Chapter 134: Walking on a Tightrope
Everyone was in a dilemma. Franz let out a sigh of relief; the Prussian-Danish War was not going to end anytime soon, which meant he had enough time to fill up the hole.
But you can’t hide the truth forever. If the hole isn’t filled, even if they try to pin the blame on the Prussians, it won’t be a reliable solution!
What if the truth comes out one day? Would Emperor Franz’s reputation survive?
Misappropriation and embezzlement are entirely different concepts. The former can be explained as normal capital operation for the bank, as long as the money is returned on time. The latter is an eternal stain on his reputation.
While Prussia and Russia were preoccupied with their conflict, the European powers were not idle.
The French, apart from occasionally expressing their opinions on international matters to make their presence known, were primarily focused on their internal struggles. Even their overseas colonial expansion was affected.
The British were quite busy, intensifying their encroachment on India while expanding their colonial reach in Southeast Asia. They also launched an invasion of New Zealand...
The British Colonial Empire was nearing completion, with almost all regions except the African continent either already incorporated or in the process of being included in the British Colonial Empire.
Everyone was very busy, which created an opportunity for Austria.
While the world’s attention was focused on the Prussian-Danish battlefield, on April 15, 1849, Austria, along with Naples, the Papal States, Tuscany, Bavaria, Württemberg, Baden, Hesse-Darmstadt, and other states, established the Holy Roman Economic Alliance in Rome.
European public opinion was in an uproar. Fortunately, Franz didn’t establish the headquarters in Vienna; otherwise, the political impact would have been even greater.
The most intense reaction came from Prussia, which had been standing up to Russia in the name of German unification, only to find Austria undermining their efforts.
Apart from the Kingdom of Prussia, most of the major states in the German regions joined the Holy Roman Economic Alliance led by Austria. This meant that Prussia had lost its influence over German affairs.
Under the influence of the Holy Roman Alliance, the idea of Greater Germany experienced a resurgence. Many nationalists believed that economic cooperation would facilitate national unity.
Interestingly, even within Prussia, there were individuals advocating for joining the alliance led by Austria. As for the German Customs Union, its historical mission had already been fulfilled, and it could be discarded.
This change posed a significant dilemma for Frederick William IV. Nationalism was a double-edged sword, as those who supported Prussian unification under the banner of Lesser Germany could just as easily lend their support to Austria’s vision of Greater Germany.
As for the expansion into the Italian territories, the nationalists didn’t seem to mind. In their view, as long as the German nation held a dominant position, the larger the resulting empire, the better.
“Prime Minister, what are the attitudes of other countries toward Austria’s ambitions?” Frederick William IV inquired expectantly.
Joseph von Radowitz pondered for a moment before responding, “The British government has issued a diplomatic note to Austria, opposing Austria’s alliance actions and strongly condemning Austria for breaking the principles of free trade.
The French government has protested against Austria’s establishment of an economic alliance that excludes other countries, but they haven’t taken further action at the moment.
The Spanish have expressed a keen interest in the ongoing developments, while most European countries remain neutral on the matter. The Russians have yet to make a statement.”
No doubt, everyone is too occupied at the moment to bother with Austria.
The British have not strongly intervened in the Prussian-Danish War, and similarly, they don’t have the capacity to meddle in Austria’s alliance actions. Without the major European powers taking the lead, their influence on the European continent is limited.
The French, on the other hand, need to settle their domestic factions first. Otherwise, amidst internal political struggles, the French government won’t be able to accomplish much in terms of opposing actions for the sake of opposition.
Frederick William IV was extremely frustrated. In his view, the most capable of intervening in Austria, the Russians, were conveniently kept occupied with their help, making it highly unlikely for the Russian government to simultaneously interfere with Prussia and Austria.
Without a military threat, can Austria be subdued solely through protests? Frederick William IV shook his head. Prussia faced greater diplomatic pressure, but they had managed to withstand it as well.
Austria had only established an economic alliance, and most European countries were adopting a “not my problem” stance, choosing to remain bystanders.
“Haven’t the British taken any action?” Frederick William IV inquired with concern.
……
London.
As the world’s leading troublemaker, how could the British just stand by and watch Austria create an alliance?
After all, the Holy Roman Economic Alliance consisted of a significant portion of Germany, most of Italy, and the Austrian Empire—a formidable economic powerhouse. In terms of economic size, it was the largest in Europe.
Although most of these regions still operated under semi-feudal, semi-capitalist systems, and their own industries were not particularly advanced, the British had a small but significant market share in the area. They couldn't afford to miss out on this opportunity, no matter how small the market might be.
Even a mosquito is still meat no matter how tiny of a piece it is, and giving up was not John Bull’s style.
“What’s wrong? Why is the Russian response so sluggish this time?” Prime Minister John Russell asked with confusion.
Palmerston pondered for a moment before saying, “They might be hesitating. The Prussian-Danish War has already tied up a significant portion of their resources. At this point, if they were to intervene in Austria, it might lead to a Prussian-Austrian alliance.
Nicholas I isn’t a fool. Once they take that step, the ‘Three Northern Courts’ system would crumble. As long as they don’t want to find themselves isolated in Europe, they won’t take action against Austria.”
Starting from the “Treaty of Berlin,” Europe entered the era of the “Prussia-Austria-Russia Triumvirate,” where these three nations jointly maintained the Vienna System, even excluding the British from the European mainland.
Now, due to the Prussian-Danish War, there are cracks in the Prussian-Russian relationship, and naturally, the British want to find ways to dismantle this alliance.
Whether it’s encouraging Austria to expand into the Balkans, supporting Austria’s occupation of the Danube River Basin, or allowing Prussia to wage war against Denmark, all of these are part of this plan.
