Chapter 113: Disrupting Prussian Deployments
Berlin.
Palmerston’s arrival brought troubling news for Frederick William IV, as the British were now aligning against Prussia.
“Your Majesty, the current circumstances are highly unfavorable. European nations are united against us, and even Austria, our primary supporter, offers reluctant assistance without substantial backing,” Prime Minister Joseph von Radowitz stated, his brow furrowed in concern.
Before the conclusion of the Crimean War, no European nation had the audacity to confront Russia alone on land, and Prussia was no different in this regard.
Prussia’s greatest misfortune was having Russia as its neighbor, and since victory seemed unattainable, fostering a friendly relationship appeared to be the wiser course. Prussia’s diplomatic history had always emphasized the importance of its ties with Russia.
“Is the bourgeois government still refusing to compromise?” Frederick William IV asked with concern.
Radowitz took a moment to think and replied, “Yes, Your Majesty. Currently, public morale is high, and with Austria expressing support for us, various German states are rallying behind us. They are trying to use public opinion to pressure us into a conflict with Russia.
The bourgeois government believes that now is not the right time to undermine the people’s morale. They want to wait until Austria resolves its internal issues and then join forces with us to resist Russia’s pressure.”
Indeed, Europe’s Russian gendarmes were truly formidable, something Prussia couldn’t match alone. However, after a Prussian-Austrian alliance, the situation would shift in their favor, as Russia wouldn’t be able to handle a two-front war.
But the real question is, why would Austria position itself against Russia to support Prussia’s territorial expansion? What motivates Austria’s involvement in this situation?
After some consideration, Frederick William IV remarked, “Instruct our associates to take action, calm down domestic public opinion, and inform Arnaud that it’s not the right time to challenge the Russians.”
No one anticipated that the leader of the liberal faction was actually loyal to the king, which explains why Prussia was able to swiftly achieve internal compromises after the outbreak of the revolution.
However, those familiar with history would recognize that this Prussian-Danish War was merely a conflict instigated by Prussia to divert attention from internal discord.
By engaging in foreign wars, they effectively redirected the nation's focus outward, setting the stage for a resurgence of counter-revolutionary forces.
Without someone to steer them, how could the bourgeois government dare to provoke a conflict with Russia before securing its power and status?
Whether it was orchestrating the Polish independence movement or instigating the Prussian-Danish War, both actions pushed the boundaries with Russia. If things escalated, the Kingdom of Prussia would find itself in a precarious situation.
To avoid the situation getting out of hand, Frederick William IV of Prussia halted the proceedings several times and attempted to improve relations. In a way, this also served as a way for Prussia to test its interactions with Russia.
In August 1848, due to international pressure, the Kingdom of Prussia made concessions to Russia, leading to a temporary suspension of hostilities in the Prussian-Danish War. Both nations entered into the “Malm? Ceasefire Agreement,” signifying a break in the conflict.
……
Vienna.
Upon receiving the “Malm? Ceasefire Agreement,” the Austrian government believed that the Prussian-Danish War had effectively come to an end. Prussia’s compromise left many nationalists in the German region dissatisfied, and Austria’s plan seemed to have succeeded.
However, only Franz knew that things weren’t as straightforward. Through this testing of waters, the Prussians had received the answer they sought: the Russians were not inclined to engage in a war with them readily.
The primary reason for this was that the Russian government had financial constraints, and the Kingdom of Denmark was similarly incapable of bearing the costs of this war. If a conflict were to erupt between the Kingdom of Prussia and Russia, many of the Russians’ plans would have to be put on hold.
“This ceasefire agreement arrived hastily, and its terms seem heavily biased in favor of the Danes. It’s quite perplexing, considering that Prussia had the upper hand on the battlefield. There’s no reason for them to accept such a disadvantageous deal.
Under normal circumstances, the Prussian government could have held out a bit longer, and the Danes would have likely conceded, perhaps even offering some advantages. How could they possibly accept such a loss?” Franz remarked.
Prussia, while not the top-tier among the European great powers, is still a recognized member of this prestigious group. How can they be willing to accept such a glaring disadvantage?
Despite the immense diplomatic pressure from various nations and the absence of military interference, what justifies their willingness to make such substantial concessions?
Metternich seemed to be onto something but wasn’t entirely certain, so he cautiously asked, “Your Highness, are you suggesting that the Prussians might have a hidden agenda?”
“Yes.”
“As the two largest states in the German region, we have always aspired to unify Germany. Do the Prussians not share this desire for German unification?
We’ve faced a string of setbacks, coming to the realization that given Austria’s circumstances, other nations wouldn’t permit our vision of German unity. Regrettably, we had no choice but to relinquish that dream.
