and overpower Prussia!”
Metternich fell into deep thought. It’s easier said than done when it comes to influencing diplomatic outcomes, especially when a nation’s destiny is at stake. There are many factors to consider, and careful planning is essential.
After some consideration, Metternich furrowed his brow and said, “Making significant concessions in the Italian region, promising to cede all territories west of the Rhine, could give us a threefold chance of securing French support and a sixfold chance of French neutrality. As for delaying the French government’s decision-making process, with the current French administration, even if we do nothing at all, they would likely drag the issue on for several months.”
In Metternich’s view, Felix seemed to have lost his senses. Is it really a good idea to be neighbors with the French?
In the future, Austria would have to allocate a significant portion of its defense budget to guard against the French threat, and that’s precisely why the Russians were allowing Austria to swallow up Southern Germany.
Moreover, these so-called strategic assessments are hardly reliable. Who knows when the French government might change its stance again?
Finance Minister Karl expressed his discontent, “Prime Minister, can we discuss this issue later? Let’s not forget our current task. Until we sort out our domestic matters, I am against any expansionist actions.”
Initially, the Austrian government’s finances were quite comfortable. In 1848, they confiscated a significant portion of the aristocratic wealth and extorted a substantial sum during the Austro-Sardinian War.
However, since the Russian-Austrian Secret Treaty, the Austrian government has been observing Russia’s military preparations and has predicted that the continental balance of power in Europe is on the brink of disruption. Consequently, these funds have been earmarked as a war reserve.
This situation has forced the Ministry of Finance to manage its budget meticulously, focusing on balancing income and expenses.
Recently, a dispute over the course of action erupted within the palace, and was not resolved until His Majesty the Emperor suggested a purge of the bureaucracy, effectively ending the disagreement.
The original topic was the purge of the bureaucracy, but now it has been diverted due to news of Bavaria’s foreign policy shift.
Without a doubt, Prime Minister Felix wants to gain support for his western expansion strategy, but unfortunately, not everyone is interested in expansion.
Felix laughed and said, “I’m sorry, that was my mistake! Recently, my mind has been full of issues related to the Southern German region, and I couldn’t help but digress. Let’s continue with today’s topic, the specific plan for cleaning up the bureaucratic ranks.”
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