It must be said that this time the Russians have maintained strict secrecy, and they've managed to deceive everyone, leading to many misconceptions.
“The Russians probably never even dreamt that the Prussians would actually hold their ground this time. Now, they’re in a difficult position as well.
However, Austria’s creation of the Holy Roman Economic Alliance is also troublesome. With Metternich in charge, it might be challenging to unite various countries to exert pressure,” Prime Minister John Russell said with a furrowed brow.
Palmerston smiled and said, “Why do we have to pressure Austria to dissolve the alliance? The ones who should be most concerned about its establishment are not us.
Russia, Prussia, France – which one of them isn’t more anxious than us?
Especially the Prussians, they are in a deadlock with the Russians. Originally, Austria was the best mediator, but now, Austria has formed this alliance, and it seems like the Northern Three Courts Alliance might come to an end.
Do we really need to help them continue this alliance?”
With conflicts arising between Prussia and both Russia and Austria, it’s clear that Prussia can’t coexist peacefully in the alliance of the Northern Three Courts.
To dismantle this alliance, the British had indeed put in significant effort, and now they were on the brink of success. Naturally, they wouldn’t want to prolong the life of the alliance.
“It appears to be advantageous for us, but we must remain cautious of Austria. Metternich, that old fox, is a master of balance, and the Habsburg dynasty’s influence runs deep.
We mustn’t allow them to turn this economic alliance into an empire. Otherwise, our interests in the Mediterranean won’t be secure,” cautioned John Russell.
This wasn’t an unfounded concern. Everyone knew that the House of Habsburg excelled at forging marriages, uniting within the framework of alliances, and merging into a single dynasty over generations. The Austrian Empire was a prime example of this.
If Franz were aware of the British intentions, he would likely find it amusing. Forming alliances with the Italian states was acceptable but merging them into the Austrian Empire was a different matter. He wouldn’t want to invite trouble willingly.
“Don’t worry, Prime Minister. The Austrians won’t have the opportunity for that. As long as they dare to take the first step, this alliance will crumble.
On the other hand, the Prussian-Danish War is a concern. The Prussian government is still persisting due to public pressure, and I’m worried they might provoke the Russians. A war could break out between them.
If the Kingdom of Prussia is weakened by the Russians and no longer capable of restraining Austria, Austria might indeed dare to unify the German regions.” Palmerston considered, then said.
In imperial states, analysis often can’t be solely based on interests. If the Tsar gets provoked, there’s a real chance he might go to war regardless of the consequences.
“Prepare for mediation, just in case the situation gets out of control. Once things escalate, put pressure on the Prussian government and force them to compromise,” John Russell said firmly.
There was no choice. Pressuring the Russians through diplomacy was virtually impossible. They had to make use of the soft spot, which was Prussia.
Even though Anglo-Prussian relations were good, it didn’t mean that Britain would unconditionally support Prussia. When it came to interests, building relationships with the British was secondary.
……
Vienna.
Ever since the establishment of the Holy Roman Economic Alliance, Franz had not had a good night’s sleep for several days. It was unnaturally smooth, which seemed abnormal.
The fact that the Russians were not intervening was expected. They had a secret treaty, and if it weren’t for the need for secrecy, the Russians could directly support Austria.
But the behavior of other countries surprised Franz. It was understandable for the neutral small countries; they had no say and were merely bystanders. It was normal for them to watch and enjoy the show.
However, the behavior of Britain and France puzzled Franz.
He could somewhat understand the French government’s position: they had to secure their internal stability first. Austria hadn’t invaded France, so it was challenging for them to rally against Austria.
What surprised him was that the British, apart from protesting, did nothing. According to the earlier analysis, the British should have been forming a coalition with the French and some smaller nations to pressure Austria at this point.
This unexpected turn of events left Franz deeply puzzled. Metternich, their foreign minister, was still in Rome, overseeing the situation. The Foreign Ministry provided two possible explanations for this situation:
Except for a few cabinet members, others are unaware of the contents of the secret agreements between Austria, Britain, France, and Russia, making it impossible for them to conduct a comprehensive analysis.
At this moment, Franz suddenly realized that Austria had signed so many secret treaties in just over a year, which was truly unbelievable.
If it weren’t for Metternich, the foreign minister, overseeing these matters, Franz suspected that the Austrian government would have fallen apart long ago.
Historically, Austria also attempted to walk on a tightrope between Britain, France, and Russia but ultimately failed to maintain the balance, turning all three potential allied nations into enemies.
Just thinking about it sent shivers down Franz’s spine. Despite Austria’s better position compared to historical circumstances, once their diplomatic efforts fell apart, they would quickly find themselves isolated.
The consequences, do they still need to be considered?
Naturally, it’s a matter of treading cautiously, staying low-key, and quietly observing Prussia’s unification of Germany. Then, when the time is right, join forces with them to challenge the world order.
In theory, the reformed Austrian Empire would be much stronger than the historical Austro-Hungarian Empire once all internal reforms are completed. It’s even possible for a German-Austrian alliance to make a comeback.
However, such a scenario is highly unlikely. Franz has prepared for the possibility that if things spiral out of control, Russia and Austria could join forces and face Britain, France, and Prussia.
From a purely military perspective, the chances of outright failure are slim, at most resulting in a mutually destructive conflict. Eventually, when Russia and Austria run out of resources, the war would come to an end.
In history, when Russia faced Britain and France alone and lost in the Crimean War, it wasn’t primarily due to military failure. The main reason was that the Russian government ran out of funds. If they had the financial resources, they could have continued the war.
Losing three hundred thousand troops was like a drop in the bucket for the Russian Bear. Even if that number were multiplied tenfold, they would still have a sufficient pool of reserves.
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