However, should an opportunity arise for German unification, we won’t readily forgo it.
Now, Prussia has ignited the flames of nationalism, championed the idea of a greater German union, and introduced their unorthodox Lesser Germany plan. What’s the intent behind all of this?
It’s quite evident that the Prussians recognize their limitations when it comes to unifying Germany. Instead, they seem to be settling for an alternative plan—ousting us and establishing a smaller German empire.
Not too long ago, we thwarted their machinations at the Frankfurt Assembly. So why does Frederick William IV refuse to acknowledge the Frankfurt Assembly, which clearly leaned in Prussia’s favor?
Is it truly because the legitimacy of that crown was in question? From where I stand, he’s hesitant. By supporting the Frankfurt Assembly, Prussia would have positioned itself in opposition to the German states.
Given Prussia’s constraints in terms of power, spreading themselves too thin is untenable. Their recent compromise in the Prussian-Danish War likely signals their intention to shake things up within the German region.
The Foreign Ministry should maintain continuous dialogue with the governments of other German states, preventing Prussia from exploiting any opportunities. When necessary, we can even consider deploying troops to help stabilize the situation.”
Franz’s reasoned analysis showcased his prescient advantage.
In history, during this period, Prussia consistently formed alliances with German states, notably the “Three Emperors’ League” aiming to replace Austria’s control over the German Confederation and taking the initial steps toward German unification.
Despite facing setbacks, like the dissolution of the Three Emperors’ League due to Austria’s intervention, the Kingdom of Prussia significantly elevated its position in the German region.
Moreover, they cleverly used this opportunity to feign vulnerability, continuously emphasizing the shame of the “Olmützer Punktation” and downplaying the caution of other major powers towards them.
Franz’s insights were purely his own speculations, and he held a deep admiration for Prussia’s ability to achieve German unification within such constraints.
However, his current role required him to maintain a neutral stance, as he couldn’t afford to be seen as a staunch Prussian supporter—Peter III wouldn’t tolerate any bias.
Therefore, he had to approach Prussia’s actions with a healthy dose of skepticism, ensuring that no opportunities were left for potential adversaries.
With Austria well-prepared, it wouldn’t be a simple task for the Prussians to gather allies. When it came to wielding influence in the German region, Prussia simply couldn’t compete with Austria.
If the fate of this era were determined by nationwide referendums, Franz could already be preparing for his coronation as the German Emperor, as the House of Habsburg enjoyed a distinct advantage.
“Your Highness, at present, the situations in many German states are quite unstable. If the Prussians wish to get involved, they will likely use stabilizing these states as a condition to attract some of them into forming alliances.
Judging by their strength, the Prussians are likely to initially approach the northern German states before gradually expanding their influence into the southern German states.
Regarding the unification of Germany, it’s likely more of a smokescreen. Unifying northern Germany represents the limit to which other countries will tolerate the Kingdom of Prussia,” Metternich diplomatically assessed.
Considering the present international situation, it does appear to be the case. However, the future remains uncertain. Throughout history, the Kingdom of Prussia skillfully exploited the conflicts among major powers, systematically defeating its adversaries and unifying the German territory except for Austria.
Despite Austria’s undeniable influence in the German region due to geopolitical, religious, and economic factors, the bourgeoisie in northern German states often leaned toward the Kingdom of Prussia, providing Prussia with a popular base for unifying northern Germany.
Nonetheless, Austria cannot currently accept Prussia’s early unification of northern Germany because it would bring both sides closer in terms of power.
Franz has not yet completed domestic reforms, and the ascendance of a mighty Kingdom of Prussia would pose a threat to Austria’s interests.
“The Foreign Ministry should explore ways to disrupt Prussia’s plans and enhance our ties with the southern German states. The government is gearing up for negotiations with the Customs Union, and Austria will also participate.
Should Prussia obstruct, we will mobilize the southern German states to reform the Customs Union. When required, we might even contemplate the fragmentation of the German Confederation!” Franz stated with seriousness.
In northern Germany, Austria simply needs to slow down the unification efforts of the Kingdom of Prussia and, if necessary, engage in negotiations for mutual benefits. However, regarding southern Germany, Franz is resolute in not letting go easily.
Even if the annexation of these countries proves unfeasible, it's crucial to establish alliance relationships and employ political, economic, and cultural means for infiltration.
Deepening existing alliances is a favorable choice, and when necessary, everyone can collaborate to create a loose federal empire.
For instance, taking inspiration from the historical Holy Roman Empire, as long as there is nominal unity, future consolidation can gradually occur through economic and cultural influence.
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