Chapter 141: A Headache of a Strategy
What Franz saw as a problem wasn’t seen as a problem by the people of this era.
When analyzing the construction costs, the maximum difference between these four standards was only little, meaning that construction costs weren’t the primary determining factor.
Indeed, during this era, railway gauges were generally larger. The first Russian railway gauge was even 1829mm, and it was only later that bureaucrats changed it to 1524mm based on the recommendations of American engineers, all in pursuit of profit.
How much cost was saved by shrinking from six feet to five feet?
It saved about 3 rubles in the budget, although given the practices of the Russian bureaucrats, it probably didn’t save much money in the end.
The standard gauge was something the British promoted worldwide. Starting in 1846, with John Bull’s introduction of the law, the 1435mm gauge became the standard for both Britain and its colonies from that time onwards.
However, India soon became an exception as the standard gauge couldn’t meet their transportation needs. The British were pragmatic – if it didn’t fit, they would make it larger. As a result, most of India's railways adopted the 1676mm standard gauge, and there were also various other non-standard gauge railways.
After nearly a century of British efforts, the 1435mm gauge system became the international standard gauge by the mid-20th century. Originally, John Bull’s intention was to promote British technology.
Whether there was an aim to restrict the freight capacity of continental countries is unknown, but Franz didn’t believe John Bull would be that benevolent.
In the mid-19th century, with the technology available at that time, wide-gauge railways had higher freight capacity, safety, and speed compared to narrow-gauge railways. This was quite different from the 21st century.
In later years, technology advancements addressed stability issues in narrow-gauge railways, increasing their freight capacity and speed. However, this was not achievable in the era Franz was dealing with.
Maintenance costs for railways were actually quite similar. Once a railway was constructed, the structure itself was essentially the same. The difference was primarily in the length of the sleepers (railroad ties), so the notion that narrow-gauge railways were simpler to maintain was not entirely accurate.
The issue of land area is indeed a bit of a stretch. Who leaves a buffer zone on both sides of their railway tracks? Are they going to utilize the land underneath the trains?
Let’s not dwell on that; it’s practically turning into a lecture.
“Your Majesty, since we want to standardize the gauge, why not invite the Holy Roman Economic Alliance to join us and establish a common standard together? Creating a unified standard among all of us might be a better approach,” suggested Metternich.
“Do we have enough time? Our railways have already begun construction,” Prime Minister Felix asked in a concerned tone.
“There’s no problem, railway construction has just begun. Making a decision within a year will not affect the construction progress,” replied the Minister of Railways, Stein.
Railway construction in this era is indeed quite slow. They’ve just started demolishing, and after that, they’ll need to excavate and fill, and it will take at least a year or two to reach the trackbed construction stage.
“Then let’s get everyone together to work on this. The Ministry of Railways will be responsible for selecting the optimal solution as our recommendation, and we’ll try to persuade everyone to adopt it.
If there’s too much disagreement, we’ll present these different standards and let everyone vote. Anyway, all these options are suitable for Austria,” Franz said indifferently.
“Let’s go with 1676mm then. This standard should already meet our needs, and it ensures safety,” Stein quickly provided the answer.
As for international railway standards, did they even exist in this era? Who would recognize them?
Keep in mind that the British had to switch to a wider gauge during the construction of the Western Railway because of safety concerns due to their technology at the time. They only reverted to the standard gauge by the late 19th century once technology had improved.
If the Holy Roman Economic Alliance were to establish new standards, it could potentially result in two competing international railway gauge standards in the future.
Setting aside other factors, if the railway standards in the Southern German States are unified, would Prussia follow suit or not?
If Prussia doesn’t follow suit, it would lead to economic division between the two sides. If it does, it would unify the standard system in Central and Southern Europe, which would undoubtedly have significant geopolitical implications.
As an emperor, many decisions must consider political and military aspects. For example, if the Austrian Empire were to unify railway standards with Russia, Franz would immediately be cautious.
The reasons need not be stated, as any country neighboring Russia must exercise caution. Even if they are allies, it’s essential to remain vigilant.
During this period, the major European powers all had their strengths and weaknesses, and Austria was no exception. Social reforms had just begun, and Austria hadn’t yet fully converted them into national power.
The British Empire wasn’t at its zenith either. India wasn’t completely under their control, Australia and New Zealand still had indigenous influences, in South Africa they had only established a few coastal footholds, Southeast Asian colonization was ongoing and Egypt was under French dominance. The great colonial empire had yet to complete its puzzle.
The French were preoccupied with internal struggles, and Russian internal contradictions were merely suppressed, waiting for an external force to trigger them.
