Chapter 130: Russian-Austrian Secret Treaty
While causing trouble for Prussia, Franz acted almost casually, as the Austrian government was not inclined to allocate too many resources to this endeavor. The foremost priority at the moment was still domestic development.
As the Prussian-Danish War erupted once again, negotiations between Russia and Austria also came to a close. After nearly six months of effort, the two countries finally reached an agreement on their respective interests.
On March 21, 1849, Austrian Ambassador to Russia, Wessenberg, and Russian Foreign Minister Karl Nesselrode, signed the “Russia-Austria Trade Agreement” in St. Petersburg.
Treaty Contents:
These hastily drafted commercial trade agreements clearly do not represent the six months of efforts of both governments. What truly deserves mutual attention are the signed secret treaties, including the ‘Russian-Austrian Military Alliance’ and the ‘Russian-Austrian Sphere of Influence Division.’
Contents of the ‘Russian-Austrian Military Alliance’:
Without a doubt, the ‘Russian-Austrian Military Alliance’ was an extension of the ‘Treaty of Berlin Treaty’, and, in fact, it went even further, with the only exception being the absence of Prussia among the contracting parties.
Due to the circumstances of the Prussian-Danish War, Nicholas I had little fondness for the Kingdom of Prussia, and the outbreak of this war marked the end of the ‘Three Northern Courts’ era.
In comparison to the military alliance, the ‘Russian-Austrian Sphere of Influence Division’ served as the cornerstone of the alliance between the two countries, allowing each nation to take what it needed and obtain everything required.
Treaty Provisions:
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The agreement between both parties is very explicit: you support my acquisition of the Black Sea Straits, and I support your annexation of the Southern German States. Together, they aim to divide dominance over the Balkan Peninsula and the Mediterranean.
Beyond these core interests, as long as the interests of both parties do not clash, they should provide mutual support.
Russia and Austria have reached consensus in their respective expansions, signifying the nullification of the British-led “Straits Convention.” Without Austria’s support, it becomes much more challenging for Britain and France to suppress Russian ambitions in the Near East.
According to the agreement between both parties, Austria will acquire the Southern German regions, Bosnia and Herzegovina, a large portion of Serbia, and a significant portion of Romania, as well as parts of Bulgaria.
In terms of territorial size, this still amounts to less than half of what the Russians have. Moreover, in terms of economic development, there is a clear disparity between the two parties.
During this era, the Black Sea Straits were economically prosperous, and the Ottoman Empire’s heartland was located there. On the other hand, Austria had yet to fully develop areas outside of the Southern German States.
Looking at the comparison of gains between both parties, Franz also understood why in history, Russia and Austria had conflicts. The Russians were gaining too much, and the Austrian government was envious.
What’s even more critical is that once the Russians’ ambitions were fulfilled, the Austrian Empire would no longer be able to rest easy.
Initially, Franz thought that offering the benefits of the Black Sea Straits would be enough to satisfy the Russians, perhaps with a little extra in the Balkan Peninsula. However, reality proved him wrong, as the Russians also secured control over the Anatolian Peninsula.
Since the Russian Bear’s appetite seemed insatiable, Franz didn’t mind giving it a push. Austria acknowledged Russia’s control over the Anatolian Peninsula, and in return, the Russians made concessions in the Balkan Peninsula.
The designated spheres of influence in the Balkans, as agreed upon by both parties, weren’t of particular concern to Franz. If Austria could secure some territory there, that was good, but if not, it didn’t matter. The primary goal was to occupy Belgrade.
The Austrian Empire at this time didn’t have such a voracious appetite; it didn’t want to overextend itself. If not for the relatively low population in the Balkan Peninsula during this era, Franz would have been even more cautious about getting involved.
However, putting on a show was essential. If Austria’s appetite appeared too small, the Russians might start suspecting hidden motives.
Franz boldly speculated that, at this moment, celebrations were likely taking place in the St. Petersburg Court over this great victory.
In history, the Russians had dissolved the “Straits Convention,” but they had also sent troops to help Austria suppress the Hungarian uprising in exchange.
In this alternate timeline, with the Austrian government handling the rebellion without any major disruptions, there was no need for outside assistance, and negotiations for rewards for intervention did not even arise.
If the “Straits Convention” had still been in effect, the Crimean War might not have erupted later, as the Russians would not have taken on the combined forces of Britain, France, and Austria alone.
This is also why, in history, Austria’s betrayal of the Russians led to severe consequences. From the British and French perspective, if Austria hadn’t initially allowed the Russians to act with impunity, the war might not have escalated in the first place.
“Your Majesty, we are at a disadvantage with this treaty. If it ever becomes a reality, there will be no stopping the Russians!” Prime Minister Felix remarked with a furrowed brow.
The policy of annexing the Southern German States had been led by Prime Minister Felix, but upon seeing the cost of compromising with the Russians, he began to regret it.
“If the Russians don’t expand significantly, will we have a chance to annex the Southern German regions? Which European countries would be willing to see Austria continue to grow?” Franz asked in response.
Metternich, with a sense of urgency, replied, “Your Majesty, letting the Russians out is easy, but holding them back in is difficult.
Moreover, can we really annex the various Southern German States?
If the Russians truly occupy the aforementioned areas and we still haven’t secured the Southern German regions, Austria’s future may be at risk.”
Franz calmly stated, “Don’t let the pursuit of interests blind you. While this treaty appears highly favorable to the Russians on the surface, do you really believe that their national strength can support this plan?
The Russians seem to want to swallow the Ottoman Empire whole this time, and the Ottoman government will undoubtedly fight to the death. This war is unlikely to end in the short term.
The French have significant interests in the Near East, and they won’t allow unchecked Russian expansion. It’s possible that the Russians’ actions may even unite the French government to resist a common external threat.
As for the British, they’re a different story. They’ve never let their guard down against their Russian competitor. Supporting the Ottoman Empire is inevitable for them. They might even pull the French into the fray.
Don’t underestimate the British just because their strength seems focused on the seas; they have the wealth to continue a war as long as the Ottomans survive. Even if the Russians are formidable, they will eventually be exhausted.
Unless the Russian government is willing to cut its losses and cease all military actions after capturing Constantinople, focusing on defense in place, holding a fortress city with Russian strength is not difficult. After a few years, the British and French will naturally give up.
Then, the Russians can gradually erode the Ottoman Empire. If all goes well, with around three to five decades of effort, they can likely achieve their goal.
In such a long time, we can accomplish many things. By then, the Austrian Empire may not necessarily be weaker than Russia.”
When it came to the French, Franz couldn’t help but chuckle. In recent history, there were few who could rival the Habsburg dynasty in the path of ruin, and it would undoubtedly be the French.
The Ottoman Empire wasn’t in the same league, as their journey down the same path hadn’t officially started yet, and they still held vast territories.
From the 18th century onwards, the French embarked on their tragic journey, and anyone observant enough would notice that during their zenith, the French possessed a genuinely substantial colonial empire.
During the War of the Austrian Succession, France suffered a defeat and lost control of their Indian territories. In the Seven Years’ War, they ceded Canada. After supporting American independence, they found themselves in another conflict with the United States during the Quasi-War, and eventually, the United States forcibly acquired the Louisiana Territory from France (Acquiring 2.6 million square kilometers of land for a mere $15 million).
And that was just the beginning. If history remained unchanged, the French would continue to lose their control of Central America, including the Panama Canal, as well as their dominion over Egypt—a region they controlled.
The French downfall directly contributed to the enrichment and empowerment of the British and American empires. These two major empires would stand on the shoulders of the French as they rose to become world powers.
Of course, the Habsburg dynasty played a significant role in all this as well. Without their selfless contributions, the rise of the British and American empires wouldn't have been possible.
Franz finally managed to convince his cabinet, although the treaty had already been signed, and the die was cast, his efforts still had a significant impact.
In theory, as long as Britain and France exert themselves, it would be challenging for the Russians to achieve their ambitions. The inherent weakness of the Ottoman Empire hadn’t been fully revealed, and there was still hope for its recovery.
If the Russians chose a more conservative strategy and proceeded gradually, there would be even less to fear.
With three to five decades of time, it would be sufficient for the Austrian Empire to complete industrialization and, in the process, absorb the Southern German regions.
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