The Kingdom of Prussia also relied on external wars to divert social tensions, and internal reforms were just beginning. While they appeared to have strong military power, their domestic economy was struggling.
Spain continued its decline, with no social reforms initiated yet. On the other side of the ocean, the United States, at this time, was just an agricultural nation with a population of slightly over 20 million. Its primary economic income came from exporting cotton, and the North-South divide was already emerging as a contentious issue.
Thinking about this, Franz suddenly had an idea: should he consider an opportunity to get involved in South Africa?
South Africa was vast, and the British had only established colonial control along the coast. The interior regions remained unclaimed, except for Cape Colony. This could be a potential opportunity to expand Austria’s influence.
The British are currently preoccupied and may not pay much attention to more regions in Africa. There are numerous entry points, and if Austria joins in now, there might be an opportunity to claim a piece of the pie.
If necessary, Austria could start by entering Namibia, then occupy Botswana as a strategic move. Alternatively, they could enter through Tanzania, occupy Zambia, and Zimbabwe, and then advance into the heartland of South Africa.
In theory, these plans sound good, but in practice, it might not be so straightforward. Africa in this era is far from welcoming. It’s plagued by diseases, dangerous creatures, and venomous pests. To colonize these lands, one must be prepared to face a significantly high mortality rate.
In theory, the mortality rate may not be excessively high, as long as precautions are taken. If it can be kept below 10%, it might be manageable.
That’s easier said than done. When it comes to implementation, people may not be as brave as they initially think. Most would prefer to stay safe when they have a comfortable life.
However, when there are strong economic incentives, like the discovery of gold in South Africa, people’s courage can suddenly surge. Diseases, dangerous creatures, and wild animals become secondary concerns.
The unfortunate reality is that once gold is discovered, the opportunity might slip away from Austria. Unless they could somehow occupy these territories in advance and form alliances, like with the Boers, they might not stand a chance against the British.
Despite rational thinking, once an idea like this takes root, it can be difficult to get rid of.
Well, since it will be quite some time before the discovery of gold in South Africa, they can always lend their support to the domestic African colonization factions. Let them go ahead and establish their strongholds.
By the time the Anglo-Boer War erupts, Austria will likely have risen in power. At that point, whether they support the Boers to cause trouble for John Bull or participate in dividing the spoils, they’ll need a solid foothold.
The timing for action must be chosen carefully, preferably when the British are too preoccupied to respond, so they can suddenly create a fait accompli.
In this era, the international laws regarding unclaimed territories generally favor the first occupier, provided they can maintain control.
It was still early; there was no need to rush. Franz wasn’t one to act impulsively. At this point, it seemed prudent to promote the construction of the Suez Canal.
While Austria may not possess the capacity to unilaterally dominate the canal, with some strategic persuasion, transforming it into an internationally managed waterway becomes a plausible task.
Historically, during the excavation of the Suez Canal, the British government fiercely opposed the project, fearing it would jeopardize their maritime trade supremacy.
Even the British populace had reservations, questioning whether the canal could accommodate large vessels, resulting in the shares of the canal company receiving minimal attention in the British market.
On the contrary, it sold quite well in France, and there were even financial difficulties during the construction of the canal, leading to a temporary halt in the project. It was on the verge of becoming abandoned. Ultimately, it was only with the intervention of the Rothschild family that the canal was completed successfully.
Historically, the Suez Canal became navigable in 1869. Over such a lengthy period, Austria might have developed a noteworthy naval presence already.
While other aspects may be uncertain, becoming shareholders in the canal company seems achievable.
In history, France succumbed to British pressure and faced financial troubles, forcing them to relinquish control. However, if it were a joint venture between France and Austria leading the Suez Canal, the outcome might have been quite different.
The specific course of action was causing Franz a headache. The relationships between the great powers were exceedingly complex, characterized by a mix of cooperation and backstabbing.
Today, they might join forces in one place, and tomorrow, they could be at odds in another.
Reducing conflicts would require something akin to the Austro-Russian Secret Treaty, where everyone delineated their spheres of influence in advance to meet their respective needs.
However, that was simply inconceivable. Austria had only made concessions to Russia because their core strategies didn’t clash.
Franz also knew that once Russia’s strategy was in motion, it would face a joint assault from three great powers - Britain, France, and the Ottoman Empire. Russia’s national strength wouldn’t be able to withstand such a protracted war. Failure was inevitable.
Unless Britain and France initiated an invasion of Russia, where Austria would be drawn into the conflict by the alliance. However, just looking at the map made it clear that unless Russia took the lead, it would be difficult for Britain and France to attack Russia.
Obviously, this kind of situation couldn’t happen a second time. Austria had to choose a major power as an ally because being a wavering neutral country could easily lead to its downfall.
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